Under 1.5 Assists
3 of last 9 underProjected 1.4
Market
42.5%
Ours
48.5%
Value
+6.7%
2.20NBA Best Bets: Player Props With Value in the Price
The Statz model finds 7 best bets for November 7, 2026, prices where its projection beats the market by enough to matter. The average edge is 5.5% and the biggest is 6.7%. The record since the ledger began is 156-192 over 350 graded picks. Every pick is graded after the game.
Record
156-192-2
Units
+2.2u
ROI
+0.6%
Strike
44.8%
Best Bets only (5%+ value). Every priced pick: 1027-1070, +17.6u, +0.8% ROI. Best Bets kept to tip-off: 109-150, -18.0u; withdrawn before tip-off (until 26 Oct): 47-42, +20.2u.
Best bets7
2.20
Pro pick Threes
See the pick with Pro Best of 3
Pro pick Points
See the pick with Pro Best of 7
Pro pick Points
See the pick with Pro Best of 6
Pro pick Rebounds
See the pick with Pro Best of 6
Pro pick Assists
See the pick with Pro Best of 6
Pro pick Threes
See the pick with Pro Best of 2
A best bet is a price we think is too long. The projection is turned into a probability of clearing the line, the bookmaker's price is turned into a probability once its margin is stripped out, and the two are blended - weighted heavily towards the price, because last season's record showed the market was the better guide. A pick publishes only when that blended chance, multiplied by the price, still returns more than it costs. Every line and both sides are priced, not just the longest odds on offer. Players who have missed a recent game or carry an injury tag are left off, and so are picks where the model disagrees with the market by an implausible margin: last season, those were the heaviest losers.
Frequently asked
Our chance of the pick winning, multiplied by the decimal price, minus one. A 50% chance at 2.10 is worth +5%. Our chance is the market's probability, with the margin removed, moved part of the way towards the model's - so a pick needs both a genuine disagreement and a price long enough to pay for it.
Because that is what the record showed. On last season's playoff picks the bookmaker's price, margin removed, predicted results better than the projection did, and the picks where the two disagreed most lost the most. The model is given a small, deliberate say, and the results page tracks whether it earns more.
It needs posted prices, and it would rather publish nothing than a bet it expects to lose. Player markets go up about a day before tip-off, and on plenty of days no price is long enough to clear the bar.
Related projections
Quick answers3 questions
What is an NBA best bet on Statz?
A best bet is a price where the Statz projection gives an outcome a better chance than the sportsbook odds imply, after the bookmaker margin is removed. Only edges above a minimum threshold and with enough confidence in the projection make the board.
How are the Statz best bets graded?
Every published pick is settled against the final box score and logged with its price. The results page shows the running record and profit at level stakes, wins and losses alike, from the day the ledger began.
Why do the best bets change during the day?
Lines move as money comes in and injury news lands, and the model re-prices with them. A bet can leave the board when the edge closes, so the price shown next to each pick is the one it was found at.