Published October 29, 2026 by Statz NFL.
The league's best rushing offence against its best defence by yards, Chicago on eleven days of rest and Seattle off a 20-3 win. The market has Seattle by three and the model by five, close enough that the game is about the props. The scorers and the lineups for Bears at Seahawks.
The best rushing offence against the best defence by yards
Monday night in Seattle kicks off at 1:15am UK time on Tuesday morning, 8:15pm Eastern, at Lumen Field, open air, on turf. Chicago are 5-2 and beat New England 30-24 on Thursday night, which gave them eleven days before this game; Seattle are 4-3 and beat Kansas City 20-3 on Sunday night, with eight. The market has Seattle by three at a total of 46.5. The full picture is on the game page.
The matchup is the cleanest on the board. Chicago run the ball for 154.3 yards a game, first in the league, and gain 409.1 yards, third; they allow 87.6 rushing yards, third. Seattle allow 247.4 yards a game, first, and 158 passing yards, also first, and 17.9 points, fourth. Seattle score 24.0 points a game, 13th, and Chicago 25.7, eighth. The series is Chicago 2-1 with an average total of 33, and Chicago have covered all three; the last meeting, in Week 17 of 2024, was a 6-3 Seattle win that finished more than 34 points under its total. Every number for the two sides is on the Bears stats and Seahawks stats pages.
Where the game is won
The matchup grid gives Seattle both passing units and Chicago the running game. Chicago passing against Seattle's pass defence is a 58% Seahawks edge and Seattle passing against Chicago's pass defence is a 59% Seahawks edge, Chicago allowing 241.3 passing yards a game, 20th. Chicago running against Seattle is a 54% Bears edge, and Seattle running against Chicago a 65% Bears edge. The Bears rushing and Seahawks receiving pages show who carries each side.
Chicago are without safety Anthony Johnson Jr. and cornerback Zah Frazier; Seattle are without cornerback Terrion Arnold and running back Jacardia Wright. The model has Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 23.1 fantasy points, the highest projection in the game, with Caleb Williams at 15.5, Sam Darnold at 14.3 and D'Andre Swift at 14.1. Both depth charts are live and the injury table updates until kick-off.
The model's number
The model has Seattle 26.0, Chicago 20.8, a 46.8 total, and the Seahawks winning 65 times in 100. The market has Seattle by three, so the model and the market are about two points apart on the side. Seattle minus three at 1.87 on BetRivers is a 55% model call against 51% implied, two stars; Seattle on the moneyline at 1.63 is a 63.3% call against 61.5%, two stars; the over at 46.5 is a 50.6% call, one star. No bet on a side or a total: the game is priced close to the model, and the edge is in the props. Both teams' records against the line are on the Bears ATS and Seahawks ATS pages.
Scorers, props and the lineups
The props board has Chicago's receivers over and its backs and quarterback under. Kalif Raymond over 20.5 receiving yards at 1.86 is projected at 35.5, a 59% model call, five stars. D'Andre Swift under 14.5 carries at 2.00 is projected at 13, 57%, five stars, and Caleb Williams under 216.5 passing yards at 1.86 is projected at 200, 59%, four stars.
The scorers are fades: Emanuel Wilson at 1.71 is a 35% call priced at 58%, D'Andre Swift at 1.83 a 45% call priced at 55%, Jaxon Smith-Njigba at 1.86 a 51% call against 54%, with a scoring streak in three of his last five. Colston Loveland at 3.10 is a 30% call against 32%, fair. The Single Game Parlays page has no slip on this game this week.
- Kalif Raymond over 20.5 receiving yards — WR, CHI — at 1.86 — Projected 35.5 yards against a line of 20.5. Game preview
- Caleb Williams under 216.5 passing yards — QB, CHI — at 1.86 — Projected 200 against the league's best pass defence. Game preview
The verdict
A priced game: Seattle by five in the model and three in the market is not an edge worth a stake, and the total is on the number. Raymond over and the Williams under are the bets. The news to watch is Chicago's injury report, where Frazier and Johnson are the two names, and Seattle's, where Arnold is the one. Last week's Monday night did not land: Dallas beat Philadelphia 38-21, and the model's Eagles side lost.
The FanTeam Monday-night contest is £95m for six players. The optimiser captains Jaxon Smith-Njigba at £21.4m for 23.1 projected points, with Caleb Williams as vice-captain at £15.1m, then Sam Darnold, D'Andre Swift, Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland for 105.6 projected points at £90.6m. The FanTeam optimiser has the week.
Our Best Bets: the Pro page
Our Best Bets are a Pro page: the week's star-rated singles and parlays, every pick graded in public once the game is final. The ledger stands at 72-53, 16.90 points up at an 11.7% return, and Week 7 went five from nine. Monday's card goes out on Saturday morning.
Put it to work
- Best Bets (Pro) Star-rated singles and parlays, every one graded in public: 72-53, +16.90 points, 11.7% ROI.
- Bears at Seahawks The game page: model, matchups, injuries and odds, then the live score.
- Props Tool Every priced prop the model rates for Monday night.
- Injuries Frazier, Johnson and Arnold are the names on the list.
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