Yes, Cruzeiro have taken 51 points over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 4.84 more than the 46.16 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Cruzeiro create 1.46 expected goals (xG) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 45.24 in all, and have scored 50 goals from those chances, 4.76 more than that xG would expect.
Cruzeiro allow 1.33 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 41.33 in all, and have conceded 46 goals from those chances, 4.67 more than that xGA would expect.
Kaio Jorge has the most expected goals (xG) for Cruzeiro over 31 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2026, 9.05 xG in 24 appearances, and has scored 12 goals; Matheus Pereira is next with 8.21 xG.
Cruzeiro have taken 4.8 points more than their chances warranted over 31 games: +4.8 goals against their xG, and -4.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 31 | 45.24 | 50 | +4.76 | 41.33 | 46 | -4.67 | 46.16 | 51 | +4.84 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 17.04 | 23 | +5.96 | 18.93 | 16 | +2.93 | 13.37 | 21 | +7.63 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.71 | 12 | +2.29 | 9.37 | 9 | +0.37 | 7.17 | 9 | +1.83 |
| Home | 15 | 23.88 | 26 | +2.12 | 13.94 | 16 | -2.06 | 27.29 | 28 | +0.71 |
| Away | 16 | 21.36 | 24 | +2.64 | 27.39 | 30 | -2.61 | 18.87 | 23 | +4.13 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio (A) | 2-4 | 1.33 | 2.17 | 0.90 | 3 | L |
| 13 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (A) | 4-2 | 3.04 | 3.30 | 1.29 | 0 | L |
| 8 Oct | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (H) | 2-0 | 2.72 | 0.98 | 2.37 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (A) | 1-3 | 1.05 | 0.79 | 1.55 | 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (A) | 2-1 | 1.57 | 2.13 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (H) | 3-1 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 2.22 | 3 | W |
| 30 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (A) | 3-1 | 0.60 | 4.01 | 0.12 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (H) | 2-1 | 1.63 | 1.10 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 16 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (A) | 1-2 | 1.15 | 1.43 | 1.17 | 3 | L |
| 9 Aug | Campeonato Brasileiro | Mirassol (H) | 3-1 | 1.00 | 1.62 | 0.95 | 3 | L |
| 31 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (A) | 0-1 | 2.21 | 1.18 | 2.02 | 3 | W |
| 26 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Botafogo (H) | 0-1 | 1.58 | 0.53 | 2.15 | 0 | W |
| 23 Jul | Campeonato Brasileiro | Internacional (A) | 1-2 | 1.28 | 1.61 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 31 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Fluminense (H) | 1-1 | 1.42 | 0.76 | 1.85 | 1 | W |
| 24 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Chapecoense (H) | 2-1 | 2.16 | 0.52 | 2.43 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Palmeiras (A) | 1-1 | 0.64 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bahia (A) | 1-2 | 1.86 | 1.19 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 3 May | Campeonato Brasileiro | Atlético-MG (H) | 1-3 | 1.30 | 1.52 | 1.22 | 0 | L |
| 25 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Remo (A) | 0-1 | 0.23 | 1.46 | 0.42 | 3 | L |
| 18 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Grêmio (H) | 2-0 | 2.00 | 0.72 | 2.22 | 3 | W |
| 12 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Bragantino (H) | 2-1 | 1.79 | 0.74 | 2.10 | 3 | W |
| 4 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | São Paulo (A) | 4-1 | 1.31 | 1.74 | 1.11 | 0 | L |
| 1 Apr | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vitória (H) | 3-0 | 1.70 | 0.12 | 2.54 | 3 | W |
| 22 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Santos (H) | 0-0 | 0.86 | 0.12 | 2.02 | 1 | W |
