Hit Rates

L5 = last 5 games; L10 = last 10 games; Season = all games played in 2025-26. L5 captures immediate hot/cold streaks. L10 captures rolling form and is the window most professional prop bettors weight most heavily. Season hit rate reveals consistent performers vs streaky ones. Players with high hit rates across all three windows are the strongest prop candidates.

A hit rate of 60%+ over L10 is a solid signal. At 70%+ over L10, the player is consistently outperforming the offered line. At 80%+ season hit rate, the line may be significantly underpriced. High hit rates often trigger line adjustments from books — if a line has moved up but the hit rate remains high, that is the strongest signal.

Statz hit rates are updated after every NBA game, typically within a few hours of the final buzzer. The hit rate calculation uses official boxscore data and applies to the standard prop thresholds tracked on the platform. L5 and L10 windows roll automatically with each new game. Season totals accumulate from the start of the 2025-26 regular season in October 2025.

Use all three together. Season hit rate identifies structurally reliable performers — players whose role and opportunity consistently supports hitting a line. L10 identifies current form. L5 is the most sensitive to recent changes — injury return, role change, matchup run. The ideal prop candidate has: high season hit rate (65%+), high L10 (70%+) and the L5 matches or exceeds the L10 (no recent drop-off).