Yes, Roma have taken 41 points over their last 20 Serie A games, 4.00 more than the 37.00 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Roma create 1.81 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 36.24 in all, and have scored 44 goals from those chances, 7.76 more than that xG would expect.
Roma allow 1.01 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 20.23 in all, and have conceded 20 goals from those chances, 0.23 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Donyell Malen has the most expected goals (xG) for Roma over their last 20 Serie A games, 15.56 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 17 goals; Paulo Dybala is next with 2.51 xG.
Roma have taken 4.0 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +7.8 goals against their xG, and +0.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 36.24 | 44 | +7.76 | 20.23 | 20 | +0.23 | 37.00 | 41 | +4.00 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 22.61 | 25 | +2.39 | 8.98 | 5 | +3.98 | 21.52 | 26 | +4.48 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.39 | 10 | -0.39 | 6.37 | 3 | +3.37 | 9.08 | 11 | +1.92 |
| Home | 10 | 20.02 | 25 | +4.98 | 8.17 | 7 | +1.17 | 20.65 | 24 | +3.35 |
| Away | 10 | 16.22 | 19 | +2.78 | 12.06 | 13 | -0.94 | 16.35 | 17 | +0.65 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Serie A | Como (A) | 0-0 | 0.74 | 1.46 | 0.84 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | Serie A | Inter (H) | 2-2 | 1.83 | 2.42 | 1.07 | 1 | L |
| 14 Sep | Serie A | Torino (A) | 0-2 | 2.02 | 0.75 | 2.22 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Serie A | Atalanta (H) | 2-1 | 3.27 | 0.97 | 2.53 | 3 | W |
| 31 Aug | Serie A | Lecce (A) | 0-4 | 2.53 | 0.77 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 24 Aug | Serie A | Fiorentina (H) | 4-0 | 3.10 | 0.36 | 2.77 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Serie A | Hellas Verona (A) | 0-2 | 2.78 | 0.44 | 2.67 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Serie A | Lazio (H) | 2-0 | 1.57 | 0.60 | 2.08 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Serie A | Parma (A) | 2-3 | 2.42 | 1.07 | 2.19 | 3 | W |
| 4 May | Serie A | Fiorentina (H) | 4-0 | 2.35 | 0.14 | 2.73 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Serie A | Bologna (A) | 0-2 | 1.40 | 0.71 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | Serie A | Atalanta (H) | 1-1 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.72 | 1 | W |
| 10 Apr | Serie A | Pisa (H) | 3-0 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Serie A | Inter (A) | 5-2 | 0.87 | 1.45 | 0.94 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | Serie A | Lecce (H) | 1-0 | 1.08 | 0.86 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| 15 Mar | Serie A | Como (A) | 2-1 | 0.98 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 0 | L |
| 8 Mar | Serie A | Genoa (A) | 2-1 | 0.57 | 2.63 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| 1 Mar | Serie A | Juventus (H) | 3-3 | 1.76 | 1.05 | 1.85 | 1 | W |
| 22 Feb | Serie A | Cremonese (H) | 3-0 | 2.63 | 0.10 | 2.81 | 3 | W |
| 15 Feb | Serie A | Napoli (A) | 2-2 | 1.91 | 0.78 | 2.14 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Mancini | defender | 19 | 1503 | 1.67 | 4 | +2.33 | 0.10 |
| Niccolò Pisilli | midfielder | 19 | 1045 | 1.99 | 4 | +2.01 | 0.17 |
| Evan Ndicka | defender | 16 | 1304 | 1.27 | 3 | +1.73 | 0.09 |
| Wesley | defender | 13 | 1076 | 0.43 | 2 | +1.57 | 0.04 |
| Donyell Malen | attacker | 20 | 1557 | 15.56 | 17 | +1.44 | 0.90 |
| Mario Hermoso | defender | 16 | 1277 | 1.62 | 3 | +1.38 | 0.11 |
| Manu Koné | midfielder | 13 | 928 | 1.03 | 2 | +0.97 | 0.10 |
| Devyne Rensch | defender | 14 | 731 | 0.11 | 1 | +0.89 | 0.01 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy | attacker | 7 | 274 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.16 |
| Robinio Vaz | attacker | 9 | 159 | 0.48 | 1 | +0.52 | 0.27 |
| Neil El Aynaoui | midfielder | 12 | 521 | 0.93 | 1 | +0.07 | 0.16 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini | midfielder | 9 | 612 | 1.01 | 1 | -0.01 | 0.15 |
| MatÃas Soulé | attacker | 15 | 837 | 2.04 | 2 | -0.04 | 0.22 |
| Rodrigo Mora | midfielder | 4 | 171 | 1.07 | 1 | -0.07 | 0.56 |
| Bryan Cristante | midfielder | 19 | 1591 | 1.56 | 1 | -0.56 | 0.09 |
| Santiago Castro | attacker | 4 | 105 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.61 |
| Paulo Dybala | attacker | 11 | 795 | 2.51 | 0 | -2.51 | 0.28 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cagliari | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 10.7 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | 4 | 8.9 | 16 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 6 | 9 | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 6 | 6.7 | 8 | 11.2 | 8 | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Inter | 6 | 16.8 | 18 | 6.7 | 8 | 13.4 | 16 | +2.6 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 9.1 | 11 | 6.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Roma | 6 | 13.5 | 14 | 6.7 | 3 | 11.8 | 14 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 9.2 | 6 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Lecce | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Torino | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6.1 | 7 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Napoli | 6 | 10.6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Parma | 6 | 4.6 | 4 | 10.2 | 10 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 6 | 10.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 10 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Juventus | 6 | 9.7 | 9 | 3.6 | 5 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 7.3 | 9 | 10.3 | 13 | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 |
| 16 | Genoa | 6 | 5.8 | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 |
| 17 | Bologna | 6 | 8.5 | 5 | 5.7 | 7 | 9.8 | 5 | -4.8 |
| 18 | Monza | 6 | 9.9 | 9 | 8.1 | 15 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 9.8 | 7 | 8.7 | 14 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 10.2 | 5 | 12.7 | 16 | 7.1 | 0 | -7.1 |