No, Tranmere have taken 12 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, within 0.20 of the 12.20 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Tranmere create 1.32 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 13.22 in all, and have scored 13 goals from those chances, 0.22 fewer than that xG would expect.
Tranmere allow 1.60 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 16.04 in all, and have conceded 13 goals from those chances, 3.04 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Tom Ince has the most expected goals (xG) for Tranmere over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 3.13 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Dylan Jones is next with 2.38 xG.
Tranmere's results and their chances agree, within 0.2 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 13.22 | 13 | -0.22 | 16.04 | 13 | +3.04 | 12.20 | 12 | -0.20 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.87 | 4 | -2.87 | 6.97 | 8 | -1.03 | 7.05 | 3 | -4.05 |
| Home | 5 | 8.85 | 8 | -0.85 | 7.52 | 4 | +3.52 | 7.73 | 9 | +1.27 |
| Away | 5 | 4.37 | 5 | +0.63 | 8.52 | 9 | -0.48 | 4.47 | 3 | -1.47 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Rochdale (H) | 1-1 | 1.95 | 0.61 | 2.28 | 1 | W |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Chesterfield (A) | 4-2 | 0.37 | 2.88 | 0.18 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Walsall (H) | 1-1 | 2.75 | 1.25 | 2.23 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Exeter City (A) | 0-0 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 1.22 | 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Gillingham (A) | 2-0 | 1.15 | 1.48 | 1.14 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Oldham (H) | 2-0 | 1.90 | 2.56 | 1.05 | 3 | L |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Rotherham (H) | 2-2 | 1.08 | 1.75 | 0.93 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Newport (A) | 2-2 | 1.51 | 1.76 | 1.23 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Port Vale (A) | 1-1 | 0.69 | 1.65 | 0.70 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Shrewsbury (H) | 2-0 | 1.17 | 1.35 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Slater | defender | 9 | 715 | 0.16 | 1 | +0.84 | 0.02 |
| Tom Conlon | midfielder | 10 | 608 | 0.17 | 1 | +0.83 | 0.03 |
| Zane Okoro | attacker | 9 | 452 | 1.30 | 2 | +0.70 | 0.26 |
| Bobby Faulkner | defender | 7 | 630 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.04 |
| Dylan Jones | attacker | 8 | 450 | 2.38 | 3 | +0.62 | 0.48 |
| Jordan Davies | midfielder | 6 | 304 | 0.94 | 1 | +0.06 | 0.28 |
| Will Vaulks | midfielder | 10 | 900 | 0.61 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.06 |
| Charlie Whitaker | midfielder | 9 | 690 | 1.64 | 1 | -0.64 | 0.21 |
| Joe Ironside | attacker | 10 | 623 | 1.66 | 1 | -0.66 | 0.24 |
| Tom Ince | attacker | 10 | 899 | 3.13 | 2 | -1.13 | 0.31 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |