No, Exeter City have taken 12 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, within 1.43 of the 13.43 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Exeter City create 1.17 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 11.65 in all, and have scored 6 goals from those chances, 5.65 fewer than that xG would expect.
Exeter City allow 1.22 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 12.20 in all, and have conceded 6 goals from those chances, 6.20 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Josh Gordon has the most expected goals (xG) for Exeter City over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 2.73 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 0 goals; R. Cole is next with 1.19 xG.
Exeter City's results and their chances agree, within 1.4 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 11.65 | 6 | -5.65 | 12.20 | 6 | +6.20 | 13.43 | 12 | -1.43 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.27 | 2 | -2.27 | 6.71 | 2 | +4.71 | 5.35 | 7 | +1.65 |
| Home | 5 | 7.23 | 4 | -3.23 | 3.70 | 1 | +2.70 | 9.20 | 9 | -0.20 |
| Away | 5 | 4.42 | 2 | -2.42 | 8.50 | 5 | +3.50 | 4.23 | 3 | -1.23 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Shrewsbury (A) | 0-1 | 0.92 | 1.56 | 0.92 | 3 | L |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Rotherham (H) | 1-0 | 1.63 | 0.52 | 2.18 | 3 | W |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Bristol Rovers (A) | 1-0 | 0.42 | 1.91 | 0.41 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Tranmere (H) | 0-0 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 1.40 | 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Port Vale (A) | 1-0 | 0.55 | 2.07 | 0.44 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Walsall (H) | 0-0 | 1.25 | 1.18 | 1.41 | 1 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Barnet (H) | 1-1 | 1.21 | 0.62 | 1.82 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | York (A) | 2-1 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Accrington (H) | 2-0 | 2.39 | 0.73 | 2.39 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Grimsby (A) | 1-0 | 1.36 | 1.63 | 1.21 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fitzwater | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.64 | 2 | +1.36 | 0.06 |
| S. Cox | attacker | 6 | 171 | 0.40 | 1 | +0.60 | 0.21 |
| R. Cole | midfielder | 8 | 703 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.15 |
| Taylor Perry | midfielder | 9 | 395 | 0.56 | 0 | -0.56 | 0.13 |
| Ethan Sutherland | defender | 8 | 321 | 0.60 | 0 | -0.60 | 0.17 |
| Ed James | defender | 8 | 620 | 1.03 | 0 | -1.03 | 0.15 |
| Josh Gordon | attacker | 10 | 687 | 2.73 | 0 | -2.73 | 0.36 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |