Charlotte HornetsHornets
Wed, Oct 287:00 PMETDetroit
Detroit PistonsPistons
CHA3.51DET1.40SpreadDET -7.5Total213.5via Polymarket

Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

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DET

Statz pick

Detroit Pistons to win

We give the Detroit Pistons a 72% chance, against 28% for the Charlotte Hornets. Our line is DET -7.4. See the full projection →

72%
DET to win
Polymarket1.40

The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons at 72% to beat the Charlotte Hornets, with a model line of -7.5 that matches the market spread. The model total of 217.4 sits above the 215.5 market line, so it leans over. The key absence is Jalen Duren, out for Detroit with a hamstring strain, while Charlotte are missing three rotation players.

The Charlotte Hornets visit the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Detroit the favourite at 72%, and the market agrees on the side with the Pistons laid -7.5 at the consensus line. Our model line is also -7.5. The difference is in the total.

How the teams arrive

Detroit are 3-1 this season and average 113.0 points for and 107.0 against. They opened with a 121-113 home win over BOS, then won on the road at MIA (128-111) and PHI (106-93). The run ended last time out, a 97-111 loss at NYK. Detroit are back at home here.

Charlotte are also 3-1, but the numbers are less comfortable: 104.0 points for and 111.0 against. They beat BKN 110-103 on the road, then lost 81-128 at home to ATL. They recovered with a 115-110 win over MIA and a 110-103 win over WAS. That ATL result is the outlier in a small sample, and it drags the averages. This is Charlotte's second game of a two-game road trip.

Team news and lineups

Detroit are without Jalen Duren, who is out with a right hamstring strain. He is set to be re-evaluated in two weeks, and his listed return date is 9 November. That removes their main interior presence. John Collins and Tolu Smith are the names in line for extra minutes, so expect Detroit's rebounding and rim protection to rest on a thinner frontcourt.

Charlotte's list is longer. Coby White (left calf strain), Kon Knueppel (left hamstring strain) and Grant Williams (right hamstring strain) are all out. The team has said it will have a clearer picture after this road trip. Knueppel has yet to play this season. The two-way players Kylan Boswell and Michael Ajayi are also out.

With White out, Dennis Schroder and Christian Anderson take more guard minutes. Royce O'Neale should keep meaningful minutes off the bench in Williams' absence. Charlotte's depth is stretched, and that is a big reason the model sees a clear gap.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham is projected for 23.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists. Detroit's scoring and playmaking run through him, and with Duren out he carries even more of the load. His assist number is the one that sets the pace of the game.

John Collins

John Collins is projected for 14.7 points and 7.8 rebounds. He is the obvious beneficiary of Duren's absence. His rebound projection matters most against a Charlotte side that will want second-chance points.

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson is projected for 14.6 points and 2.8 threes. He is Detroit's main floor spacer, and his shooting keeps the lane open for Cunningham.

Brandon Miller

Brandon Miller is projected for 22.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.5 threes. He is Charlotte's top scorer with so many teammates out. If he is cold, the visitors have few other ways to generate offence.

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen is projected for 17.8 points, 3.8 assists and 3.3 threes. He is the second shooting option and the main source of spacing on the Hornets' side.

Naz Reid

Naz Reid is projected for 15.7 points and 6.7 rebounds. Charlotte need his interior scoring and rebounding to hold up against a Detroit frontcourt that is itself short-handed.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer4 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    Dennis Schroder
    Under 1.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 76.5%
    BetMGM1.61
  • DET
    Detroit Pistons
    Moneyline · 71.6%
    BoyleSports1.40
  • Player
    Naz Reid
    Under 2.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 70.3%
    BetMGM1.80
  • Player
    Sion James
    Under 5.5 Points · 4/5 last 5 · 69.4%
    DraftKings1.79
BetRivers5.80
Market 12.7%Statz 26.7%+14.0%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Naz Reid
    Under 8.5 Rebounds · 2/5 last 5 · 79%
    BetRivers1.70
  • Player
    Sion James
    Under 2.5 Assists · 2/5 last 5 · 68.2%
    BetRivers2.04
  • Player
    Brandon Miller
    Under 24.5 Points · 3/5 last 5 · 67.5%
    Caesars1.92
  • Player
    Dennis Schroder
    Under 1.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 76.5%
    BetMGM1.61
BetRivers9.69
Market 7.5%Statz 27.8%+20.3%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz Best Bets for this game

The props our model rates above their price, from the Best Bets board.

Every Best Bet →

Statz prediction

The model takes the Detroit Pistons. A 72% win probability and a projected home margin of 7.5 fit with a model line of -7.5. That matches the market spread of -7.5 exactly, so the gap is 0.0 points and the model sees no edge on the number itself. Detroit are the side, but the price already reflects it. The best home price at -7.5 is 2.06 at Ballybet.

The total is where the model parts from the market. It projects 217.4 points, with Detroit at 112.5 and Charlotte at 104.9, against a market total of 215.5. That 1.9-point gap leans over. Charlotte's depleted rotation should limit their defence and rebounding, and Detroit have scored 113.0 a game on average. The best over price is 1.95 at Caesars.

Statz pick: Over 215.5 at 1.95 (Caesars), with the Detroit Pistons -7.5 as the side the model favours.

For a same game parlay to look at, the Edge slip combines Naz Reid Under 8.5 Rebounds, Brandon Miller Under 25.5 Points, Dennis Schroder Under 1.5 Threes and Sion James Under 5.5 Points at 7.16 with Paddy Power. It is all individual unders, so it is a different angle from the game total lean. Lines move before tip, so check the price before you act.

CHA @ DET questions

Who is favoured in Hornets vs Pistons?
The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons at 72% to win. The market also has Detroit as the favourite, with a consensus spread of -7.5. The model line is also -7.5, so the two agree on both side and number.
What is the model total for Hornets at Pistons?
The model projects 217.4 total points, with Detroit at 112.5 and Charlotte at 104.9. The market total is 215.5, so the gap is 1.9 points and the model leans to the over.
Who is injured for the Detroit Pistons?
Jalen Duren is out with a right hamstring strain and is set to be re-evaluated in two weeks. His listed return date is 9 November. John Collins and Tolu Smith are candidates to take extra minutes in his absence.
Which Charlotte Hornets players are out?
Coby White, Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams are all out, and the two-way players Kylan Boswell and Michael Ajayi are also listed as out. Dennis Schroder and Christian Anderson should see more guard minutes without White.
What is the Statz pick for Hornets vs Pistons?
The Statz pick is Over 215.5 at 1.95 with Caesars. The model sees no edge on the spread, where its -7.5 line matches the market, but its 217.4 projected total is above the 215.5 line.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Charlotte Hornets or Detroit Pistons?

The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons with a 72% win probability, leaving the Charlotte Hornets at 28%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Detroit Pistons as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is -250 for the Detroit Pistons and +200 for the Charlotte Hornets.

What is the spread and total for Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons?

Bet365 lists the Detroit Pistons at -1.0 with the total at 215.5 for Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons. The Statz model makes the Detroit Pistons 7.4-point favourites and projects a 217.1 total. That total is 1.6 points above the market number, so the model leans to the over.

Which player props stand out for Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons?

The board's headline lines are Moussa Diabate 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00, Brandon Miller 49.5+ points at 51.00 and Brandon Miller 9.5+ threes at 36.00. For the Detroit Pistons the model projects Cade Cunningham for 23.5 points and John Collins for 14.6 points. For the Charlotte Hornets it projects Brandon Miller for 22.1 points and Grayson Allen for 17.8 points.