No, Notts County have taken 7 points over their last 8 League One games, 3.12 fewer than the 10.12 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Notts County create 1.18 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 League One games, 9.45 in all, and have scored 8 goals from those chances, 1.45 fewer than that xG would expect.
Notts County allow 1.32 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 League One games, 10.58 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 0.42 more than that xGA would expect.
Luka Smyth has the most expected goals (xG) for Notts County over their last 8 League One games, 1.83 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Oliver Cooper is next with 1.80 xG.
Notts County have taken 3.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 8 games: -1.5 goals against their xG, and -0.4 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 9.45 | 8 | -1.45 | 10.58 | 11 | -0.42 | 10.12 | 7 | -3.12 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.20 | 3 | -1.20 | 7.16 | 7 | +0.16 | 4.96 | 2 | -2.96 |
| Home | 4 | 6.06 | 4 | -2.06 | 3.07 | 5 | -1.93 | 7.05 | 4 | -3.05 |
| Away | 4 | 3.39 | 4 | +0.61 | 7.51 | 6 | +1.51 | 3.07 | 3 | -0.07 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Oxford Utd (H) | 1-2 | 0.81 | 1.08 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | League One | Reading (A) | 2-0 | 0.52 | 2.44 | 0.32 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | League One | Bradford (H) | 0-1 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 1.20 | 0 | D |
| 5 Sep | League One | Huddersfield (A) | 1-1 | 1.08 | 1.85 | 0.89 | 1 | L |
| 1 Sep | League One | Doncaster (A) | 1-1 | 1.24 | 1.15 | 1.42 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | League One | Burton (H) | 2-1 | 2.62 | 0.17 | 2.77 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League One | Luton (A) | 2-2 | 0.55 | 2.07 | 0.44 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | League One | Leicester (H) | 1-1 | 2.08 | 1.18 | 1.95 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Cooper | midfielder | 8 | 642 | 1.80 | 3 | +1.20 | 0.25 |
| Rory Finneran | midfielder | 6 | 494 | 0.45 | 1 | +0.55 | 0.08 |
| Luka Smyth | attacker | 8 | 404 | 1.83 | 2 | +0.17 | 0.41 |
| Callum Roberts | attacker | 8 | 435 | 0.91 | 1 | +0.09 | 0.19 |
| Conor Grant | midfielder | 8 | 259 | 0.92 | 1 | +0.08 | 0.32 |
| Nick Tsaroulla | midfielder | 8 | 641 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.07 |
| Hindolo Mustapha | midfielder | 7 | 342 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.16 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |