Sabah welcome Borussia Dortmund to the Azərsun Arena on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 17:45 UK, in the Champions League league stage. Both clubs have 3 points from two games, yet the bookmakers see a wide gap: Dortmund are 1.30 at Ladbrokes and Sabah are 9.50 at BoyleSports. The Azerbaijani side have won all three of their home games in this season's competition, while Dortmund arrive without a goal in their last two matches.
Sabah are 22nd of 36 after a 2-0 home win over Slavia Praha last Tuesday, which followed a 4-0 loss at Man Utd. That makes 2 goals scored and 4 conceded so far. Their wins have come at home, 4-0 against AGF and 5-2 against Be'er Sheva in qualifying, then the Slavia win, and both defeats were on the road, at Be'er Sheva and Old Trafford.
In their European games this season they average 2 goals a game and have kept a clean sheet in half of them.
Dortmund are 18th in the Champions League table with 3 points, a win and a defeat from two games. They lost 1-0 at Bodø / Glimt last Wednesday and followed it with a 0-0 draw at Union Berlin on Saturday. Before that came a 2-2 home draw with Bremen, a 1-0 win at Stuttgart and a 3-0 win over Paderborn. They had won seven in a row before drawing with Bremen, losing at Bodø / Glimt and drawing at Union Berlin.
They average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded in the competition, win 9 corners a game and have yet to keep a clean sheet.
Sabah possible starting lineup:
Pokatilov; Zedadka, Solvet, McCarthy, Puchacz; Lepinjica, Simic; Rakhmonaliev, Du Queiroz, Parris; Mickels
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson; Nmecha, Sabitzer; Svensson, Bellingham, Nwaneri; Guirassy
Umarali Rakhmonaliev has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, 11 in total, including six in one of them. He is 1.40 at bet365 to have a shot here.
Ivan Lepinjica has made three or more tackles in each of his last five games and averages 4.2 a match. Bet365 have him at 1.73 for 3+ tackles.
Waldemar Anton has had a shot in all five of his recent games and is 1.80 at bet365 to do it again. He is also 1.57 to commit a foul, and our model rates him the likeliest in the match to give away 2+ fouls, at 3.75.
Julian Ryerson has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, seven in all, and is 1.40 at bet365.
Tymoteusz Puchacz is 3.40 for 2+ fouls, which our model also rates among the likeliest in the match.
The bookmakers have Dortmund as clear favourites, and they are the side we expect to win, at 1.30 with Ladbrokes. The draw is 6.25 at bet365 and Sabah are 9.50 at BoyleSports.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Sabah to win | 9.50 (BoyleSports) | - |
| Draw | 6.25 (bet365) | - |
| Dortmund to win | 1.30 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | - |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 (bet365) | - |
Sabah have kept a clean sheet in half their games and see both teams score in 40% of them. Dortmund have conceded in every game in the sample. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sabah's games and 50% of Dortmund's.
We expect Dortmund to win, though Sabah have won all three of their home games this season.