The Bundesliga Season So Far: Every Team Ranked on the Numbers

Four games is a small sample and this page will not pretend otherwise - at this stage of a Bundesliga season a single result still moves a per-game number noticeably, and the finishing rates below are the least stable figures on the page. Below is the division ranked on what teams are actually doing rather than what the table has given them for it, with every figure taken from our Bundesliga stats page, which covers league games only and updates as the season goes. The underlying expected-goals numbers behind much of it live on the Bundesliga xG table.

Two numbers frame the rest. Borussia Dortmund have taken 4.4 points more than their underlying numbers say they should have; Borussia Mönchengladbach have 3.4 fewer. That is the widest the table has been stretched in either direction.

The clearest single case is Bayer 04 Leverkusen. They lead the Bundesliga for shots at 22.5 a game and for shots inside the box at 16, and they are converting 11.1 per cent of them. They sit 5th.

Attacking threat

Ranked on the volume and the quality of what each side creates.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen lead the Bundesliga for shots at 22.5 a game, and take 16 of them inside the box. They are scoring 2.5 a game from that, a conversion rate of 11.1 per cent.

FC Bayern München carve out 5.5 big chances a game, the most in the Bundesliga, and convert 40.9 per cent of them. Miguel Gutiérrez of Bayer 04 Leverkusen leads the division's players with 5 big chances created.

FC Bayern München generate 2.5 expected goals a game and are scoring 3.5, which puts them 1 a game ahead of what their chances have been worth. Expected goals weight every shot by how often a chance of that type is scored, so it describes the quality of what a side is creating rather than how the finishing has gone.

FC Bayern München win 9.5 corners a game. They also hit 19 crosses a game, 8th of 18 in the division, which is usually the same story told twice: sides that attack down the flanks force more of both.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen take 16 shots inside the box a game, 71.1 per cent of their total. Shot location is the single biggest driver of chance quality, so this table tends to describe who is creating properly rather than shooting on sight.

Defending

Fewest is best in every table below.

FC Bayern München concede the fewest shots in the Bundesliga at 5.75 a game. Opponents are converting 8.7 per cent of them, which still leaves 0.5 goals against a game and a goals-conceded rank of 2nd of 18 - a reminder that a good defence and a good goals-against column are not the same thing.

FC Bayern München give up 0.7 expected goals a game, the best figure in the Bundesliga. They are conceding only 0.5, 0.2 a game fewer than the chances against them suggest, which is the kind of gap that usually does not last.

FC Bayern München concede 2 corners a game, fewest in the division and have kept 2 clean sheets in 4. Corners conceded is a decent proxy for how much sustained pressure a side absorbs.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede 1 big chances a game, and opponents are putting away 50 per cent of the ones they get. A big chance is one a striker is expected to score, so this is the table that matters most at the defensive end.

FC Bayern München allow 3.75 shots inside their own box a game, and 65.2 per cent of the shots they face come from there. Keeping opponents outside the area is most of defending.

Possession and play style

How each side plays, rather than how well.

FC Bayern München play 731 passes a game at 89.8 per cent completion, with 70.5 per cent of the ball. Volume and possession usually travel together; completion rate is what separates keeping the ball from moving it forward.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen hit 30.25 crosses a game, of which 7.75 find a teammate - an accuracy of 25.6 per cent. A high cross count with a low accuracy is often a side with no other way through.

Hamburger SV commit 14.25 fouls a game, the most in the Bundesliga, and pick up 1.25 yellow cards a game for it. A high foul count usually means a side that presses hard or breaks play up deliberately. Philipp Sander of Borussia Mönchengladbach leads the division's players at 3 fouls per 90 minutes.

Schalke 04 make 24 tackles a game, and 34.75 tackles and interceptions combined. Hasan Kuruçay of Schalke 04 makes the most of any player in the division at 4.84 per 90 minutes.

The players

Minimum 270 minutes for the shooting and creating tables, so a player needs roughly three full games to appear.

Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05 leads the Bundesliga with 4 goals from 16 shots, against an expected goals figure of 2.5 - 1.5 more than those chances were worth.

Marco Grüll of Werder Bremen leads for assists with 4, from 9 chances created and 2 of those big ones. Assists depend on someone else finishing, which is why chances created is the steadier measure of a creator.

Ibrahim Maza of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has taken 17 shots, more than anyone in the Bundesliga, hitting the target with 3 and scoring 1 - a conversion rate of 5.9 per cent.

Miguel Gutiérrez of Bayer 04 Leverkusen has created 5 big chances, the most in the Bundesliga, which have so far produced 3 assists. The gap between those two numbers is finishing, not creation.

What the table is hiding

Expected points take every chance a side has created and conceded and ask what a league table would look like if those chances had been taken at an average rate. The gap between that and the real table is the part of the season that has not been earned - in either direction.

None of this says the over-performers are about to collapse or that the under-performers are about to win six in a row. Finishing is a real skill and some sides out-run their numbers for a whole season.

What we can say is what we have measured. Across 1,245 fixtures we tested both halves of this idea. Sides whose results were running more than half a goal a game ahead of what their chances deserved went on to win 3.2 percentage points less often than the model rated them - a real, usable correction. Sides running the same distance behind beat their rating by only 0.8 points, which is close enough to nothing to ignore. So the tradeable half of this table is fading the teams it is flattering, not backing the ones it is punishing. That asymmetry is the single most useful thing on this page.

FAQs

Which Bundesliga team creates the most chances? Bayer 04 Leverkusen lead for shots at 22.5 a game and shots inside the box at 16. FC Bayern München lead for big chances created at 5.5 a game.

Which Bundesliga team has the best defence? FC Bayern München concede the fewest expected goals at 0.7 a game and the fewest shots at 5.75, after 4 games.

Who is the Bundesliga top scorer this season? Phillip Tietz of FSV Mainz 05 with 4 goals. Marco Grüll of Werder Bremen leads for assists with 4.

Which Bundesliga teams are over-performing? Borussia Dortmund have 4.4 points more than their chances deserve; Borussia Mönchengladbach have 3.4 fewer. Our own testing says the tradeable side of that gap is fading the over-performers rather than backing the under-performers.