When did the Lions play the Bills in Week 2?

Thursday 17 September 2026, 8:15 PM ET, at Highmark Stadium.

What was the spread for Lions vs Bills?

The Bills were 5.5-point favourites at the close, with a total of 54.5 points.

Who covered the spread in Lions vs Bills?

The Bills covered as 5.5-point favourites: Lions 31, Bills 41.

Did Lions vs Bills go over or under?

Over: 72 points against a total of 54.5.

Who had the most passing yards in Lions vs Bills?

Jared Goff (DET): 26/38, 327 yards, 4 TDs.

Who had the most rushing yards in Lions vs Bills?

James Cook III (BUF): 21 carries, 135 yards, 1 TD.

Who had the most receiving yards in Lions vs Bills?

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): 9 receptions, 142 yards, 2 TDs.

Who leads the Bills vs Lions series?

The Bills lead 4-0 over the 4 games since 2018.

What is the average score when the Bills play the Lions?

60.5 points a game: the Bills average 32.8 and the Lions 27.8 in their 4 meetings since 2018.

Lions at Bills Preview: Thursday Night Football Week 2 Picks, Odds and Projections

Published September 17, 2026 by Statz NFL.

The highest total of the week and a 48-42 last meeting. The model has Buffalo by eight and the game under the number: the picks, the scorer prices, the Josh Allen under and the props for Lions at Bills.

The shootout the market remembers

Thursday Night Football, 17 September, 8:15pm Eastern at Highmark Stadium, which is 01:15 BST on Friday morning. The last time these two met, in December 2024, the Bills won 48-42 in a game that cleared a 55.5 total by 35 points, and the market has not forgotten: the 54.5 total here is the highest on the Week 2 board by four points. Buffalo have won all three meetings in the series, Detroit have covered two of them, and the average total across the three is 56.7.

Both come in off a Week 1 win that looked like the team they are. Buffalo scored 36 at Houston on 8.1 yards a play, second in the league, with 334 passing yards. Detroit beat New Orleans 31-30 in overtime with 165 rushing yards and five sacks, the most in the league, but they also allowed 410 passing yards, the most in the league by a distance. One week of tape is one week of tape, and the model weighs it lightly, but the forward power rankings tell the same story: Buffalo first, Detroit 13th.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid has one number that dominates the rest: Buffalo's passing game against Detroit's pass defence is a 97% Bills edge, the largest on the Week 2 board. Josh Allen against a secondary that just gave up 410 yards is the whole case for the favourite. Everything else leans Detroit: their passing game against Buffalo's pass defence (71%), their run game against a Bills front that allowed 124 rushing yards in Houston (68%), and their run defence against Buffalo's backs (73%). Detroit can move the ball. The question is whether they can stop Allen, and the model does not think so.

The injury report is a Detroit problem. Guard Christian Mahogany and tackle Blake Miller are out, which is two starters off an offensive line on a four-day turnaround, and defensive end Josh Paschal is out too. Buffalo's only listed absence is receiver Tyrell Shavers on the PUP list. Both teams are on four days' rest, so neither has the edge there.

The model's number

Bills 29.6, Lions 21.7. Buffalo by 7.9 and a 51.3 total, with the Bills winning 72 times in 100. The market has Buffalo by five and a half, a 54.5 total and a home moneyline of 1.48, which implies 68.2%. The model is two and a half points more bullish on Buffalo than the spread and three points lower than the total, and it is the second half of that which produces the bets.

The moneyline is the star-rated pick: Bills to win at 1.48 on Kalshi is a 72.1% model call against 68.2% implied, four stars, and it is the anchor of this week's treble. Buffalo minus five and a half at 1.94 is a 57.8% call against 50.3% but sits outside the star card, so it is a half-point lean rather than a bet. The under 54.5 at 2.08 on Kalshi is the interesting one: a 59.6% model call, ten points of raw edge, and zero stars. If the model is missing something here, it may simply be 48-42. Two of the three meetings went under, the model total is 51, and a plus-money under on the highest total of the week is a half point I am happy to have.

Bills to beat the Lions — Moneyline, DET @ BUF, Thu 8:15pm ET / Fri 01:15 BST — at 1.48 — Model score 30-22. A 97% passing edge for Allen against the league's worst pass defence after one week. Game preview
Under 54.5 points — Total, DET @ BUF — at 2.08 — Model total 51.3. Zero stars; half a point because the number is priced on one December shootout. Game preview

Scorers and props

The scorer board is short prices and one value. Jahmyr Gibbs at 1.35 is the model's 75% call and fair; James Cook at 1.66 (55%) and Josh Allen at 1.74 (52%) are both a shade under their prices. Amon-Ra St. Brown at 2.10 is a 45% call. The value is at tight end: Sam LaPorta at 3.25 is a 38% model probability against 31% implied, the biggest scorer gap in the game, and DJ Moore, now a Bills receiver, at 2.60 is a 42% call against 38%. LaPorta is the one I would add.

The star-rated prop is the one the market will not like: Josh Allen under 255.5 passing yards at 1.86, five stars, with the model at 241 and a 61% under. That is not a contradiction of the Bills pick. The model has Allen running for 39 yards and Buffalo leading by a touchdown, which is a game where the passing volume dies in the fourth quarter. Jared Goff under 269.5 is the same idea from the other side, with a projection of 234 and only a 27% over. The soft line in the game is Joshua Palmer over 11.5 receiving yards at 1.86, projected 28 with a 76% over, and his over 1.5 receptions at 2.50 (64%) is the better price on the same thought. Dalton Kincaid under 51.5 receiving yards (projected 42) rounds out a board that leans under almost everywhere.

Josh Allen under 255.5 passing yards — QB, BUF — at 1.86 — Projected 241 passing and 39 rushing. A lead and a running quarterback take the volume away late. Game preview
Joshua Palmer over 1.5 receptions — WR, BUF — at 2.50 — Projected 2.2 catches and 28 yards against a line set for a decoy. The receiving-yards over at 1.86 is the safer version. Game preview
Sam LaPorta anytime TD — TE, DET — at 3.25 — The biggest scorer gap in the game. Detroit throw to the tight end when the line is beaten, and it will be. Game preview

The verdict

Bills by a touchdown in a game that lands around 51. The moneyline is the bet, the Allen under is the prop, the under 54.5 is the half-point lean, and LaPorta is the scorer. If you want the spread, take five and a half rather than six, and check the Detroit line on Thursday afternoon: two starters out on a short week is the kind of news that moves it past six before kick-off.

Put it to work

Game page: Lions at Bills Live lines across the books, the model's edge table and every projected prop.
Best Bets The star card, re-rated as the lines move, and the public ledger.
Injuries The Detroit offensive line as the week develops.