No, Bologna have taken 31 points over their last 20 Serie A games, within 0.45 of the 31.45 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Bologna create 1.32 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 26.43 in all, and have scored 22 goals from those chances, 4.43 fewer than that xG would expect.
Bologna allow 0.98 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 19.62 in all, and have conceded 22 goals from those chances, 2.38 more than that xGA would expect.
Riccardo Orsolini has the most expected goals (xG) for Bologna over their last 20 Serie A games, 4.56 xG in 17 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Santiago Castro is next with 3.06 xG.
Bologna's results and their chances agree, within 0.5 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.43 | 22 | -4.43 | 19.62 | 22 | -2.38 | 31.45 | 31 | -0.45 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.98 | 12 | -0.98 | 9.96 | 12 | -2.04 | 15.42 | 13 | -2.42 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.17 | 5 | -1.17 | 5.11 | 6 | -0.89 | 7.40 | 5 | -2.40 |
| Home | 10 | 15.48 | 10 | -5.48 | 10.50 | 13 | -2.50 | 16.82 | 10 | -6.82 |
| Away | 10 | 10.95 | 12 | +1.05 | 9.12 | 9 | +0.12 | 14.63 | 21 | +6.37 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Serie A | Lecce (A) | 1-2 | 1.78 | 1.27 | 1.71 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | Serie A | Torino (H) | 1-1 | 0.99 | 0.85 | 1.45 | 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | Serie A | Napoli (A) | 1-0 | 0.27 | 1.24 | 0.54 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Serie A | Sassuolo (H) | 2-2 | 2.34 | 1.49 | 1.89 | 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | Serie A | Atalanta (A) | 1-0 | 0.79 | 0.26 | 1.81 | 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | Serie A | Lazio (H) | 0-1 | 2.31 | 0.64 | 2.41 | 0 | W |
| 23 May | Serie A | Inter (H) | 3-3 | 1.49 | 1.49 | 1.38 | 1 | W |
| 17 May | Serie A | Atalanta (A) | 0-1 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| 11 May | Serie A | Napoli (A) | 2-3 | 1.32 | 1.03 | 1.57 | 3 | W |
| 3 May | Serie A | Cagliari (H) | 0-0 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 1.37 | 1 | D |
| 25 Apr | Serie A | Roma (H) | 0-2 | 0.71 | 1.40 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 19 Apr | Serie A | Juventus (A) | 2-0 | 0.86 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Serie A | Lecce (H) | 2-0 | 2.27 | 0.30 | 2.61 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Serie A | Cremonese (A) | 1-2 | 1.24 | 1.47 | 1.22 | 3 | L |
| 22 Mar | Serie A | Lazio (H) | 0-2 | 1.74 | 0.98 | 1.89 | 0 | W |
| 15 Mar | Serie A | Sassuolo (A) | 0-1 | 1.23 | 0.64 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 8 Mar | Serie A | Hellas Verona (H) | 1-2 | 1.38 | 1.81 | 1.12 | 0 | L |
| 2 Mar | Serie A | Pisa (A) | 0-1 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 1.25 | 3 | D |
| 23 Feb | Serie A | Udinese (H) | 1-0 | 1.40 | 0.74 | 1.86 | 3 | W |
| 15 Feb | Serie A | Torino (A) | 1-2 | 2.18 | 0.63 | 2.37 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Bernardeschi | attacker | 19 | 1046 | 2.92 | 4 | +1.08 | 0.25 |
| João Mário | defender | 9 | 696 | 0.20 | 1 | +0.80 | 0.03 |
| Thijs Dallinga | attacker | 5 | 107 | 0.31 | 1 | +0.69 | 0.26 |
| Jonathan Rowe | attacker | 14 | 769 | 2.52 | 3 | +0.48 | 0.29 |
| Tommaso Pobega | midfielder | 14 | 682 | 1.06 | 1 | -0.06 | 0.14 |
| Nikola Moro | midfielder | 17 | 892 | 1.17 | 1 | -0.17 | 0.12 |
| Roberto Piccoli | attacker | 6 | 420 | 1.23 | 1 | -0.23 | 0.26 |
| Remo Freuler | midfielder | 12 | 992 | 1.24 | 1 | -0.24 | 0.11 |
| Riccardo Orsolini | attacker | 17 | 916 | 4.56 | 4 | -0.56 | 0.45 |
| Simon Sohm | midfielder | 11 | 703 | 0.61 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.08 |
| Jens Odgaard | midfielder | 13 | 602 | 1.64 | 1 | -0.64 | 0.25 |
| Lewis Ferguson | midfielder | 16 | 1017 | 0.68 | 0 | -0.68 | 0.06 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi | attacker | 14 | 821 | 0.90 | 0 | -0.90 | 0.10 |
| Santiago Castro | attacker | 14 | 1038 | 3.06 | 1 | -2.06 | 0.27 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cagliari | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 10.7 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | 4 | 8.9 | 16 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 6 | 9 | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 6 | 6.7 | 8 | 11.2 | 8 | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Inter | 6 | 16.8 | 18 | 6.7 | 8 | 13.4 | 16 | +2.6 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 9.1 | 11 | 6.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Roma | 6 | 13.5 | 14 | 6.7 | 3 | 11.8 | 14 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 9.2 | 6 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Lecce | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Torino | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6.1 | 7 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Napoli | 6 | 10.6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Parma | 6 | 4.6 | 4 | 10.2 | 10 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 6 | 10.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 10 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Juventus | 6 | 9.7 | 9 | 3.6 | 5 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 7.3 | 9 | 10.3 | 13 | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 |
| 16 | Genoa | 6 | 5.8 | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 |
| 17 | Bologna | 6 | 8.5 | 5 | 5.7 | 7 | 9.8 | 5 | -4.8 |
| 18 | Monza | 6 | 9.9 | 9 | 8.1 | 15 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 9.8 | 7 | 8.7 | 14 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 10.2 | 5 | 12.7 | 16 | 7.1 | 0 | -7.1 |