No, Northampton have taken 7 points over their last 8 League Two games, 2.16 fewer than the 9.16 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Northampton create 0.77 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 8 League Two games, 6.13 in all, and have scored 4 goals from those chances, 2.13 fewer than that xG would expect.
Northampton allow 1.09 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 8 League Two games, 8.68 in all, and have conceded 7 goals from those chances, 1.68 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Harvey Saunders has the most expected goals (xG) for Northampton over their last 8 League Two games, 1.01 xG in 6 appearances, and has scored 0 goals; Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh is next with 0.64 xG.
Northampton have taken 2.2 points fewer than their chances warranted over 8 games: -2.1 goals against their xG, and +1.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 8 | 8 | 6.13 | 4 | -2.13 | 8.68 | 7 | +1.68 | 9.16 | 7 | -2.16 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.78 | 3 | -0.78 | 6.92 | 5 | +1.92 | 4.75 | 5 | +0.25 |
| Home | 4 | 3.49 | 2 | -1.49 | 4.46 | 2 | +2.46 | 5.08 | 5 | -0.08 |
| Away | 4 | 2.64 | 2 | -0.64 | 4.22 | 5 | -0.78 | 4.08 | 2 | -2.08 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | York (A) | 1-1 | 0.87 | 1.77 | 0.78 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Rotherham (H) | 0-1 | 1.16 | 1.55 | 1.11 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Shrewsbury (A) | 2-0 | 0.58 | 0.88 | 1.06 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Newport (H) | 1-0 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 1.36 | 3 | D |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Crawley (H) | 1-1 | 0.74 | 2.41 | 0.44 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Gillingham (A) | 1-1 | 0.27 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Crewe (A) | 1-0 | 0.92 | 0.75 | 1.48 | 0 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Swindon (H) | 0-0 | 1.16 | 0.19 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe O'Brien Whitmarsh | midfielder | 7 | 522 | 0.64 | 2 | +1.36 | 0.11 |
| Logan Briggs | midfielder | 7 | 426 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.06 |
| Nathaniel Opoku | attacker | 6 | 367 | 0.61 | 1 | +0.39 | 0.15 |
| Matty Warhurst | attacker | 7 | 341 | 0.59 | 0 | -0.59 | 0.16 |
| Sam Hoskins | attacker | 7 | 248 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.22 |
| Harvey Saunders | attacker | 6 | 266 | 1.01 | 0 | -1.01 | 0.34 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |