Yes, Bolton have taken 13 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 1.53 more than the 11.47 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Bolton create 1.45 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 14.46 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 0.54 more than that xG would expect.
Bolton allow 1.83 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 18.31 in all, and have conceded 18 goals from those chances, 0.31 fewer than that xGA would expect.
S. Dalby has the most expected goals (xG) for Bolton over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 4.10 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Rúben Rodrigues is next with 1.97 xG.
Bolton have taken 1.5 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +0.5 goals against their xG, and +0.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 14.46 | 15 | +0.54 | 18.31 | 18 | +0.31 | 11.47 | 13 | +1.53 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.36 | 11 | +2.64 | 9.20 | 9 | +0.20 | 6.40 | 9 | +2.60 |
| Home | 5 | 8.27 | 6 | -2.27 | 8.33 | 7 | +1.33 | 6.67 | 6 | -0.67 |
| Away | 5 | 6.19 | 9 | +2.81 | 9.98 | 11 | -1.02 | 4.80 | 7 | +2.20 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Wolves (A) | 1-3 | 1.47 | 2.44 | 0.86 | 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Stoke (H) | 1-2 | 3.37 | 1.02 | 2.53 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Championship | Norwich (A) | 3-4 | 1.33 | 0.85 | 1.72 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Cardiff (H) | 1-0 | 0.46 | 2.43 | 0.29 | 3 | L |
| 8 Sep | Championship | West Ham (H) | 2-3 | 1.73 | 2.46 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | Championship | Millwall (A) | 4-0 | 1.02 | 2.35 | 0.63 | 0 | L |
| 1 Sep | Championship | Sheff Utd (A) | 3-2 | 2.21 | 2.25 | 1.38 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Lincoln (H) | 0-1 | 1.92 | 1.32 | 1.76 | 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | Championship | QPR (A) | 0-0 | 0.16 | 2.09 | 0.21 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Preston (H) | 2-1 | 0.79 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 3 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thierry Gale | attacker | 10 | 677 | 0.75 | 3 | +2.25 | 0.10 |
| Atsuki Ito | midfielder | 4 | 156 | 0.31 | 2 | +1.69 | 0.18 |
| Ethan Erhahon | midfielder | 9 | 642 | 0.21 | 1 | +0.79 | 0.03 |
| Xavier Simons | midfielder | 4 | 185 | 0.26 | 1 | +0.74 | 0.13 |
| Theo Bair | attacker | 5 | 149 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.45 | 0.33 |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | defender | 9 | 660 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.11 |
| Josh Sheehan | midfielder | 10 | 896 | 0.86 | 1 | +0.14 | 0.09 |
| S. Dalby | attacker | 10 | 754 | 4.10 | 4 | -0.10 | 0.49 |
| Kyliane Dong | attacker | 8 | 361 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.16 |
| C. Forino | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.11 |
| Samuel Iling-Junior | midfielder | 10 | 487 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.14 |
| J. McAtee | attacker | 6 | 333 | 0.93 | 0 | -0.93 | 0.25 |
| Rúben Rodrigues | midfielder | 7 | 370 | 1.97 | 1 | -0.97 | 0.48 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |