Manchester City host AEK Athens at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 8pm UK, and the hosts have some work to do in the Champions League league stage. City sit 17th of 36 with 3 points from two games, a win and a loss, and last week's 2-4 home defeat to PSG is the result they will want to put right.
AEK Athens are 20th on the same 3 points, and they bring the tightest defence in this fixture. A side that has kept clean sheets in three of its last four games meets a side that has scored three or more in four of its last five.
Manchester City have won nine of their last ten in all competitions, and the one defeat was the PSG game. Before that they beat Liverpool 3-0 away and followed the PSG loss with a 3-2 win over Ipswich on Saturday. Before that came a 5-3 win over Sunderland and a 5-0 Carabao Cup win over Norwich. They have also conceded in most of those games.
City's numbers up front are strong. They are averaging 9.5 shots on target a game, the 5th most, and 8 corners, the 6th most. Their clean-sheet rate of 50% is the 4th highest.
AEK Athens arrive after a 3-1 defeat at Shakhtar Donetsk, their first loss in the league stage after a 1-0 home win over LASK Linz. Their qualifying run read 4-0 against Levski Sofia and a 0-0 draw in Sofia. Defence is their strength: they have conceded 0.75 goals a game over their four Champions League games including qualifying, with three clean sheets.
They are less threatening going forward, with 3.75 shots on target a game, and only one of their four Champions League games has seen both teams score.
Manchester City possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Khusanov, Dias, Guéhi, Gvardiol; Anderson, Fernández; Semenyo, Cherki, Doku; Haaland
AEK Athens possible starting lineup:
Brignoli; Rota, Moukoudi, Relvas, Pilios; Marin, Majer, Vitális; Koita, Jović, Zini
Aboubakary Koita has had at least one shot in each of his last five games and is 1.36 at bet365 to have one here.
Zini has had a shot in all of his last five and is 1.22 at bet365 to have one against City.
Enzo Fernández has put a shot on target in four of his last five games and is 1.36 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Elliot Anderson has committed a foul in each of his last five games, exactly one each time. He is 1.29 at bet365 to do it again.
Marc Guéhi is 5.5 for two or more fouls, which our model ranks 2nd likeliest in the match, and 1.83 for one or more. Rúben Dias is 3.75 for two or more.
The bookmakers have Manchester City as overwhelming favourites at 1.10 with Ladbrokes, with the draw at 12.00 and an AEK Athens win at 26.00.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 1.10 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Draw | 12.00 (bet365) | - |
| AEK Athens win | 26.00 (Coral) | - |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 (Ladbrokes) | - |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.08 (bet365) | - |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | - |
We expect Manchester City to win, and the interest is in the player markets. Koita and Zini have each had a shot in all of their last five and Fernández has had a shot on target in four of five. Put together, Koita to have a shot, Zini to have a shot, Anderson to commit a foul and Fernández to have a shot on target comes to 2.91 at bet365.
Our prediction is a Manchester City win. AEK Athens have kept three clean sheets in four Champions League games, so the visitors should make the hosts work for it, but City's attack should see them through.