Yes, Barnet have taken 44 points over their last 20 League Two games, 13.27 more than the 30.73 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Barnet create 1.76 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 35.16 in all, and have scored 47 goals from those chances, 11.84 more than that xG would expect.
Barnet allow 1.45 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 28.94 in all, and have conceded 27 goals from those chances, 1.94 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Kabongo Tshimanga has the most expected goals (xG) for Barnet over their last 20 League Two games, 8.32 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 12 goals; Callum Stead is next with 3.62 xG.
Barnet have taken 13.3 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +11.8 goals against their xG, and +1.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 35.16 | 47 | +11.84 | 28.94 | 27 | +1.94 | 30.73 | 44 | +13.27 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 19.68 | 28 | +8.32 | 14.91 | 14 | +0.91 | 16.21 | 24 | +7.79 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.04 | 12 | +1.96 | 8.10 | 7 | +1.10 | 7.98 | 11 | +3.02 |
| Home | 10 | 21.14 | 24 | +2.86 | 11.18 | 13 | -1.82 | 19.39 | 23 | +3.61 |
| Away | 10 | 14.02 | 23 | +8.98 | 17.76 | 14 | +3.76 | 11.34 | 21 | +9.66 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Bristol Rovers (A) | 1-3 | 2.05 | 2.59 | 1.12 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Fleetwood (H) | 3-1 | 2.79 | 1.55 | 2.07 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Accrington (H) | 2-1 | 2.27 | 0.72 | 2.35 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Chesterfield (A) | 3-3 | 2.31 | 2.03 | 1.56 | 1 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Exeter City (A) | 1-1 | 0.62 | 1.21 | 0.88 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Cheltenham (H) | 2-2 | 1.98 | 1.21 | 1.88 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Shrewsbury (A) | 1-3 | 1.38 | 1.23 | 1.47 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Salford (H) | 3-1 | 1.70 | 1.33 | 1.62 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | League Two | Harrogate Town (A) | 1-2 | 0.86 | 1.81 | 0.75 | 3 | L |
| 25 Apr | League Two | Gillingham (H) | 6-2 | 3.72 | 1.23 | 2.51 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | League Two | Notts County (A) | 1-2 | 1.70 | 1.42 | 1.57 | 3 | W |
| 11 Apr | League Two | Barrow (H) | 3-2 | 2.67 | 0.37 | 2.68 | 3 | W |
| 6 Apr | League Two | Fleetwood (A) | 2-5 | 2.23 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 3 | W |
| 3 Apr | League Two | Bromley (H) | 2-2 | 2.30 | 1.48 | 1.88 | 1 | W |
| 28 Mar | League Two | Cambridge (H) | 1-0 | 0.64 | 0.67 | 1.28 | 3 | D |
| 21 Mar | League Two | MK Dons (A) | 1-3 | 0.98 | 1.88 | 0.80 | 3 | L |
| 17 Mar | League Two | Crawley (A) | 1-1 | 1.16 | 1.90 | 0.92 | 1 | L |
| 14 Mar | League Two | Newport (H) | 1-2 | 1.61 | 1.88 | 1.22 | 0 | L |
| 7 Mar | League Two | Salford (A) | 2-0 | 0.73 | 1.94 | 0.60 | 0 | L |
| 28 Feb | League Two | Chesterfield (H) | 1-0 | 1.46 | 0.74 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Stead | attacker | 12 | 1054 | 3.62 | 9 | +5.38 | 0.31 |
| Kabongo Tshimanga | attacker | 20 | 1758 | 8.32 | 12 | +3.68 | 0.43 |
| Charlie Lakin | midfielder | 8 | 700 | 3.55 | 6 | +2.45 | 0.46 |
| Phillip Chinedu | defender | 10 | 358 | 0.50 | 2 | +1.50 | 0.13 |
| Idris Kanu | attacker | 19 | 1334 | 1.74 | 3 | +1.26 | 0.12 |
| Zac Williams | defender | 7 | 535 | 0.93 | 2 | +1.07 | 0.16 |
| Tom Knowles | attacker | 8 | 433 | 1.06 | 2 | +0.94 | 0.22 |
| Anthony Hartigan | midfielder | 9 | 391 | 0.11 | 1 | +0.89 | 0.02 |
| Diallang Jaiyesimi | attacker | 9 | 254 | 0.24 | 1 | +0.76 | 0.08 |
| Jake Reeves | midfielder | 5 | 284 | 0.26 | 1 | +0.74 | 0.08 |
| Danny Collinge | defender | 17 | 1459 | 1.61 | 2 | +0.39 | 0.10 |
| OisÃn Gallagher | midfielder | 8 | 669 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.09 |
| Nnamdi Ofoborh | midfielder | 18 | 1318 | 1.04 | 1 | -0.04 | 0.07 |
| Romoney Crichlow | defender | 15 | 1240 | 1.69 | 1 | -0.69 | 0.12 |
| Mark Shelton | midfielder | 11 | 795 | 2.76 | 2 | -0.76 | 0.31 |
| Ryan Glover | attacker | 12 | 1022 | 1.52 | 0 | -1.52 | 0.13 |
| Adam Senior | defender | 20 | 1800 | 3.27 | 1 | -2.27 | 0.16 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |