Washington WizardsWizards
Wed, Oct 287:00 PMETCleveland
Cleveland CavaliersCavaliers
WAS4.44CLE1.29SpreadCLE -9.5Total238.5via Polymarket

Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

By · Published · Updated

CLE

Statz pick

Cleveland Cavaliers to win

We give the Cleveland Cavaliers a 77% chance, against 23% for the Washington Wizards. Our line is CLE -9.7. See the full projection →

77%
CLE to win
Polymarket1.29

The Statz model favours the Cleveland Cavaliers at 77% to beat the Washington Wizards, with a projected margin of 9.7 points against a market line of -9.5. The total sits at 239.6 against 239.5. The injury that matters most is Justin Champagnie, out for Washington with a right foot injury.

The Washington Wizards visit the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Cleveland the clear favourite at 77% to win. The market agrees on the side and has the Cavaliers at -9.5. The model line is -9.7, so there is little daylight between the two.

How the teams arrive

Cleveland are 2-1 this season, with a run of W W L. Both wins came at home and both were tight: 127-125 over Minnesota and 125-121 over Brooklyn. The loss came on the road at Philadelphia, 106-114. The Cavaliers average 119.3 points for and concede 120.0, so the early picture is of a team scoring freely and giving plenty back. That matters for a total of this size.

Washington are 2-2, with a run of L W L W. Their best result was a 128-116 home win over Milwaukee, and they followed a 102-112 home loss to Toronto with a 124-120 win at Chicago. They arrive off a 103-110 defeat at Charlotte on Monday. The Wizards average 114.3 points for and concede 114.5. That is a lower-scoring profile than Cleveland's, and they are on the road here.

Team news and lineups

Washington carry the longer list. Justin Champagnie is out with a right foot injury picked up in the loss at Charlotte, and his listed return is 30 October. That removes a rotation body on a night when the Wizards need depth against a deep opponent.

Tristan Vukcevic is out with a left hip impingement, with a return date of 2 November. Prior reporting said Deandre Ayton should have the backup centre role to himself while Vukcevic is sidelined, which concentrates big-man minutes in fewer hands. Jamir Watkins is out after left ACL surgery and is not a factor.

Cleveland are cleaner. Nae'Qwan Tomlin is out with a low back stress reaction. Khalifa Diop is out on a G League assignment and Ernest Udeh, Jr. is out on a two-way G League listing. None of the three changes the shape of the main rotation, so the Cavaliers should be at full strength where it counts.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is projected for 25.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.8 threes. He is the top scorer on the Cleveland side and the main reason the model expects the Cavaliers to score 124.6.

James Harden

James Harden is projected for 21.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.9 assists and 3.2 threes. His playmaking against a Washington defence that has conceded 114.5 per game is a key part of Cleveland's edge.

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley is projected for 19.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists. With Washington short of big-man depth, his work on the glass is the matchup to follow.

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is projected for 21.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists. He is Washington's best route to staying close, as a scorer and as the main rebounder on a thin front line.

Trae Young

Trae Young is projected for 20.5 points, 2.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 2.8 threes. The Wizards' offence runs through him, and his assist number is the clearest sign of how well they can generate shots.

KyShawn George

KyShawn George is projected for 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.4 threes. He offers floor spacing, and the model expects him to be Washington's third option.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    AJ Dybantsa
    Under 18.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 100%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Trae Young
    Under 9.5 Assists · 2/5 last 5 · 73.3%
    BetParx1.93
  • Player
    Evan Mobley
    Under 1.5 Threes · 3/5 last 5 · 76.5%
    BetRivers1.54
  • Player
    KyShawn George
    Over 1.5 Threes · 2/5 last 5 · 64.5%
    Bet3652.00
BetRivers10.27
Market 7.6%Statz 36.2%+28.6%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    KyShawn George
    Over 1.5 Threes · 2/5 last 5 · 64.5%
    Bet3652.00
  • Player
    Peyton Watson
    Over 15.5 Pts + Ast · 1/5 last 5 · 59.6%
    BetParx1.97
  • Player
    James Harden
    Over 22.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 59%
    BetMGM1.83
  • Player
    Alexandre Sarr
    Over 10.5 Points · 1/5 last 5 · 57.3%
    BetParx1.91
FanDuel10.78
Market 6.7%Statz 13%+6.3%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Cleveland Cavaliers. It gives them a 77% chance to win and projects a 9.7-point margin, which is a model line of -9.7. The market line is -9.5, a gap of 0.2 points, so the model does not lean either way on the spread. It sees the number as fair, and the case for Cleveland rests on the straight win probability rather than on a mispriced line.

The total tells the same story. The model total is 239.6 against a market total of 239.5, a gap of 0.1 points, with no lean to the over or the under. The projected scores are 124.6 for Cleveland and 115.0 for Washington. Both teams have been trading points in the early games, but the number already reflects that.

Statz pick: Cleveland Cavaliers to win, 77% model probability, model line -9.7 against the market -9.5.

For a same game parlay to look at, the Scoring slip combines KyShawn George Over 1.5 Threes, Peyton Watson Over 15.5 Pts + Ast, James Harden Over 22.5 Pts + Reb and Alexandre Sarr Over 10.5 Points. It is priced at 9.7 at Paddy Power. See the Same Game Parlays page for the full slips.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest numbers before you act.

WAS @ CLE questions

Who is favoured in Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers?
The Statz model favours the Cleveland Cavaliers, giving them a 77% chance to win. The market agrees on the side, with Cleveland at -9.5 on the spread. The model's own line is -9.7, so the two views are close.
What is the spread for Wizards vs Cavaliers on 28 October?
The market spread is Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5 and Washington Wizards +9.5. The Statz model line is -9.7 for Cleveland. That is a gap of 0.2 points, and the model does not lean either way on the spread.
What is the over/under for Wizards vs Cavaliers?
The market total is 239.5. The Statz model projects 239.6, a gap of 0.1 points, so it has no lean to the over or the under. It projects 124.6 points for Cleveland and 115.0 for Washington.
Who is injured for the Washington Wizards?
Justin Champagnie is out with a right foot injury. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a left hip impingement, with a return date of 2 November. Jamir Watkins is out after left ACL surgery.
How have the Cavaliers and Wizards started the season?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 2-1, with wins over Minnesota and Brooklyn and a loss at Philadelphia. The Washington Wizards are 2-2, having beaten Milwaukee and Chicago and lost to Toronto and at Charlotte.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Washington Wizards or Cleveland Cavaliers?

The Statz model favours the Cleveland Cavaliers with a 77% win probability, leaving the Washington Wizards at 23%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Cleveland Cavaliers as the favourite at -1.5 on the spread. The moneyline is -417 for the Cleveland Cavaliers and +325 for the Washington Wizards.

What is the spread and total for Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers?

Bet365 lists the Cleveland Cavaliers at -1.5 with the total at 239.5 for Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers. The Statz model makes the Cleveland Cavaliers 9.7-point favourites and projects a 239.6 total. That total is 0.1 points above the market number, so the model leans to the over.

Which player props stand out for Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers?

The board's headline lines are Anthony Davis 49.5+ points at 51.00, Trae Young 17.5+ assists at 27.00 and Anthony Davis 19.5+ rebounds at 18.00. For the Cleveland Cavaliers the model projects Donovan Mitchell for 25.9 points and James Harden for 21.2 points. For the Washington Wizards it projects Anthony Davis for 21.3 points and Trae Young for 20.5 points.