Projected outright markets vs the bookies: win %, best odds and edge, plus group tables, the bracket and top scorers.
Updated 15 November 2026
Outrights turns the Statz model loose on the betting markets. Every projection, from the league title, top four and relegation to a World Cup group, knockout round or top scorer, is shown as a probability next to the best current bookmaker price, with edge indicators flagging where the market is behind the model. Switch between Teams and Players, compare odds across books, and bet straight from the page via integrated deeplinks. It's the cleanest view of where value sits across the season and the tournament.
| Projected finish | Club | Position now | Played | Points now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 1 | 12 | 33 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 2 | 12 | 30 |
| 3 | Atlético | 3 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | Betis | 4 | 12 | 26 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 8 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Sociedad | 5 | 12 | 22 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 7 | 11 | 16 |
| 8 | Sevilla | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 9 | Deportivo | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | Rayo | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 11 | Alaves | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | Levante | 17 | 12 | 11 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| 14 | Elche | 18 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Valencia | 19 | 12 | 9 |
| 16 | Celta | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 17 | Racing | 10 | 12 | 14 |
| 18 | Osasuna | 16 | 12 | 12 |
| 19 | Getafe | 15 | 12 | 12 |
| 20 | Málaga | 20 | 12 | 5 |
The 2026/27 La Liga projected table comes from simulating every remaining fixture thousands of times with the Statz match model, after 12 games played, and averaging where each of the 20 clubs finishes; the title, top 4 and relegation percentages are the share of simulations in which each finish happens.
The title race percentage is the share of simulated 2026/27 La Liga seasons in which a club finishes first: Barcelona win 84% of them on a projected 91.6 points, from 1st place on 33 points now, and the figure moves as results come in.
Osasuna, Getafe and Málaga are projected to finish in the bottom three of La Liga 2026/27, with the three lowest average finishing places across every simulated season after 12 games; each club's exact relegation percentage sits in the Relegation market on this page.
Two La Liga clubs level on points after 12 games can have different relegation chances because the model rates their underlying performance differently and their remaining fixtures differ in difficulty, so the simulated seasons drop the weaker or harder-scheduled side more often.
The 2026/27 La Liga simulation reruns daily, after every matchday completes and the team strength estimates update, so all 20 clubs' percentages move with each round; the figures on this page were last updated on 15 November 2026.