When did the Patriots play the Seahawks in Week 1?

Wednesday 9 September 2026, 8:20 PM ET, at Lumen Field.

What was the spread for Patriots vs Seahawks?

The Seahawks were 3-point favourites at the close, with a total of 44.5 points.

Who won Patriots vs Seahawks in Week 1?

The Seahawks won 13-10 at home.

Who covered the spread in Patriots vs Seahawks?

Nobody: the Seahawks won by exactly 3, a push.

Did Patriots vs Seahawks go over or under?

Under: 23 points against a total of 44.5.

Who had the most passing yards in Patriots vs Seahawks?

Drew Lock (SEA): 16/22, 187 yards, 1 TD.

Who had the most rushing yards in Patriots vs Seahawks?

Jadarian Price (SEA): 10 carries, 52 yards.

Who had the most receiving yards in Patriots vs Seahawks?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA): 8 receptions, 122 yards, 1 TD.

Who leads the Patriots vs Seahawks series?

The Seahawks lead 4-0 over the 4 games since 2020.

What is the average score when the Patriots play the Seahawks?

43.3 points a game: the Patriots average 18.3 and the Seahawks 25 in their 4 meetings since 2020.

Patriots at Seahawks Preview: Week 1 Opener Picks, Odds and Projections

Published September 7, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The Super Bowl LX rematch opens the 2026 season in Seattle on Wednesday night. The model's score, the best bets, the scorer prices and the props for Patriots at Seahawks.

The rematch, seven months on

The season opens on a Wednesday, which tells you everything about how the league feels about this one. New England at Seattle, Lumen Field, 8:20pm Eastern on 9 September, which is 01:20 BST on Thursday morning for anyone setting an alarm in the UK. Seven months ago these two met at Levi's Stadium for Super Bowl LX and the Seahawks won it 29-13 as four and a half point favourites, a game that went under the 45.5 total and was never as close as the pre-game chatter. Seattle have won all three meetings since 2024 and covered two of them.

The 2025 tape is a pair of top-three offences and top-four defences staring at each other. New England scored 28.8 a game (second in the league) on 6.4 yards a play (first) with a 71.9% completion rate (first). Seattle scored 28.4 (third) and allowed 17.2 (first), with 47 sacks to New England's 35. The one lopsided number is turnovers: the Patriots finished plus three, the Seahawks minus three, and Seattle still won the title. The forward power rankings have Seattle 12th and New England 17th, which is the model telling you it expects both to come back to the pack a little.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid gives the Patriots the edge through the air. Drake Maye's passing game (260 yards a game last season, fourth) against a Seattle pass defence that ranked only 12th is the biggest single lean in the game at 58% New England, and it is the reason the model has this closer than the Super Bowl was. Everything on the ground leans the other way: Seattle's rush defence was third in the league and the model gives it the edge over New England's backs, and the Seahawks run game has to work against a Patriots front that allowed 101.7 rushing yards a game, sixth best.

The injury list matters more than usual for an opener. Seattle are without cornerback Terrion Arnold, which is a problem against the league's most accurate passer, and their backfield is thin: Zach Charbonnet is on the PUP list and Kenny McIntosh is questionable, which is why the model gives rookie Jadarian Price the lead role at 7.8 carries and 34.8 yards. His Bet365 rushing line is 53.5. The model clears that only 24 times in 100, and the under is the prop I would build around if the backfield news holds.

The model's number

Seattle 24.2, New England 20.9. A 3.2-point Seahawks win and a 45.1 total, with Seattle winning 59.5 times in 100. The market has Seattle by three and a half, a 44.5 total and a home moneyline of 1.60, which implies 62.5%. That is the market and the model agreeing on the shape of the game and disagreeing on two points of it.

The spread is a pass. The model's margin sits right on the three, the most common winning margin in the sport, and at +3.5 the Patriots are a 51.2% call against a 51.1% market. There is nothing there. The total is the bet: the model makes the over 44.5 a 53.2% call against 48.5% implied at 2.06 on Polymarket, three stars, and it is the play. The Patriots moneyline at 2.67 on Kalshi carries the model's 40.9% against a 37.5% implied, two and a half stars, half a point: the model likes New England more than the market does, but not enough to expect them to win.

Over 44.5 points — Total, NE @ SEA, Wed 8:20pm ET / Thu 01:20 BST — at 2.06 — Model total 45.1. Two top-three offences and the market has priced the Super Bowl's 42 points rather than the regular season's. Game preview
Patriots to win — Moneyline, NE @ SEA — at 2.67 — A 41% shot at a 37.5% price. The passing matchup is the case; Seattle's defence at home is the counter. Game preview

Scorers and props

Bet365 have only the scorer markets and rushing yards up for this one at the time of writing, so the prop board is thin and will fill out on Tuesday. On the scorers, the model's favourite price is Rhamondre Stevenson at 2.45: 0.4 projected touchdowns and a model probability of 52% against a 41% implied, in a backfield where Lan Larison is questionable. A.J. Brown, projected 60.9 receiving yards and half a touchdown as the Patriots' lead target, is the higher-volume play at a shorter price. For Seattle, Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 63.3 yards and half a score, and tight end AJ Barner at 3.70 is the model's value scorer at 35%.

The rushing-yards lines are where Week 1 looks softest. Drake Maye projects 30.7 rushing yards against a 25.5 line, a 60% over. The Price under 53.5 is the other side of the same coin. Sam Darnold projects 204 passing yards and 1.4 touchdowns; when his passing line posts, the model will have a view, and the game page will carry it.

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD — RB, NE — at 2.45 — Lead back in a 21-point projection with the model finding the end zone more often than the price allows. Game preview
Drake Maye over 25.5 rushing yards — QB, NE — at 1.90 — Projected 30.7 on the ground. The line is set for a pocket passer and Maye is not one. Game preview

The verdict

Seattle by a field goal in a game that goes over the number. The over is the bet, the Patriots moneyline is the half-point speculation, and the spread is a coin on a key number that I am happy to leave alone. If Terrion Arnold's absence turns into a second Seahawks corner missing by Wednesday, the over gets stronger and so does the Patriots price; if the backfield news in Seattle clears up, the Price under goes away. Check the game page on Wednesday and the injury table before you bet.

Put it to work

Game page: Patriots at Seahawks Live lines across eight books, the model's edge table and every projected prop.
Injuries Both rosters' designations, updated through the week.