Yes, Luton have taken 38 points over their last 20 League One games, 3.15 more than the 34.85 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Luton create 1.97 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League One games, 39.44 in all, and have scored 41 goals from those chances, 1.56 more than that xG would expect.
Luton allow 1.37 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League One games, 27.35 in all, and have conceded 30 goals from those chances, 2.65 more than that xGA would expect.
Nahki Wells has the most expected goals (xG) for Luton over their last 20 League One games, 7.66 xG in 18 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Kasey Palmer is next with 5.90 xG.
Luton have taken 3.2 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +1.6 goals against their xG, and -2.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 39.44 | 41 | +1.56 | 27.35 | 30 | -2.65 | 34.85 | 38 | +3.15 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 21.06 | 21 | -0.06 | 12.51 | 18 | -5.49 | 18.71 | 17 | -1.71 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.26 | 8 | -0.26 | 5.36 | 5 | +0.36 | 8.83 | 7 | -1.83 |
| Home | 10 | 19.78 | 17 | -2.78 | 10.27 | 13 | -2.73 | 19.74 | 18 | -1.74 |
| Away | 10 | 19.66 | 24 | +4.34 | 17.08 | 17 | +0.08 | 15.11 | 20 | +4.89 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Wycombe (A) | 1-4 | 2.69 | 2.17 | 1.68 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | League One | Bradford (H) | 0-1 | 1.16 | 0.30 | 2.07 | 0 | W |
| 10 Sep | League One | Stevenage (A) | 2-1 | 1.03 | 1.39 | 1.11 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League One | Orient (H) | 1-1 | 2.17 | 0.55 | 2.42 | 1 | W |
| 2 Sep | League One | Stockport (H) | 2-0 | 1.21 | 0.95 | 1.55 | 3 | W |
| 30 Aug | League One | Mansfield (A) | 5-2 | 1.83 | 1.96 | 1.32 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League One | Notts County (H) | 2-2 | 2.07 | 0.55 | 2.38 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | League One | Reading (A) | 3-4 | 1.74 | 1.71 | 1.41 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | League One | Bolton (A) | 2-3 | 4.02 | 1.91 | 2.29 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | League One | Barnsley (H) | 2-1 | 3.14 | 1.02 | 2.48 | 3 | W |
| 21 Apr | League One | Rotherham (A) | 0-2 | 1.43 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | League One | Mansfield (A) | 2-2 | 2.59 | 1.75 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 15 Apr | League One | Northampton (H) | 2-1 | 1.79 | 0.97 | 1.94 | 3 | W |
| 6 Apr | League One | Wimbledon (A) | 0-3 | 2.17 | 0.41 | 2.51 | 3 | W |
| 3 Apr | League One | Peterborough (H) | 2-1 | 2.45 | 1.43 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | League One | Stockport (H) | 1-1 | 1.20 | 0.74 | 1.71 | 1 | W |
| 17 Mar | League One | Exeter City (H) | 3-2 | 2.91 | 1.97 | 1.89 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | League One | Wycombe (A) | 1-2 | 1.17 | 1.92 | 0.91 | 3 | L |
| 10 Mar | League One | Doncaster (A) | 1-1 | 0.99 | 2.63 | 0.51 | 1 | L |
| 7 Mar | League One | Reading (H) | 2-3 | 1.68 | 1.79 | 1.32 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasey Palmer | midfielder | 20 | 1446 | 5.90 | 11 | +5.10 | 0.37 |
| J. Richards | midfielder | 19 | 1044 | 1.38 | 3 | +1.62 | 0.12 |
| Jamie Paul Donley | midfielder | 6 | 376 | 0.85 | 2 | +1.15 | 0.20 |
| George Alan Saville | midfielder | 10 | 412 | 0.14 | 1 | +0.86 | 0.03 |
| Callum Marshall | attacker | 7 | 320 | 1.15 | 2 | +0.85 | 0.32 |
| Liam Walsh | midfielder | 19 | 1599 | 0.43 | 1 | +0.57 | 0.02 |
| Nigel Cello Lonwijk | defender | 10 | 811 | 0.46 | 1 | +0.54 | 0.05 |
| Shayden Morris | attacker | 8 | 336 | 1.87 | 2 | +0.13 | 0.50 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | attacker | 6 | 210 | 1.05 | 1 | -0.05 | 0.45 |
| Kal Naismith | defender | 15 | 1262 | 2.11 | 2 | -0.11 | 0.15 |
| H. Odoffin | midfielder | 17 | 1518 | 2.17 | 2 | -0.17 | 0.13 |
| Mads Juel Andersen | defender | 12 | 948 | 1.20 | 1 | -0.20 | 0.11 |
| Devante Cole | attacker | 9 | 318 | 2.05 | 1 | -1.05 | 0.58 |
| Gideon Kodua | attacker | 17 | 585 | 2.19 | 1 | -1.19 | 0.34 |
| Emilio Lawrence | attacker | 17 | 1193 | 2.50 | 1 | -1.50 | 0.19 |
| Davy van den Berg | midfielder | 10 | 408 | 1.56 | 0 | -1.56 | 0.34 |
| Nahki Wells | attacker | 18 | 962 | 7.66 | 6 | -1.66 | 0.72 |
| Jordan Clark | midfielder | 13 | 1008 | 4.68 | 3 | -1.68 | 0.42 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |