Fenerbahçe host Slavia Praha at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium on Tuesday 20 October, with kick-off at 17:45 UK. Both clubs are hunting their first league-stage win. Fenerbahçe are 28th of 36 on 1 point, Slavia Praha are 31st on none, and Fenerbahçe arrive off a 6-0 defeat at Villa.
That defeat came last Wednesday, and Fenerbahçe have since beaten Alanyaspor 3-0. Slavia, meanwhile, have lost seven of their last ten.
Fenerbahçe's season has run in two directions. At home in the Super Lig they have been ruthless, winning 8-0 against Eyüpspor and 3-0 against Alanyaspor, with a 3-0 win at Rizespor in between. In Europe they have taken a point from two games, drawing one and losing 6-0 at Villa, and they sit on 1 goal scored and 7 conceded in the competition.
In their European matches this season, qualifying included, Fenerbahçe average 1.13 goals scored and concede 1.25, with a clean sheet in 38% of them.
Slavia Praha's record is much bleaker. They have lost their last five Champions League games: 0-2 at Sabah, 2-3 against Lens, 1-4 at Pafos FC, 2-4 against Barcelona and 0-3 at Spurs. They have conceded 2.5 goals a game in the league stage and have not kept a clean sheet.
They do create chances, though. Slavia average 6.5 shots on target, but they have scored only twice in two league-stage games.
Fenerbahçe possible starting lineup:
Ederson; Semedo, Škriniar, Aké, Brown; Yüksek, Guendouzi; Kahveci, Aydın, Greenwood; Muriqi
Slavia Praha possible starting lineup:
Markovic; Holes, Zima, N'Guessan; Vlcek, Moses, Sadílek, Sturm; Provod, Ayaosi; Chory
Mason Greenwood is the one to start with. He has had at least three shots in each of his last five games, an average of 4 a game. Three or more shots is 1.14 at bet365.
Mattéo Guendouzi has had a shot in four of his last five, averaging 1.2, and one or more shots is 1.73 at bet365.
For Slavia, Tomas Chory has committed at least one foul in four of his last five, with five in one game, and one or more fouls is 1.25 at bet365.
Lukas Provod has done the same in four of five, and one or more fouls is 1.36 at bet365. David Moses is the other Slavia midfielder to note, at 1.44 for one or more fouls and 3.25 for two or more, with our model ranking him the likeliest in the match for fouls.
Fenerbahçe are the favourites at 1.70 with Ladbrokes, with the draw at 4.10 and Slavia Praha at 4.75, both at bet365. Over 2.5 goals is 1.62 at bet365 and both teams to score is also 1.62.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe to win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Draw | 4.10 (bet365) | - |
| Slavia Praha to win | 4.75 (bet365) | - |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | - |
The goals angle is interesting. Fenerbahçe's European games have gone over 2.5 goals in only 25% of their matches, but Slavia concede 2.5 a game.
We expect Fenerbahçe to win at home against a defence that has not kept a clean sheet, with Greenwood's shots and the Slavia foul markets the pick of the player bets.