Nine Champions League ties tonight, two at 5:45pm and seven at 8pm. Five player bets stand out on our model, four on fouls and one on shots on target, and the strongest is a PSV defender who has committed a foul in five of his last six games. Prices were taken this morning and can move before kick-off.
Everything below comes from our Player Props board and the model's projections, and the rule holds: we only name a selection the model rates above its price. The hit rates quoted are match statistics for each player's last six games.
Armando Obispo 1+ fouls at 2/5 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 81 percent against an implied 71. He has done it in five of his last six games, with a high of five.
Pablo Rosario 1+ fouls at 4/9 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 75 percent against an implied 69, and he has done it in five of his last six, with a high of four.
Porto are 30th with no points from two games and PSV are 26th with one, and PSV have lost their last two. Porto v PSV is previewed here.
Andreas Helmersen 2+ fouls at 10/11 with bet365 is 67 percent against an implied 52. He has done it in four of his last six games, with a high of five.
Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target at 1/2 with Ladbrokes is 72 percent against an implied 67, and he has done it in four of his last six, with a high of three.
Napoli are 32nd without a point, while Bodø / Glimt are 24th on three after beating Dortmund 1-0. Napoli v Bodø / Glimt has its own preview.
Marc Pubill 1+ fouls at 2/5 with Ladbrokes and Coral is 78 percent against an implied 71. He has done it in four of his last six games, with a high of two.
Stuttgart are 4th after two wins from two, and Atlético have won their last six games. Stuttgart v Atlético is previewed here.
Today's Daily Acca has two Champions League slips: a four-fold of Liverpool, Napoli, Porto and Paris Saint-Germain at around 9/1, and a treble of the first three at around 3/1. Monday's treble landed, so the season stands at 21 winners from 93 and +11.09pts.
Every price on the card is rated against our projection model. A bet makes this page only when the model puts it clearly above the chance the price implies and the player's recent games back it up. Four Champions League ties tonight have no model projection, so they are left out of the picks. The hit rates quoted are match statistics, not settled bets. The full boards are on the Player Props page, and the Bet Builder Tips page builds the same reads into same-game slips.
Armando Obispo 1+ fouls at 2/5, Pablo Rosario 1+ fouls at 4/9, Andreas Helmersen 2+ fouls at 10/11, Scott McTominay 1+ shots on target at 1/2 and Marc Pubill 1+ fouls at 2/5. Our model rates each one above the chance its price implies, and each player has cleared the line in at least four of his last six games.
Sabah v Borussia Dortmund and Fenerbahçe v Slavia Praha kick off at 5:45pm UK, and the other seven games, including Liverpool v Villarreal and Paris Saint-Germain v Barcelona, kick off at 8pm.
Armando Obispo of PSV, who has committed a foul in five of his last six games, with a high of five.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change.