VfB Stuttgart host Atlético Madrid at the MHPArena on Tuesday 20 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. Two wins from two, six goals scored and one conceded put them 4th of 36. Atlético sit 15th on three points after a win and a defeat, so the home side arrive as the better-placed team on paper while the visitors arrive on a much stronger run of results.
Our model cannot separate them by much. It makes this a game of goals at both ends, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals each more likely than not.
Stuttgart have played two Champions League games and won both, most recently 3-0 away at Slovan on 14 October. They are scoring plenty and letting in very little: they average 3 goals a game, the 6th most in the competition, and concede 0.5, the 2nd fewest. Their goals record is the foundation of the 4th place they hold in the league phase table, and every game they have played in this competition has gone over 2.5 goals.
Domestically the picture is rougher. Stuttgart lost 1-0 at Hamburg on 17 October, which came after a 2-0 win at Paderborn, and before that a 1-0 home defeat to Dortmund. Their last five in all competitions read three defeats and two wins.
Atlético are in the opposite mood. They have won their last six in all competitions, including a 2-0 win over Man Utd in this competition on 13 October and a 1-0 win at Espanyol four days later. They also won 2-1 at Alavés, 2-1 against Real Madrid and 4-0 against Osasuna. They have three points from two in the league phase, and score 1.5 a game, but they concede only 1 a game, the 11th fewest, and have kept a clean sheet in half of their Champions League matches.
The stats favour Stuttgart in front of goal: they average 5.5 shots on target against Atlético's 4.5, and win more corners per game. Atlético are the cleaner side, committing 10.5 fouls a game to Stuttgart's 14.
VfB Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Seimen; Vagnoman, Chabot, Jeltsch, Hendriks; Stiller, Prömel; Führich, El Khannouss, Pejcinovic; Undav
Atlético Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Llorente, Hancko, Le Normand, Grimaldo; Simeone, Hjulmand, Barrios; Lee, Baena; Alvarez
Deniz Undav has put a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.36 at bet365 to do it again.
Bilal El Khannouss has had a shot in each of his last five games, averaging 1.8, and is 1.22 at bet365 for a shot.
Morten Hjulmand has had at least one shot in all five of his recent games for Atlético, averaging 1.6, and the 1.40 at bet365 is for another.
Robin Le Normand has committed a foul in each of his last five and is 1.40 at bet365 for at least one here, or 2.75 for two or more.
Finn Jeltsch is 1.53 to commit a foul and 3.50 for two or more, and our model ranks both among the likeliest in the match.
We make Atlético the slight favourites at 39% to win, and they are 2.10 at bet365. Stuttgart are 3.30 at bet365 and the draw is 3.90 at Midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart to win | 3.30 (bet365) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Midnite) | 24% |
| Atlético to win | 2.10 (bet365) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 63% |
Our prediction is Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético Madrid, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Atlético slightly more likely to win. A draw is in play, but either side can take it: 1-2 and 2-1 follow at 9% and 8%. We project 1.58 goals for Stuttgart and 1.65 for Atlético, and with both teams to score at 65% the goals market is where the match leans.