Yes, Oxford Utd have taken 14 points over their last 7 League One games, 5.17 more than the 8.83 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Oxford Utd create 1.24 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 7 League One games, 8.70 in all, and have scored 15 goals from those chances, 6.30 more than that xG would expect.
Oxford Utd allow 1.57 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 7 League One games, 11.02 in all, and have conceded 8 goals from those chances, 3.02 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Gatlin O'Donkor has the most expected goals (xG) for Oxford Utd over their last 7 League One games, 1.62 xG in 7 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Mark Harris is next with 1.38 xG.
Oxford Utd have taken 5.2 points more than their chances warranted over 7 games: +6.3 goals against their xG, and +3.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 7 | 7 | 8.70 | 15 | +6.30 | 11.02 | 8 | +3.02 | 8.83 | 14 | +5.17 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.12 | 11 | +4.88 | 7.65 | 5 | +2.65 | 6.49 | 10 | +3.51 |
| Home | 3 | 3.51 | 6 | +2.49 | 4.26 | 3 | +1.26 | 3.78 | 5 | +1.22 |
| Away | 4 | 5.19 | 9 | +3.81 | 6.76 | 5 | +1.76 | 5.05 | 9 | +3.95 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Notts County (A) | 1-2 | 1.08 | 0.81 | 1.55 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | League One | Cambridge (H) | 1-1 | 1.06 | 1.41 | 1.12 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | League One | Burton (H) | 3-0 | 1.23 | 0.54 | 1.90 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | League One | Leicester (A) | 0-4 | 1.69 | 1.36 | 1.60 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | League One | Huddersfield (A) | 3-1 | 1.06 | 3.53 | 0.32 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League One | Stevenage (A) | 1-2 | 1.36 | 1.06 | 1.58 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | League One | MK Dons (H) | 2-2 | 1.22 | 2.31 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Harris | attacker | 7 | 584 | 1.38 | 4 | +2.62 | 0.21 |
| Gatlin O'Donkor | attacker | 7 | 184 | 1.62 | 3 | +1.38 | 0.79 |
| Siriki Dembélé | attacker | 7 | 559 | 1.17 | 2 | +0.83 | 0.19 |
| Cameron Brannagan | midfielder | 7 | 621 | 1.27 | 2 | +0.73 | 0.18 |
| Jamie Carson McDonnell | midfielder | 6 | 376 | 0.33 | 1 | +0.67 | 0.08 |
| Ciaron Maurice Brown | defender | 7 | 630 | 0.41 | 1 | +0.59 | 0.06 |
| Mo Missanga | attacker | 6 | 347 | 0.49 | 1 | +0.51 | 0.13 |
| Louie Sibley | midfielder | 5 | 217 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.45 | 0.23 |
| Tyler Goodrham | attacker | 7 | 276 | 0.64 | 0 | -0.64 | 0.21 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |