Yes, Swindon have taken 11 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 2.04 more than the 8.96 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Swindon create 0.99 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 9.86 in all, and have scored 9 goals from those chances, 0.86 fewer than that xG would expect.
Swindon allow 1.80 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 17.98 in all, and have conceded 14 goals from those chances, 3.98 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Aaron Drinan has the most expected goals (xG) for Swindon over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 4.24 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Ollie Clarke is next with 1.22 xG.
Swindon have taken 2.0 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: -0.9 goals against their xG, and +4.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 9.86 | 9 | -0.86 | 17.98 | 14 | +3.98 | 8.96 | 11 | +2.04 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.49 | 1 | -3.49 | 9.51 | 8 | +1.51 | 3.84 | 1 | -2.84 |
| Home | 5 | 7.21 | 9 | +1.79 | 7.60 | 5 | +2.60 | 6.54 | 10 | +3.46 |
| Away | 5 | 2.65 | 0 | -2.65 | 10.38 | 9 | +1.38 | 2.42 | 1 | -1.42 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Crewe (H) | 0-1 | 0.81 | 1.77 | 0.74 | 0 | L |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Rochdale (A) | 1-0 | 0.87 | 1.79 | 0.77 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Accrington (H) | 1-1 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 1.29 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Salford (A) | 1-0 | 0.68 | 1.60 | 0.71 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | League Two | York (A) | 4-0 | 0.70 | 2.78 | 0.33 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Colchester (H) | 3-1 | 2.72 | 2.28 | 1.63 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Port Vale (H) | 3-1 | 1.47 | 0.98 | 1.72 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Oldham (A) | 3-0 | 0.21 | 3.05 | 0.10 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Cheltenham (H) | 2-1 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Northampton (A) | 0-0 | 0.19 | 1.16 | 0.51 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Middlemas | midfielder | 6 | 304 | 0.13 | 1 | +0.87 | 0.04 |
| Louis Millard | centre-forward | 7 | 208 | 0.18 | 1 | +0.82 | 0.08 |
| Aaron Drinan | attacker | 10 | 881 | 4.24 | 5 | +0.76 | 0.43 |
| Joseph Hungbo | attacker | 6 | 253 | 1.04 | 1 | -0.04 | 0.37 |
| Ollie Clarke | midfielder | 9 | 582 | 1.22 | 1 | -0.22 | 0.19 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |