Yes, Fluminense have taken 51 points over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 7.03 more than the 43.97 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Fluminense create 1.36 expected goals (xG) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 42.30 in all, and have scored 49 goals from those chances, 6.70 more than that xG would expect.
Fluminense allow 1.29 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 39.98 in all, and have conceded 39 goals from those chances, 0.98 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Jefferson Savarino has the most expected goals (xG) for Fluminense over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 5.06 xG in 23 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Hulk is next with 5.03 xG.
Fluminense have taken 7.0 points more than their chances warranted over 31 games: +6.7 goals against their xG, and +1.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 31 | 42.30 | 49 | +6.70 | 39.98 | 39 | +0.98 | 43.97 | 51 | +7.03 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.50 | 19 | +5.50 | 15.86 | 14 | +1.86 | 12.47 | 17 | +4.53 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.68 | 9 | +2.32 | 9.68 | 7 | +2.68 | 5.05 | 6 | +0.95 |
| Home | 16 | 26.14 | 29 | +2.86 | 19.05 | 16 | +3.05 | 26.79 | 36 | +9.21 |
| Away | 15 | 16.16 | 20 | +3.84 | 20.93 | 23 | -2.07 | 17.18 | 15 | -2.18 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (H) | 1-2 | 0.87 | 2.59 | 0.47 | 0 | L |
| 11 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (A) | 1-0 | 1.06 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 9 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (H) | 4-0 | 1.87 | 1.72 | 1.48 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (A) | 1-3 | 2.47 | 2.05 | 1.63 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (A) | 3-1 | 0.41 | 1.72 | 0.47 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (H) | 1-0 | 1.57 | 0.94 | 1.81 | 3 | W |
| 30 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (A) | 3-3 | 0.65 | 1.88 | 0.57 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (H) | 2-1 | 1.62 | 0.45 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (H) | 3-2 | 1.88 | 1.13 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 9 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (A) | 1-1 | 1.10 | 1.78 | 0.94 | 1 | L |
| 30 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (H) | 0-0 | 1.95 | 0.57 | 2.31 | 1 | W |
| 26 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio (A) | 1-1 | 1.14 | 0.92 | 1.52 | 1 | W |
| 17 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (H) | 1-1 | 1.93 | 1.39 | 1.73 | 1 | W |
| 31 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Cruzeiro (A) | 1-1 | 0.76 | 1.42 | 0.88 | 1 | L |
| 23 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Mirassol (A) | 1-0 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 1.27 | 0 | D |
| 16 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (H) | 2-1 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.34 | 3 | L |
| 9 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (H) | 2-2 | 1.02 | 1.59 | 0.98 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (A) | 2-0 | 1.01 | 1.65 | 0.93 | 0 | L |
| 26 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (H) | 2-1 | 3.15 | 0.35 | 2.77 | 3 | W |
| 19 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (A) | 2-3 | 0.90 | 0.99 | 1.27 | 3 | L |
| 12 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (H) | 1-2 | 1.53 | 2.37 | 0.92 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (A) | 1-1 | 0.71 | 0.81 | 1.23 | 1 | D |
| 2 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (H) | 3-1 | 1.75 | 0.59 | 2.19 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (H) | 1-0 | 0.73 | 1.63 | 0.74 | 3 | L |
| 19 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (A) | 3-2 | 1.09 | 0.90 | 1.49 | 0 | W |
| 15 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (H) | 3-2 | 2.05 | 0.44 | 2.44 | 3 | W |
| 12 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (A) | 0-2 | 1.28 | 0.93 | 1.62 | 3 | W |
| 26 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (A) | 2-1 | 1.38 | 1.96 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 12 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (H) | 1-0 | 1.53 | 0.36 | 2.26 | 3 | W |
| 5 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (A) | 1-1 | 1.60 | 1.69 | 1.33 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kennedy | attacker | 18 | 1127 | 5.00 | 9 | +4.00 | 0.40 |
| Ignácio | defender | 16 | 1219 | 1.03 | 3 | +1.97 | 0.08 |
| Rodrigo Castillo | attacker | 18 | 820 | 3.21 | 5 | +1.79 | 0.35 |
| AgustÃn Canobbio | attacker | 23 | 1676 | 3.33 | 5 | +1.68 | 0.18 |
| Hércules | midfielder | 26 | 1489 | 1.71 | 3 | +1.29 | 0.10 |
| Hulk | attacker | 12 | 795 | 5.03 | 6 | +0.97 | 0.57 |
| Jefferson Savarino | midfielder | 23 | 1327 | 5.06 | 6 | +0.94 | 0.34 |
| Luciano Acosta | midfielder | 26 | 1497 | 4.54 | 5 | +0.46 | 0.27 |
| Guilherme Arana | defender | 18 | 1097 | 0.85 | 1 | +0.15 | 0.07 |
| Nonato | midfielder | 17 | 1133 | 1.02 | 1 | -0.02 | 0.08 |
| Germán Cano | attacker | 9 | 137 | 1.04 | 1 | -0.04 | 0.69 |
| Kevin Serna | attacker | 30 | 1559 | 4.63 | 4 | -0.63 | 0.27 |
| Juan Pablo Freytes | defender | 19 | 1629 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.04 |
| Ganso | midfielder | 22 | 852 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.07 |
| Renê | defender | 21 | 1717 | 0.74 | 0 | -0.74 | 0.04 |
| Yeferson Soteldo | attacker | 21 | 1101 | 0.74 | 0 | -0.74 | 0.06 |
| Martinelli | midfielder | 22 | 1808 | 0.91 | 0 | -0.91 | 0.05 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 31 | 43.1 | 54 | 31.4 | 22 | 49.6 | 66 | +16.4 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 53.7 | 61 | 31.6 | 25 | 55.9 | 67 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Athletico PR | 31 | 42.3 | 49 | 36.9 | 37 | 45.8 | 53 | +7.2 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 31 | 42.3 | 49 | 40 | 39 | 44 | 51 | +7 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 31 | 42.1 | 42 | 38.9 | 35 | 44.7 | 50 | +5.3 |
| 6 | Coritiba | 31 | 32.9 | 38 | 48.5 | 49 | 33.7 | 39 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 45.2 | 50 | 41.3 | 46 | 46.1 | 51 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Bahia | 31 | 48.7 | 44 | 42.7 | 39 | 46.9 | 49 | +2.1 |
| 9 | Vitória | 30 | 30.5 | 33 | 43.6 | 44 | 34.3 | 36 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Santos | 31 | 41.1 | 48 | 38.2 | 46 | 44.2 | 45 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Grêmio | 31 | 32.4 | 34 | 51.2 | 44 | 32.1 | 31 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 31 | 39.2 | 44 | 42.8 | 48 | 40.8 | 39 | -1.8 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 31 | 41.2 | 36 | 47.8 | 44 | 38.9 | 36 | -2.9 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 31 | 45.8 | 36 | 37.5 | 35 | 46.4 | 42 | -4.4 |
| 15 | Bragantino | 31 | 46.3 | 39 | 41.1 | 36 | 46 | 41 | -5 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 28 | 31 | 33.3 | 38 | 37.6 | 32 | -5.6 |
| 17 | Remo | 31 | 35.1 | 34 | 45.9 | 49 | 35 | 26 | -9 |
| 18 | Internacional | 31 | 41.5 | 33 | 38.8 | 40 | 44.1 | 32 | -12.1 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 30 | 33.7 | 30 | 52.8 | 62 | 31.4 | 18 | -13.4 |
| 20 | Vasco da Gama | 30 | 52 | 36 | 32.9 | 43 | 50.4 | 35 | -15.4 |