No, Wimbledon have taken 16 points over their last 20 League One games, within 2.34 of the 18.34 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Wimbledon create 1.02 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League One games, 20.31 in all, and have scored 12 goals from those chances, 8.31 fewer than that xG would expect.
Wimbledon allow 1.74 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League One games, 34.80 in all, and have conceded 33 goals from those chances, 1.80 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Jayden Stockley has the most expected goals (xG) for Wimbledon over their last 20 League One games, 2.67 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Omar Bugiel is next with 1.75 xG.
Wimbledon's results and their chances agree, within 2.3 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 20.31 | 12 | -8.31 | 34.80 | 33 | +1.80 | 18.34 | 16 | -2.34 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 9.84 | 7 | -2.84 | 16.41 | 14 | +2.41 | 9.75 | 12 | +2.25 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.95 | 5 | -0.95 | 8.22 | 3 | +5.22 | 5.64 | 8 | +2.36 |
| Home | 10 | 10.93 | 6 | -4.93 | 20.38 | 17 | +3.38 | 8.28 | 9 | +0.72 |
| Away | 10 | 9.38 | 6 | -3.38 | 14.42 | 16 | -1.58 | 10.06 | 7 | -3.06 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Plymouth (A) | 2-1 | 1.57 | 2.26 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League One | Cambridge (A) | 1-1 | 0.83 | 1.76 | 0.75 | 1 | L |
| 17 Sep | League One | MK Dons (H) | 0-0 | 1.15 | 0.96 | 1.50 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | League One | Doncaster (H) | 1-0 | 1.08 | 2.46 | 0.62 | 3 | L |
| 7 Sep | League One | Bromley (A) | 0-2 | 1.32 | 0.78 | 1.77 | 3 | W |
| 2 Sep | League One | Burton (A) | 4-1 | 1.38 | 0.96 | 1.67 | 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | League One | Wigan (H) | 1-0 | 1.29 | 2.58 | 0.70 | 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | League One | Reading (H) | 0-0 | 0.47 | 1.34 | 0.67 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | League One | Huddersfield (A) | 3-0 | 0.46 | 1.04 | 0.83 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | League One | Huddersfield (H) | 0-4 | 0.29 | 2.27 | 0.24 | 0 | L |
| 25 Apr | League One | Wigan (A) | 0-1 | 0.78 | 1.25 | 0.98 | 3 | L |
| 18 Apr | League One | Plymouth (H) | 1-3 | 1.41 | 3.25 | 0.53 | 0 | L |
| 15 Apr | League One | Stockport (H) | 0-2 | 0.61 | 1.26 | 0.83 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | League One | Burton (A) | 1-0 | 0.27 | 1.23 | 0.55 | 0 | L |
| 6 Apr | League One | Luton (H) | 0-3 | 0.41 | 2.17 | 0.33 | 0 | L |
| 3 Apr | League One | Lincoln (A) | 1-0 | 0.94 | 1.91 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 28 Mar | League One | Stockport (A) | 3-0 | 1.47 | 1.65 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | League One | Peterborough (H) | 1-1 | 2.73 | 1.61 | 2.01 | 1 | W |
| 17 Mar | League One | Orient (H) | 2-4 | 1.49 | 2.48 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | League One | Stevenage (A) | 1-0 | 0.36 | 1.58 | 0.48 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Hippolyte | midfielder | 13 | 1061 | 1.40 | 3 | +1.60 | 0.12 |
| Jayden Stockley | attacker | 9 | 753 | 2.67 | 4 | +1.33 | 0.32 |
| Robert Junior Nkeng | attacker | 12 | 743 | 1.01 | 2 | +0.99 | 0.12 |
| Antwoine Hackford | attacker | 11 | 345 | 0.93 | 1 | +0.07 | 0.24 |
| Ryan Anthony Johnson | defender | 16 | 1374 | 1.22 | 1 | -0.22 | 0.08 |
| Alistair Smith | midfielder | 19 | 1674 | 1.31 | 1 | -0.31 | 0.07 |
| Marcus Browne | attacker | 8 | 544 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.09 |
| Layton Stewart | attacker | 5 | 239 | 0.64 | 0 | -0.64 | 0.24 |
| Aron Sasu | attacker | 14 | 642 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.10 |
| S. Seddon | defender | 20 | 1800 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.04 |
| D. Sweeney | defender | 7 | 574 | 1.24 | 0 | -1.24 | 0.19 |
| Callum Maycock | midfielder | 18 | 1265 | 1.61 | 0 | -1.61 | 0.11 |
| Zack Nelson | midfielder | 19 | 851 | 1.72 | 0 | -1.72 | 0.18 |
| Omar Bugiel | attacker | 7 | 462 | 1.75 | 0 | -1.75 | 0.34 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |