When did the Broncos play the Chiefs in Week 1?

Monday 14 September 2026, 8:15 PM ET, at Arrowhead Stadium.

What was the spread for Broncos vs Chiefs?

The Chiefs were 2.5-point favourites at the close, with a total of 42.5 points.

Who covered the spread in Broncos vs Chiefs?

The Chiefs covered as 2.5-point favourites: Broncos 10, Chiefs 31.

Did Broncos vs Chiefs go over or under?

Under: 41 points against a total of 42.5.

Who had the most passing yards in Broncos vs Chiefs?

Patrick Mahomes (KC): 15/27, 184 yards, 2 TDs.

Who had the most rushing yards in Broncos vs Chiefs?

Kenneth Walker III (KC): 23 carries, 173 yards, 1 TD.

Who had the most receiving yards in Broncos vs Chiefs?

Travis Kelce (KC): 3 receptions, 71 yards.

Who leads the Broncos vs Chiefs series?

The Chiefs lead 13-4 over the 17 games since 2018.

What is the average score when the Broncos play the Chiefs?

41.2 points a game: the Broncos average 18.1 and the Chiefs 23.1 in their 17 meetings since 2018.

Broncos at Chiefs Preview: Monday Night Football Week 1 Picks, Odds and Projections

Published September 7, 2026 by Statz NFL.

Six straight unders in the series and two questionable quarterbacks. The model's number, the Broncos lean, the Kelce and Rice props and the scorer prices for Broncos at Chiefs on Monday night.

The division has turned over

Monday Night Football closes Week 1 at Arrowhead on 14 September, 8:15pm Eastern, which is 01:15 BST on Tuesday. Denver arrive as the AFC West champions and the Chiefs as the team that finished third and lost its last six games of 2025, including a 20-13 home defeat to these Broncos in Week 17. Denver have won four of the last six in the series, and the number that matters for this preview is the other one: all six have gone under the total, at an average of 33.7 points a game.

The 2025 tape explains the unders. Denver allowed 18.3 points a game (third in the league) with 68 sacks, the most in football by a mile, and scored a middling 23.6. The Chiefs allowed 19.3 (sixth) and scored 21.3, 21st in the league, with a run game that ranked 25th. Two top-six defences, two ordinary offences, and a series that has produced a 41-point game once in six tries. The forward power rankings have them seventh and eighth: the model still thinks these are two of the eight best teams in the league, and it thinks they are close.

Where the game is won

The matchup grid gives Denver the two biggest edges in the game and Kansas City the two smaller ones. The Chiefs running against Denver's second-ranked rush defence is a 79% Broncos edge, and the Chiefs passing game against the Broncos' 11th-ranked pass defence leans Denver at 58%. Going the other way, Bo Nix's passing game against a Chiefs pass defence that ranked eighth is a 60% Kansas City edge, and the Denver run game against the Chiefs front is 59% Kansas City. Net, a small Broncos edge on the tape and a small Chiefs edge for the venue, which is roughly where the model lands.

The projections put the Chiefs' offence through Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce and almost nobody else: Rice projects 11.6 targets, 8.2 catches and 82.6 yards, Kelce 9.3 targets, 6.6 catches and 69.6 yards, and Patrick Mahomes 232 passing yards and 1.7 touchdowns with 25 rushing yards. Kenneth Walker III, the lead back, projects 12.4 carries for 52.8 yards and half a touchdown. Denver spread it wider: Nix at 213 yards and 1.6 touchdowns, J.K. Dobbins at 14.2 carries and 61.5 yards, Jaylen Waddle at 57.9 receiving yards and Evan Engram at 33.

The injury report is the whole game. Both quarterbacks, Mahomes and Nix, are listed questionable at the time of writing, and both were listed as questionable for the last meeting too, so read that as a Monday-morning check rather than a Monday-night crisis. Denver are without pass rusher Jonathon Cooper and linebacker Jordan Turner, which takes something off the league's best pass rush; Kansas City are without tackle Ethan Driskell. If either quarterback is downgraded, everything below changes and the game page will re-rate.

The model's number

Chiefs 21.5, Broncos 19.7. Kansas City by 1.7, a 41.2 total, the Chiefs winning 55 times in 100. The market has the Chiefs by two and a half to three, a total of 42.5 to 43.5 depending on the book, and a home moneyline of 1.77, which implies 56.5%. The model and the market are close on the winner and a couple of points apart on everything else.

Denver plus two and a half at 2.02 on Kalshi is the bet: a 53.8% model call against 49.5% implied, three stars, and the half point on the right side of three is doing the work. The Broncos moneyline at 2.30 on Polymarket is 46.5% against 43.5%, two and three-quarter stars, and a half point if you want the outright. The under is the interesting one. At 43.5 on Polymarket it is a 61% model call at 1.96, which is a ten-point raw edge and zero stars, and it is also the side that has landed six times out of six in this series. The series is telling you the model might have a point. Half a point at most, and take the 43.5 rather than the 42.5.

Broncos +2.5 at the Chiefs — Spread, DEN @ KC, Mon 8:15pm ET / Tue 01:15 BST — at 2.02 — Model has it a 1.7-point game. The hook under three is the edge; shop for +3 if a book offers it. Game preview
Broncos to win — Moneyline, DEN @ KC — at 2.30 — The division champions at better than 2/1 in a game the model has inside two points. Game preview
Under 43.5 points — Total, DEN @ KC — at 1.96 — Model total 41.2 and six unders in six meetings. Zero stars; half a point because the series agrees. Game preview

Scorers and props

Rashee Rice anytime touchdown at 2.35 is the star-rated scorer: 0.6 projected touchdowns and a model probability of 45.1% against 42.6% implied, two and a half stars. On volume alone it is the best scorer case on the board, and the model has him as the target hog in an offence that projects only 21 points, which is why the price is not shorter. Kenneth Walker III at 1.76 is the model's 53% call, close to fair. For Denver, RJ Harvey at 2.70 and Courtland Sutton at 3.00 are both 30% calls, a touch under their prices.

The receiving lines are where the value sits, and they all point the same way. Kelce over 37.5 receiving yards at 1.90 is projected at 69.6, a 77% over. Kelce over 4.5 receptions is projected at 6.6 and clears 72 times in 100. Rice over 5.5 receptions is projected at 8.2, a 76% over, and Noah Gray over 7.5 receiving yards is projected at 24.5. The line-setters have priced the Chiefs' receivers as if the targets are spread across a full room; the model has them concentrated in two players. Mahomes under 237.5 passing yards at 1.90 is the one star-rated line (projected 232.2, 53%, just over two stars), and it is consistent with the rest: the yards go to Rice and Kelce, and there are not that many of them.

The Single Game Parlays engine has one slip here, Second Receiver Ceiling at 13.00: Xavier Worthy to score, Worthy over 34.5 receiving yards and Mahomes over 237.5 passing yards, which the model prices at 19.4% against 7.7% implied. It wants the Mahomes over that the single prop leans under. Same rule as always: the slip is a script, the single is a line, and if you play the slip you are backing the version of the night where the Chiefs have to throw. A quarter point.

Travis Kelce over 37.5 receiving yards — TE, KC — at 1.90 — Projected 69.6 yards on 9.3 targets. The widest gap between a projection and a line on the whole Monday board. Game preview
Rashee Rice over 5.5 receptions — WR, KC — at 1.83 — 11.6 projected targets and 8.2 catches. Volume is the safest thing to bet on in a low-scoring game. Game preview
Rashee Rice anytime TD — WR, KC — at 2.35 — The star-rated scorer. 0.6 projected touchdowns as the lead target in a 21-point offence. Game preview
Patrick Mahomes under 237.5 passing yards — QB, KC — at 1.90 — Projected 232.2. Thin, but it agrees with the under and with a defence that led the league in sacks. Game preview

The verdict

Chiefs by a field goal or less, in the low forties, with the Broncos covering. Denver plus the points is the bet, the Kelce and Rice volume overs are the props, and the under is a half-point nod to a series that refuses to score. Do nothing until Monday morning's quarterback news: two questionable passers is the kind of week where the best bet is the one you did not place on Sunday.

Put it to work

Game page: Broncos at Chiefs Live lines, the model's edge table and the full prop board.
Injuries Mahomes, Nix and the Denver pass rush, updated through Monday.
Player Props Every Chiefs and Broncos line with floor and ceiling.