Porto host PSV at the Estádio Do Dragão on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, and neither side has a League Stage win yet. Porto sit 30th of 36 with no points from two games, while PSV are 26th with a single point. One of them leaves with something to build on, and the home side are the favourites to be it.
Porto's two European games have both ended in defeat: 0-2 against Man City and a 3-2 loss at Betis last week. That leaves them with two goals scored and five conceded. PSV have scored one and conceded two, having drawn their opener before losing 1-0 at RB Leipzig.
Porto's European results have been painful, but their domestic form is strong. They have won their last three domestic games, 4-1 at Casa Pia, 3-1 against Benfica and 2-1 at Marítimo on 10 October, and eight of their last ten in all competitions.
In the Champions League Porto average 1 goal a game and concede 2.5, with 2.5 shots on target and 1.5 corners a game.
PSV arrive in poorer form. They have lost their last two, 2-1 at ADO Den Haag on Saturday and 1-0 at RB Leipzig on Tuesday, after a 2-0 home win over Heerenveen and a 3-2 defeat at FC Twente. In Europe they concede 1 goal a game and score 0.5, and they win 7.5 corners a game.
Porto possible starting lineup:
Diogo Costa; Martim Fernandes, Kiwior, Rosario, Moura; Varela, Froholdt, Gabri Veiga; Pepê, André Silva, Borja Sainz
PSV possible starting lineup:
Kovar; Dest, Geertruida, Obispo, Kostić; Sano, Til, Mauro Júnior; Mijnans, van Bommel, Perišić
Pablo Rosario has committed at least one foul in each of his last five games, with 10 fouls across that run and a 2.0 average, and he is 1.22 at bet365 to do it again. His team-mate Pepê has also fouled in all five, 7 in total, and is 1.53 at Midnite.
For PSV, Sven Mijnans has hit the target in four of his last five, with seven shots on target in total, and is 1.67 at bet365 (1.80 at Ladbrokes and Coral). Guus Til has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.20 at bet365.
Our model also rates Armando Obispo highly in the foul market, at 2.63 for two or more, and Victor Froholdt at 2.75 for two or more fouls on the Porto side.
We back Porto, who are 1.65 at Ladbrokes to win. The draw is 4.20 at bet365 and PSV are 5.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Porto win | 1.65 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 23% |
| PSV win | 5.00 (bet365) | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 63% |
Our model has Porto scoring 2 goals to PSV's 1.24, and gives Porto a 54% chance of winning, with both teams to score at 62%. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw as the likeliest score, though we make Porto the more probable winner, with 2-1 and 2-0 next on the list. Both teams to score is 1.57 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.53, and our model puts those at 62% and 63%, which fits two sides that have conceded in both of their Champions League games. The interest lies in the player markets above.