Paris Saint Germain host FC Barcelona at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a meeting of the two best attacks in the Champions League. PSG lead the league stage in 1st on six points, with Barcelona 2nd on the same total, and between them they have scored 19 goals in four games.
PSG's two wins have brought 10 goals, the most of any side in the competition, and Barcelona's have brought nine, the 2nd most. Both teams have scored and conceded in each of their league-stage games. With this much firepower on show, a quiet night looks unlikely.
PSG have won their last six games. They won 4-2 away at Man City in the Champions League on Wednesday and three days later won 3-1 at Strasbourg in Ligue 1. Before that came a 3-1 home win over Le Mans and a 2-1 win at Marseille.
They have conceded in each of those last four wins, but they lead the field for shots on target with an average of 12 a game in the competition. They also commit few fouls: 9.5 a game is the 13th fewest, and their 0.5 cards a game is the 4th fewest.
Barcelona have won all of their last 10 games. They beat Galatasaray 4-1 in their last Champions League outing and then won 5-2 away at Betis in La Liga. Before that came a 3-0 win over Getafe, a 3-1 win at Sevilla and a 7-2 thrashing of Racing.
That is 22 goals in their last five games. Their shots on target average of 10 a game in this competition is the 2nd most, behind only PSG, and their defence is the 11th meanest at one goal conceded a game.
Paris Saint Germain possible starting lineup:
Safonov; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Hernández; Vitinha, Neves, Ruiz; Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia
FC Barcelona possible starting lineup:
GarcÃa; Cancelo, CubarsÃ, Espart, MartÃn; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, López, Raphinha; Gordon
Anthony Gordon has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, with 14 across that run, and he is 1.57 at bet365 to have one tonight.
Désiré Doué has also had at least one shot on target in each of his last five, and he is 1.40 at bet365 to do it again.
Vitinha has had a shot in four of his last five and three or more in three of them, which makes him 1.29 at bet365 for a shot in this one. Fabián Ruiz has done the same in four of five and sits at 1.25.
Pau Cubarsà is 1.36 for a foul, and our model ranks him second in the match for likelihood.
The bookmakers cannot split these two, with PSG and Barcelona both 2.45 at bet365 and the draw 4.5 at Ladbrokes. We make it almost as tight, with PSG and Barcelona both on 39%. Our model has both sides scoring close to two goals, so the interest is in goals and in the player shot markets above.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| PSG to win | 2.45 (bet365) | 39% |
| Draw | 4.5 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Barcelona to win | 2.45 (bet365) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.22 (bet365) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.20 (bet365) | 75% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, which is the likeliest single score, though we make PSG marginally more likely to win the game, and 2-1 either way is not far behind. Both teams to score is a 74% chance on our numbers, and four goals or more is a 55% chance.
PSG have won six in a row and Barcelona ten, so someone's run looks set to end.