No, Villarreal have taken 29 points over their last 20 La Liga games, 5.66 fewer than the 34.66 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Villarreal create 1.87 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 37.49 in all, and have scored 37 goals from those chances, 0.49 fewer than that xG would expect.
Villarreal allow 1.24 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 24.75 in all, and have conceded 28 goals from those chances, 3.25 more than that xGA would expect.
Georges Mikautadze has the most expected goals (xG) for Villarreal over their last 20 La Liga games, 8.81 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Ayoze Pérez is next with 5.40 xG.
Villarreal have taken 5.7 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -0.5 goals against their xG, and -3.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 37.49 | 37 | -0.49 | 24.75 | 28 | -3.25 | 34.66 | 29 | -5.66 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 20.74 | 18 | -2.74 | 13.16 | 16 | -2.84 | 17.68 | 11 | -6.68 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.99 | 9 | -1.99 | 6.46 | 8 | -1.54 | 9.08 | 6 | -3.08 |
| Home | 9 | 19.78 | 25 | +5.22 | 11.75 | 14 | -2.25 | 17.10 | 18 | +0.90 |
| Away | 11 | 17.71 | 12 | -5.71 | 13.00 | 14 | -1.00 | 17.56 | 11 | -6.56 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | La Liga | Real Madrid (A) | 1-0 | 0.79 | 1.09 | 1.10 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | La Liga | Levante (H) | 3-1 | 3.26 | 0.73 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| 17 Sep | La Liga | Málaga (A) | 1-3 | 3.57 | 0.64 | 2.72 | 3 | W |
| 14 Sep | La Liga | Betis (H) | 1-2 | 1.68 | 3.09 | 0.71 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | La Liga | Deportivo (H) | 2-3 | 1.69 | 0.91 | 1.91 | 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | La Liga | Alaves (A) | 1-0 | 1.98 | 0.70 | 2.22 | 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | La Liga | Atlético (A) | 2-2 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 2.42 | 1 | W |
| 16 Aug | La Liga | Racing (A) | 2-2 | 1.01 | 2.16 | 0.70 | 1 | L |
| 24 May | La Liga | Atlético (H) | 5-1 | 2.47 | 1.01 | 2.25 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | La Liga | Rayo (A) | 2-0 | 1.13 | 1.69 | 1.01 | 0 | L |
| 13 May | La Liga | Sevilla (H) | 2-3 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.35 | 0 | L |
| 10 May | La Liga | Mallorca (A) | 1-1 | 1.27 | 2.12 | 0.88 | 1 | L |
| 2 May | La Liga | Levante (H) | 5-1 | 2.07 | 0.84 | 2.18 | 3 | W |
| 26 Apr | La Liga | Celta (H) | 2-1 | 2.53 | 1.91 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 23 Apr | La Liga | Oviedo (A) | 1-1 | 1.73 | 1.12 | 1.79 | 1 | W |
| 12 Apr | La Liga | Athletic Club (A) | 1-2 | 1.36 | 1.55 | 1.25 | 3 | L |
| 6 Apr | La Liga | Girona (A) | 1-0 | 0.88 | 0.48 | 1.68 | 0 | W |
| 20 Mar | La Liga | Sociedad (H) | 3-1 | 3.03 | 0.80 | 2.55 | 3 | W |
| 13 Mar | La Liga | Alaves (A) | 1-1 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 1.79 | 1 | W |
| 8 Mar | La Liga | Elche (H) | 2-1 | 1.87 | 1.27 | 1.77 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Pépé | attacker | 17 | 1221 | 3.56 | 7 | +3.44 | 0.26 |
| Pape Gueye | midfielder | 18 | 1395 | 3.15 | 4 | +0.85 | 0.20 |
| Tajon Buchanan | attacker | 17 | 814 | 1.45 | 2 | +0.55 | 0.16 |
| Santiago Mouriño | defender | 15 | 1109 | 0.46 | 1 | +0.54 | 0.04 |
| Sergi Cardona | defender | 14 | 907 | 0.46 | 1 | +0.54 | 0.05 |
| Alberto Moleiro | attacker | 20 | 1253 | 2.65 | 3 | +0.35 | 0.19 |
| Gerard Moreno | attacker | 17 | 938 | 4.79 | 5 | +0.21 | 0.46 |
| Dani Parejo | midfielder | 10 | 356 | 0.79 | 1 | +0.21 | 0.20 |
| Alfon González | attacker | 8 | 311 | 1.02 | 1 | -0.02 | 0.30 |
| Thomas Partey | midfielder | 9 | 214 | 0.55 | 0 | -0.55 | 0.23 |
| Carlos Romero | defender | 6 | 421 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.13 |
| Santi Comesaña | midfielder | 17 | 1187 | 1.16 | 0 | -1.16 | 0.09 |
| Ayoze Pérez | attacker | 15 | 744 | 5.40 | 4 | -1.40 | 0.65 |
| Georges Mikautadze | attacker | 19 | 1197 | 8.81 | 7 | -1.81 | 0.66 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 14 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.9 | 19 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 9.4 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 8.5 | 8 | 14.4 | 19 | +4.6 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 8 | 27.9 | 34 | 7.1 | 7 | 19.7 | 24 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 10.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18 | 19 | 9.2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 9.1 | 12 | 10.6 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 9.2 | 11 | 13.3 | 16 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Getafe | 8 | 6.8 | 4 | 11.8 | 10 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 8 | 10.6 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Levante | 7 | 9.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 9.6 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 7.3 | 8 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 8 | 9.8 | 8 | 12.2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 6 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 6 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Málaga | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 7.9 | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 12.2 | 17 | 10.6 | 6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 8 | 11.4 | 11 | 9.3 | 11 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 20 | Villarreal | 8 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 14.4 | 8 | -6.4 |