No, Rotherham have taken 10 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 4.62 fewer than the 14.62 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Rotherham create 1.46 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 14.62 in all, and have scored 12 goals from those chances, 2.62 fewer than that xG would expect.
Rotherham allow 1.28 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 12.84 in all, and have conceded 16 goals from those chances, 3.16 more than that xGA would expect.
Paul Mullin has the most expected goals (xG) for Rotherham over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 3.31 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Tom Bradshaw is next with 2.09 xG.
Rotherham have taken 4.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -2.6 goals against their xG, and -3.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 14.62 | 12 | -2.62 | 12.84 | 16 | -3.16 | 14.62 | 10 | -4.62 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.96 | 6 | +0.04 | 6.97 | 9 | -2.03 | 6.03 | 5 | -1.03 |
| Home | 5 | 7.24 | 8 | +0.76 | 7.47 | 10 | -2.53 | 6.59 | 6 | -0.59 |
| Away | 5 | 7.38 | 4 | -3.38 | 5.37 | 6 | -0.63 | 8.03 | 4 | -4.03 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Gillingham (H) | 1-4 | 0.87 | 1.99 | 0.68 | 0 | L |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Exeter City (A) | 1-0 | 0.52 | 1.63 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Crewe (H) | 1-1 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 1.32 | 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Northampton (A) | 0-1 | 1.55 | 1.16 | 1.64 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Salford (H) | 3-3 | 2.58 | 1.83 | 1.81 | 1 | W |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Bristol Rovers (A) | 1-0 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 1.39 | 0 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Tranmere (A) | 2-2 | 1.75 | 1.08 | 1.83 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Chesterfield (H) | 2-1 | 2.52 | 1.10 | 2.21 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | York (H) | 1-1 | 0.83 | 2.19 | 0.57 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Cheltenham (A) | 2-1 | 2.43 | 0.42 | 2.59 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Mullin | attacker | 10 | 686 | 3.31 | 5 | +1.69 | 0.43 |
| Ossama Ashley | midfielder | 8 | 476 | 0.08 | 1 | +0.92 | 0.02 |
| Aaron Nemane | midfielder | 7 | 279 | 0.11 | 1 | +0.89 | 0.04 |
| Ewan Otoo | defender | 7 | 630 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.07 |
| Brandon Cover | midfielder | 8 | 673 | 0.52 | 1 | +0.48 | 0.07 |
| Jili Buyabu | defender | 10 | 726 | 0.96 | 1 | +0.04 | 0.12 |
| Josh Austerfield | midfielder | 8 | 627 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.08 |
| Denzel Hall | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.08 |
| Fábio André Tavares Desidério | attacker | 7 | 525 | 1.83 | 1 | -0.83 | 0.31 |
| Tom Bradshaw | attacker | 10 | 355 | 2.09 | 1 | -1.09 | 0.53 |
| Kian Spence | midfielder | 8 | 508 | 1.84 | 0 | -1.84 | 0.33 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |