Yes, Mansfield have taken 32 points over their last 20 League One games, 5.82 more than the 26.18 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Mansfield create 1.33 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League One games, 26.60 in all, and have scored 34 goals from those chances, 7.40 more than that xG would expect.
Mansfield allow 1.39 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League One games, 27.86 in all, and have conceded 27 goals from those chances, 0.86 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Lucas Akins has the most expected goals (xG) for Mansfield over their last 20 League One games, 5.12 xG in 17 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; W. Evans is next with 3.76 xG.
Mansfield have taken 5.8 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +7.4 goals against their xG, and +0.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.60 | 34 | +7.40 | 27.86 | 27 | +0.86 | 26.18 | 32 | +5.82 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.52 | 17 | +4.48 | 15.53 | 18 | -2.47 | 12.02 | 15 | +2.98 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.42 | 4 | -2.42 | 8.13 | 9 | -0.87 | 6.06 | 5 | -1.06 |
| Home | 9 | 15.46 | 22 | +6.54 | 14.11 | 13 | +1.11 | 12.93 | 19 | +6.07 |
| Away | 11 | 11.14 | 12 | +0.86 | 13.75 | 14 | -0.25 | 13.25 | 13 | -0.25 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Bromley (H) | 2-1 | 2.22 | 1.29 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | League One | Burton (A) | 2-2 | 1.86 | 0.63 | 2.22 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | League One | Huddersfield (H) | 0-0 | 0.68 | 2.38 | 0.42 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | League One | Bradford (A) | 1-0 | 0.53 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| 2 Sep | League One | Reading (A) | 5-0 | 1.13 | 2.88 | 0.51 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | League One | Luton (H) | 5-2 | 1.96 | 1.83 | 1.47 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League One | Peterborough (A) | 2-1 | 0.92 | 1.71 | 0.85 | 0 | L |
| 15 Aug | League One | Doncaster (H) | 2-1 | 1.12 | 0.90 | 1.52 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | League One | Cardiff (H) | 5-4 | 1.27 | 1.61 | 1.15 | 3 | L |
| 28 Apr | League One | Peterborough (A) | 0-0 | 0.83 | 1.35 | 0.97 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | League One | Huddersfield (A) | 1-4 | 1.01 | 1.08 | 1.29 | 3 | L |
| 21 Apr | League One | Stockport (A) | 0-1 | 1.56 | 1.46 | 1.44 | 3 | W |
| 18 Apr | League One | Luton (H) | 2-2 | 1.75 | 2.59 | 0.95 | 1 | L |
| 14 Apr | League One | Orient (A) | 0-0 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 1.30 | 1 | D |
| 11 Apr | League One | Wigan (A) | 2-1 | 1.20 | 1.63 | 1.09 | 0 | L |
| 6 Apr | League One | Burton (H) | 0-0 | 0.57 | 1.31 | 0.78 | 1 | L |
| 3 Apr | League One | Doncaster (A) | 0-2 | 0.51 | 0.60 | 1.19 | 3 | D |
| 21 Mar | League One | Northampton (H) | 4-1 | 3.52 | 1.11 | 2.53 | 3 | W |
| 17 Mar | League One | Bradford (A) | 1-1 | 1.07 | 0.97 | 1.43 | 1 | W |
| 14 Mar | League One | Barnsley (H) | 2-2 | 2.37 | 1.09 | 2.16 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Akins | attacker | 17 | 1356 | 5.12 | 8 | +2.88 | 0.34 |
| Nathan Moriah-Welsh | midfielder | 20 | 809 | 0.62 | 3 | +2.38 | 0.07 |
| S. McLaughlin | defender | 17 | 995 | 0.50 | 2 | +1.50 | 0.05 |
| Oliver Irow | attacker | 8 | 144 | 0.50 | 2 | +1.50 | 0.31 |
| J. Russell | midfielder | 15 | 1134 | 3.51 | 5 | +1.49 | 0.28 |
| L. Reed | midfielder | 18 | 1435 | 0.92 | 2 | +1.08 | 0.06 |
| V. Adeboyejo | attacker | 4 | 225 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.14 |
| R. Oates | attacker | 20 | 1084 | 2.52 | 3 | +0.48 | 0.21 |
| Tyler Roberts | attacker | 10 | 350 | 0.79 | 1 | +0.21 | 0.20 |
| Regan Hendry | midfielder | 19 | 1146 | 1.12 | 1 | -0.12 | 0.09 |
| Michael Smith | attacker | 7 | 549 | 2.14 | 2 | -0.14 | 0.35 |
| Ryan Sweeney | defender | 18 | 1480 | 1.14 | 1 | -0.14 | 0.07 |
| F. Blake-Tracy | defender | 16 | 987 | 0.77 | 0 | -0.77 | 0.07 |
| Liam Thompson | midfielder | 8 | 602 | 0.98 | 0 | -0.98 | 0.15 |
| W. Evans | attacker | 12 | 798 | 3.76 | 2 | -1.76 | 0.42 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |