Liverpool welcome Villarreal to Anfield on Tuesday 20 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Champions League league stage. Both sides have played two games and both have scored freely, and the pair sit on the same record in one respect: neither has kept a clean sheet in the competition so far.
Liverpool are 5th in the 36-team table on 6 points from two wins, with 8 goals scored and 4 conceded. Villarreal are 14th on 3 points, with 5 scored and 4 against. We expect goals, and we expect the home side to win.
Liverpool beat LASK Linz 6-3 in their last European game on Wednesday, then won 2-1 at Brentford in the Premier League on Saturday. The blip came the weekend before, when they lost 3-0 at home to Man City. Before that they had won 1-0 at Bournemouth and beaten Spurs 3-1 in the Carabao Cup, so they have won four of their last five.
Both of Liverpool's Champions League games have seen both teams score and finished over 2.5 goals. They rank 4th for goals scored and 3rd for corners in the competition, but they have conceded four in two games, so the back line has been exposed.
Villarreal beat Napoli 3-1 at home on 13 October, drew 0-0 with Elche in La Liga on Saturday, and lost 1-0 at Real Madrid the week before. Before that came a 3-1 win over Levante and a 3-1 win at Málaga.
Both of Villarreal's Champions League games have also had goals at both ends and finished over 2.5.
In the league phase table the gap between 5th and 14th is three points, and a Liverpool win would open it to six.
Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Araujo, Van Dijk, Jacquet, Tsimikas; Gravenberch, Nyoni, Wirtz; Barcola, Koumas, Ngumoha
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Luiz Júnior; Mouriño, Navarro, Veiga, Romero; Comesaña, Gueye, Saliba; Moleiro, Moreno, Mikautadze
Alberto Moleiro has had at least one shot in each of his last five games, with 14 in total at an average of 2.8, and is 1.30 at bet365 for a shot in this one.
Carlos Romero has had a shot in each of his last five games, one each time, and is 1.67 at bet365 to have one at Anfield.
We back Liverpool to win, available at 1.50 with Ladbrokes. The draw is 4.60 and Villarreal 6.25 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 1.50 (Ladbrokes) | 59% |
| Draw | 4.60 (Ladbrokes) | 22% |
| Villarreal win | 6.25 (bet365) | 19% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 59% |
Our model has Liverpool scoring 2 and Villarreal 1.05. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 10%, with 2-1 level with it and 2-0 close behind, so a draw is in play, though we make Liverpool clear favourites. Our prediction is Liverpool 1-1 Villarreal.
With both sides having seen goals at both ends in each of their European games, both teams to score at 1.62 fits the shape of the fixture. Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is the other end of the same story. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in the competition and both have conceded four in two games, which is why we give both teams to score a 57% chance.
On the player markets, Moleiro and Romero both have a shot in every one of their last five.