Napoli host Bodø / Glimt at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 20:00 UK, in the Champions League league stage. Napoli are 32nd of 36 with no points from two games, while the Norwegian side sit 24th with three.
Napoli have scored one goal and conceded four in the league stage.
Napoli lost 3-1 at Villarreal last Tuesday and then went down 1-0 at Venezia in Serie A on Saturday. Before that came a 3-0 home win over Frosinone, a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina and a 1-0 home win over Bologna. They have lost their last two, and in the Champions League they average three shots on target a game.
Bodø / Glimt arrive on a high. They beat Dortmund 1-0 at home in midweek and followed it with a 2-0 win at HamKam in the league on Saturday. Before that they won 3-1 against Kristiansund, lost 2-1 at Brann and won 3-2 against Sandefjord. That is four wins from their last five and eight from their last ten.
Their record in Europe so far is a defeat and a win, with one goal scored and five conceded across the two games.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Milinković-Savić; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rafa Marín, Badiashile; Gilmour, McTominay, De Bruyne; Politano, Giovane, Højlund
Bodø / Glimt possible starting lineup:
Haikin; Sjøvold, Gundersen, Aleesami, Bjørkan; Berg, Auklend, Fet; Hauge, Helmersen, Brynhildsen
Rasmus Højlund has had a shot on target in four of his last five games, with three on target in one of them. He is 1.40 at bet365 to get one on target again.
Patrick Berg has had a shot in each of his last five games, with two in three of them, and is 1.20 at bet365 to have one. Sondre Fet has done the same in each of his last five, and is 1.29.
Sondre Auklend has made at least three tackles in each of his last five games, averaging 4.4, and is 1.62 at bet365 to make two or more.
Haitam Aleesami is 1.73 to commit a foul, and Amir Rrahmani is 4.00 to have two or more shots.
We back Napoli at 1.62 with bet365. Our model gives them a 55% chance of winning, with a draw at 23% and Bodø / Glimt at 22%. We project 1.94 goals for the home side against 1.17 for the visitors.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli to win | 1.62 (bet365) | 55% |
| Draw | 4.50 (midnite) | 23% |
| Bodø / Glimt to win | 5.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Both teams to score | 1.55 (ladbrokes) | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 (bet365) | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 60% |
Our prediction is Napoli 1-1 Bodø / Glimt as the likeliest single score, though we make Napoli more likely to win, and a draw is in play. A 2-1 home win is next on the list at just under 10%. Both teams scoring comes in at 60%, and the visitors score in most of the likely scorelines. Both teams to score is 1.55 at Ladbrokes and over 2.5 goals is 1.50 at bet365, which our model rates at 60% each, while over 1.5 goals is 1.14 at bet365 and comes in at 82%. Napoli have conceded in both of their league-stage games, and Bodø / Glimt have scored in each of their last five.