Yes, Cheltenham have taken 15 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 4.49 more than the 10.51 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Cheltenham create 1.15 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 11.50 in all, and have scored 16 goals from those chances, 4.50 more than that xG would expect.
Cheltenham allow 1.70 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 16.95 in all, and have conceded 16 goals from those chances, 0.95 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Charlie McCann has the most expected goals (xG) for Cheltenham over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 2.83 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Andreas Weimann is next with 2.76 xG.
Cheltenham have taken 4.5 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +4.5 goals against their xG, and +1.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 11.50 | 16 | +4.50 | 16.95 | 16 | +0.95 | 10.51 | 15 | +4.49 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.83 | 6 | +0.17 | 7.98 | 7 | +0.98 | 5.50 | 7 | +1.50 |
| Home | 5 | 4.75 | 9 | +4.25 | 9.41 | 8 | +1.41 | 3.91 | 10 | +6.09 |
| Away | 5 | 6.75 | 7 | +0.25 | 7.54 | 8 | -0.46 | 6.60 | 5 | -1.60 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Salford (H) | 0-2 | 0.27 | 1.06 | 0.62 | 0 | L |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Accrington (A) | 2-0 | 0.48 | 2.40 | 0.31 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Chesterfield (H) | 2-1 | 1.02 | 2.14 | 0.71 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Colchester (A) | 1-1 | 1.95 | 0.72 | 2.20 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Crawley (A) | 1-3 | 2.11 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Grimsby (H) | 2-2 | 1.26 | 1.66 | 1.11 | 1 | L |
| 1 Sep | League Two | York (H) | 3-2 | 1.78 | 2.12 | 1.20 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Barnet (A) | 2-2 | 1.21 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Swindon (A) | 2-1 | 1.00 | 0.78 | 1.52 | 0 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Rotherham (H) | 2-1 | 0.42 | 2.43 | 0.27 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie McCann | midfielder | 9 | 810 | 2.83 | 7 | +4.17 | 0.31 |
| Jake Evans | attacker | 10 | 737 | 1.29 | 3 | +1.71 | 0.16 |
| Andreas Weimann | attacker | 10 | 702 | 2.76 | 4 | +1.24 | 0.35 |
| Ryan Broom | midfielder | 8 | 471 | 0.96 | 2 | +1.04 | 0.18 |
| Kirsten Otchere | attacker | 9 | 151 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| Joseph Tomlinson | midfielder | 9 | 701 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.07 |
| J. Shipley | midfielder | 10 | 709 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.07 |
| Freddie Willcox | defender | 9 | 280 | 0.65 | 0 | -0.65 | 0.21 |
| Robbie Cundy | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.77 | 0 | -0.77 | 0.08 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |