Villarreal are eighth in La Liga with 15 points, 13 points behind Atlético Madrid in third. On the chances they create and allow, they have been the third-best team in the division, 3.0 expected points ahead of Atlético. That gap is the story of La Liga after 12 games.
FC Barcelona and Real Madrid are first and second in both, and have earned it. Below them the table and the football barely agree. Real Sociedad are fifth on points and 14th on chances, while Elche are 18th on points and 10th on chances. Villarreal visit Barcelona on Sunday 22 November, in the first round after the break.
Expected points are what a club would have if every chance it created and allowed had been finished at an average rate. We use them to say who has played well, and the gap to real points to say who has had the breaks. Every figure comes from our La Liga stats, xG table and player ratings, league games only (Athletic Club and Rayo Vallecano have played 11). The full lists are in The La Liga Season So Far.
After 12 games, league only, in order of expected points (Exp). Table is league position
| Club | Table | Pts | Exp | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 1st | 33 | 27.1 | +5.9 |
| Real Madrid | 2nd | 30 | 23.7 | +6.3 |
| Villarreal | 8th | 15 | 22.5 | -7.5 |
| Atlético Madrid | 3rd | 28 | 19.5 | +8.5 |
| Athletic Club | 7th | 16 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
| Real Betis | 4th | 26 | 17.9 | +8.1 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 9th | 15 | 17.0 | -2.0 |
| Sevilla | 6th | 18 | 16.8 | +1.2 |
Only FC Barcelona and Real Madrid have created better chances than Villarreal (2.0 expected goals a game), and only Barcelona allow fewer (1.0 against Villarreal's 1.1). Villarreal also have the second-most possession (61.8%), the most corners (7.4 a game) and the third-fewest shots against, though only two clean sheets. On those chances they would have 22.5 points, not 15.
The points went in one-goal games. All five of their defeats came by a single goal: 1-0 at Alavés, 3-2 at home to Deportivo La Coruña, 2-1 at home to Betis, 1-0 at Real Madrid and 1-0 at home to Espanyol. Only one of their six one-goal games went their way. They have also scored 17 from chances worth 23.6, the biggest shortfall in the league, and nobody at the club has more than three goals. Georges Mikautadze and Pape Gueye have three each.
It is not a one-week blip. Villarreal were already 5.1 points short after seven games (The La Liga Season So Far), and our August model had them fourth, on 59.0 points (the preview). Athletic Club are the other club the table undersells: seventh on 16 points from 11 games, fifth on the football.
After 12 games, league only. Shots are per game
| Stat | Barcelona | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 33 | 30 |
| Goals scored | 48 | 31 |
| Goals against | 13 | 10 |
| Shots a game | 20.1 | 17.4 |
| Shots against | 7.2 | 12.2 |
| Possession % | 69.4 | 53.2 |
| Expected points | 27.1 | 23.7 |
FC Barcelona have won 11 of 12. Their only defeat was the Clásico, 2-1 at home to Real Madrid on 25 October (our Clásico stats guide), and they won 2-1 at Atlético on Sunday. They score 4.0 goals a game and have 48 in total, from chances worth 35.6, converting 19.9% of their shots when nobody else is above 15%. Their chances alone would still put them top.
Real Madrid have won 10 of 12 and let in 10 goals, level with Atlético and Celta for the fewest. They give away the fewest big chances (1.2 a game) and have hit the woodwork 11 times, the most in La Liga. Arda Güler has created 42 chances in 744 minutes, level with Lamine Yamal for the most in the league.
Both are above their expected points as well (+5.9 and +6.3), but the football still has them first and second. Real Madrid are 1.2 expected points clear of Villarreal, less than the 3.4 between Madrid and Barcelona.
Gap is points minus expected points, and 1-goal is wins and defeats in games decided by a single goal
| Club | Pts | Gap | 1-goal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 28 | +8.5 | 4-1 |
| Real Betis | 26 | +8.1 | 6-0 |
| Real Sociedad | 22 | +7.7 | 6-2 |
| Espanyol | 12 | -4.6 | 1-5 |
| Elche | 10 | -5.5 | 0-4 |
| Villarreal | 15 | -7.5 | 1-5 |
Atlético Madrid have taken 8.5 points more than their chances deserve, the widest gap in La Liga. They have kept six clean sheets, the joint-most, and conceded 10 from chances worth 14.3. Real Betis (+8.1) have played six one-goal games and won all six.
Real Sociedad are the clearest case. They are fifth on 22 points with a goal difference of plus one. Six of their seven wins came by a single goal, and the chances they allow (20.9 expected goals against) are the fourth-most in the division. Their expected points, 14.3, would put them 14th.
The last three rows are the mirror image: 14 one-goal defeats and two wins between Espanyol, Elche and Villarreal.
None of this means the flattered sides will fall. We tested the idea over 1,245 fixtures: clubs whose results ran more than half a goal a game ahead of their chances went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than our model rated them. Clubs running behind by the same margin gained 0.8, which is noise. On goal difference only Atlético, Real Madrid and Barcelona are past that line. It is a small lean against the flattered, and the other half did not hold, so nothing here says Villarreal are due a rise.
After 12 games, league only. Exp is expected points
Málaga are bottom on five points with no wins in 12, and the football does not rescue them: their 11.4 expected points are the lowest in La Liga. Valencia are 19th on nine and have scored eight goals, level with Getafe for the fewest, from chances worth 11.6. They also take the fewest shots in the division (9.8 a game).
Elche are the exception. They are 18th on 10 points, yet their 15.5 expected points would be tenth, ahead of Celta de Vigo, Osasuna and Alavés, and they have lost four one-goal games without winning one. Racing Santander are the opposite: tenth on 14 points but 15th on the football, with 30 goals against, the most in La Liga, and the only side yet to keep a clean sheet.
Ten clubs, from Racing in tenth on 14 points to Valencia in 19th on nine, are separated by five points. Málaga are four further back.
League games only. Rayo Vallecano have played 11
| Player | Club | Goals | Of club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir | Osasuna | 8 | 8 of 12 |
| Yassir Zabiri | Racing Santander | 9 | 9 of 17 |
| Sergio Camello | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 7 of 15 |
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid | 13 | 13 of 31 |
| Raphinha | FC Barcelona | 15 | 15 of 48 |
Ante Budimir is 35 and has scored eight of Osasuna's 12 goals. Yassir Zabiri is 21 and has nine of Racing Santander's 17, from chances worth 5.3, and is the 18th-highest-rated player in La Liga (7.33).
At the top, the ratings belong to two clubs. The six highest-rated players in La Liga come from Barcelona (Lamine Yamal 8.49, Raphinha 8.24, FermÃn López 7.96) and Real Madrid (Güler, Mbappé and Jude Bellingham). The first from anywhere else is Marc Bartra of Real Betis in seventh (7.68 in six games). Raphinha leads the scoring with 15 goals in 11 games, from chances worth 9.7, and Yamal has 10 goals and a league-high eight assists.
Fouls are per game, cards are season totals. Real Madrid commit the fewest fouls
| Club | Fouls | Yellows | Reds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 16.1 | 39 | 1 |
| Sevilla | 14.6 | 31 | 4 |
| Getafe | 14.3 | 39 | 5 |
| Real Madrid | 8.5 | 25 | 2 |
Espanyol commit the most fouls (16.1 a game) and, with Getafe, have collected the most yellow cards (39 each). Getafe have five red cards, the most, and Sevilla have four. Isaac Romero of Sevilla has six yellows in 405 minutes, the most in La Liga, and Jon Aramburu of Real Sociedad has committed 31 fouls in 10 games, also the most.
Real Madrid are the opposite, with the fewest fouls committed and the most won. Jude Bellingham has been fouled 31 times, more than any other player.
For anyone building fouls and cards bets, that is the starting list. The team pages show the rest: Espanyol fouls, Getafe yellow cards and Getafe red cards. For the day's picks, see our bet builder tips.
La Liga returns on Friday 20 November. Three things to look for.
First, whether Villarreal's run of one-goal defeats ends at Barcelona on Sunday 22 November, against the club that creates more chances than any other (3.0 expected goals a game). Second, whether Racing Santander can stop conceding when they host Real Sociedad that afternoon. Third, whether Getafe, with eight goals in 12 games, can score against Atlético and their six clean sheets that evening.
Sevilla host Betis and Real Madrid host Celta de Vigo on Saturday. The fixtures, standings and power rankings update after every game.
Villarreal are eighth on 15 points because all five of their defeats came by a single goal and they have scored 17 from chances worth 23.6, the biggest shortfall in La Liga. On the chances they create and allow they would have 22.5 points, third in the division behind Barcelona and Real Madrid.
FC Barcelona lead La Liga on 33 points after 12 games, three clear of Real Madrid on 30 and five clear of Atlético Madrid on 28. Barcelona have won 11 games and scored 48 goals, 17 more than Real Madrid, and their only defeat was the Clásico on 25 October.
Raphinha of FC Barcelona is the La Liga top scorer with 15 goals in 11 games, two ahead of Kylian Mbappé of Real Madrid on 13. Lamine Yamal of Barcelona has 10 goals and leads La Liga for assists with eight, and Yassir Zabiri of Racing Santander is next on nine.
Atlético Madrid are the most flattered La Liga team, 8.5 points above expected, then Real Betis (+8.1) and Real Sociedad (+7.7). Our testing over 1,245 fixtures found flattered sides then won 3.2 percentage points less often than rated. Real Sociedad are fifth but 14th on the chances.