Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 18 October 2026, after the last game
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the biggest shortfall in the Bundesliga: 0 points from chances worth 5.2 xPts, a gap of 5.2. At the other end, Hamburger SV have taken 9 points from an xPts figure of 4.6, 4.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 3 | 18 | 9.7 | +8.3 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | +16 | 7.5 | +8.5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 14 | 9.8 | +4.2 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | +14 | 6.5 | +7.5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 11 | 6.3 | +4.7 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | +9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 4 | FC Union Berlin | 4 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | -1 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | +5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | +3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -3 | 1.7 | -4.7 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 3 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 0.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | -3 | -0.6 | -2.4 | 0 | 3.7 | -3.7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 14 | Paderborn | 3 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 15 | Elversberg | 3 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -1.8 | +2.8 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 16 | FC Augsburg | 3 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | +3 | -3.4 | +6.4 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 |
| 17 | Schalke 04 | 3 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | -1 | -2.2 | +1.2 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -3 | -3.8 | +0.8 | 6 | 2.1 | +3.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 3 | 4 | 9.5 | -5.5 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 6.6 | -5.6 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 |
| 2 | FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +7 | 2.6 | +4.4 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | -4 | -0.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | +0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 5 | TSG Hoffenheim | 3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | -2 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 |
| 6 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 3 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 8 | Elversberg | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 3 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -2.3 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 10 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | -9 | -3.3 | -5.7 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 11 | FC Augsburg | 3 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | +1 | -2.5 | +3.5 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Schalke 04 | 3 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | -2 | -2.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 13 | Hamburger SV | 3 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 14 | Paderborn | 3 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -3.0 | +0.0 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -4 | -4.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 |
| 16 | Werder Bremen | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -3.2 | +0.2 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -9 | -5.9 | -3.1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 18 | FC Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 11 | 6.3 | +4.7 | -11 | -5.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | +8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 13 | 9.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | +6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 11 | 7.0 | +4.0 | -2 | 2.3 | -4.3 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 7 | 10.9 | -3.9 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | +2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | +3 | 0.1 | +2.9 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 10 | FC Köln | 5 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Elversberg | 5 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 13 | FC Union Berlin | 5 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | -12 | -4.6 | -7.4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 17 | 12.2 | +4.8 | -9 | -3.8 | -5.2 | 0 | 5.0 | -5.0 |
| 15 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | +0 | -2.8 | +2.8 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 |
| 16 | Paderborn | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | -7 | -5.4 | -1.6 | 9 | 3.8 | +5.2 |
| 18 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 | 12 | 17.3 | -5.3 | +1 | -8.1 | +9.1 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 |
SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen share the biggest gap between goals and xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, both on 3.5, SC Freiburg 15 goals from 11.5, Werder Bremen 12 goals from 8.5. FC Augsburg are next on 3.1.
VfB Stuttgart are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 8 goals from chances worth 12.0 xG, a shortfall of 4.0. Schalke 04 are next on 2.6.
Hamburger SV are the luckiest side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 9 points from performances worth 4.6 xPts, 4.4 more than their chances deserved. Elversberg are next on 3.9.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are the unluckiest side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with no points from performances worth 5.2 xPts, 5.2 short of what they deserved. TSG Hoffenheim are next on 3.7.
FC Bayern München would also be top of the Bundesliga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 15.0 xPts from 19.2 xG created and 5.1 conceded across six matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are next on 11.7.
FC Bayern München have created the most xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 19.2 from six matches, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are next on 13.5.
Hamburger SV have created the least xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 5.8 from six matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Paderborn are next on 6.3.
FC Augsburg have conceded the most xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 18.9 from six matches, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Borussia Mönchengladbach are next on 16.0.
FC Bayern München have conceded the least xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 5.1 from six matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Borussia Dortmund are next on 5.5.
Bundesliga teams have averaged 1.78 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 54 matches played, and have scored 1.84 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.57 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Bundesliga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.99 a game against 1.58 away, a home advantage of +0.41, against +0.41 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 6 | 22 | 19.2 | +2.8 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +17 | 14.2 | +2.8 | 14 | 15.0 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 16 | 13.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | +7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7 |
| 5 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 14 | 13.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | +4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 |
| 7 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 11 | 11.0 | +0.0 | 14 | 8.9 | +5.1 | -3 | 2.1 | -5.1 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 8 | 12.0 | -4.0 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 6 | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 11 | FC Union Berlin | 6 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 17 | 11.2 | +5.8 | -12 | -3.7 | -8.3 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | 16 | 13.9 | +2.1 | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 13 | Elversberg | 6 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 14.2 | -3.2 | +1 | -3.2 | +4.2 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 14 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 16 | 12.9 | +3.1 | 12 | 18.9 | -6.9 | +4 | -5.9 | +9.9 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 6 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | -4 | -4.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 6 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 11.5 | -4.5 | -3 | -4.9 | +1.9 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | 20 | 16.0 | +4.0 | -12 | -6.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 5.2 | -5.2 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | -9 | -6.2 | -2.8 | 9 | 4.6 | +4.4 |