| 18 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Athletico PR (A) | 2-1 | 0.78 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 0 | L |
| 15 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Vasco (H) | 3-3 | 1.04 | 1.36 | 1.13 | 1 | L |
| 12 Mar | Campeonato Brasileiro | Flamengo (A) | 2-0 | 0.72 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 25 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Corinthians (H) | 1-1 | 0.72 | 0.37 | 1.62 | 1 | D |
| 11 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Mirassol (A) | 2-2 | 1.80 | 2.22 | 1.16 | 1 | L |
| 6 Feb | Campeonato Brasileiro | Coritiba (H) | 1-2 | 1.01 | 2.08 | 0.73 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian | midfielder | 17 | 1256 | 1.96 | 5 | +3.04 | 0.14 |
| Kaio Jorge | attacker | 24 | 1870 | 9.05 | 12 | +2.95 | 0.44 |
| Keny Arroyo | attacker | 26 | 1579 | 2.69 | 5 | +2.31 | 0.15 |
| Lucas Romero | midfielder | 21 | 1538 | 0.69 | 2 | +1.31 | 0.04 |
| João Marcelo | defender | 16 | 1197 | 0.90 | 2 | +1.10 | 0.07 |
| Kauã Moraes | defender | 10 | 468 | 0.98 | 2 | +1.02 | 0.19 |
| Matheus Pereira | midfielder | 28 | 2342 | 8.21 | 9 | +0.79 | 0.32 |
| Wanderson | attacker | 18 | 442 | 1.36 | 2 | +0.64 | 0.28 |
| Lucas Villalba | defender | 16 | 1094 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.03 |
| Kaique Kenji | attacker | 11 | 357 | 0.45 | 1 | +0.55 | 0.11 |
| Zé Lucas | midfielder | 10 | 445 | 1.59 | 2 | +0.41 | 0.32 |
| Wesley | attacker | 8 | 251 | 0.68 | 1 | +0.33 | 0.24 |
| Matheus Henrique | midfielder | 28 | 1392 | 0.74 | 1 | +0.26 | 0.05 |
| Néiser Villarreal | attacker | 14 | 655 | 3.08 | 3 | -0.08 | 0.42 |
| Bruno Rodrigues | attacker | 17 | 580 | 1.16 | 1 | -0.16 | 0.18 |
| Luis Sinisterra | attacker | 8 | 347 | 1.31 | 1 | -0.31 | 0.34 |
| Jonathan Jesus | defender | 20 | 1699 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.03 |
| Felipe Morais | midfielder | 6 | 341 | 1.99 | 1 | -0.99 | 0.52 |
| Kaiki | defender | 16 | 1418 | 1.00 | 0 | -1.00 | 0.06 |
| Gerson | midfielder | 27 | 2067 | 2.34 | 0 | -2.34 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 31 | 43.1 | 54 | 31.4 | 22 | 49.6 | 66 | +16.4 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 31 | 53.7 | 61 | 31.6 | 25 | 55.9 | 67 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Athletico PR | 31 | 42.3 | 49 | 36.9 | 37 | 45.8 | 53 | +7.2 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 31 | 42.3 | 49 | 40 | 39 | 44 | 51 | +7 |
| 5 | Atlético Mineiro | 31 | 42.1 | 42 | 38.9 | 35 | 44.7 | 50 | +5.3 |
| 6 | Coritiba | 31 | 32.9 | 38 | 48.5 | 49 | 33.7 | 39 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 31 | 45.2 | 50 | 41.3 | 46 | 46.1 | 51 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Bahia | 31 | 48.7 | 44 | 42.7 | 39 | 46.9 | 49 | +2.1 |
| 9 | Vitória | 30 | 30.5 | 33 | 43.6 | 44 | 34.3 | 36 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Santos | 31 | 41.1 | 48 | 38.2 | 46 | 44.2 | 45 | +0.8 |
| 11 | Grêmio | 31 | 32.4 | 34 | 51.2 | 44 | 32.1 | 31 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 31 | 39.2 | 44 | 42.8 | 48 | 40.8 | 39 | -1.8 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 31 | 41.2 | 36 | 47.8 | 44 | 38.9 | 36 | -2.9 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 31 | 45.8 | 36 | 37.5 | 35 | 46.4 | 42 | -4.4 |
| 15 | Bragantino | 31 | 46.3 | 39 | 41.1 | 36 | 46 | 41 | -5 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 28 | 31 | 33.3 | 38 | 37.6 | 32 | -5.6 |
| 17 | Remo | 31 | 35.1 | 34 | 45.9 | 49 | 35 | 26 | -9 |
| 18 | Internacional | 31 | 41.5 | 33 | 38.8 | 40 | 44.1 | 32 | -12.1 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 30 | 33.7 | 30 | 52.8 | 62 | 31.4 | 18 | -13.4 |
| 20 | Vasco da Gama | 30 | 52 | 36 | 32.9 | 43 | 50.4 | 35 | -15.4 |