Orlando MagicMagic
Wed, Oct 287:30 PMETToronto
Toronto RaptorsRaptors
ORL2.67TOR1.60SpreadTOR -4.5Total221.5via Polymarket

Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

By · Published · Updated

TOR

Statz pick

Toronto Raptors to win

We give the Toronto Raptors a 64% chance, against 36% for the Orlando Magic. See the full projection →

64%
TOR to win
Polymarket1.60

The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors at 64% to beat the Orlando Magic, with a projected margin of 4.6 points against a market line of -4.5. The model total of 225.0 sits above the 223.5 market number. The injury that matters most is Paolo Banchero, who is out for the Magic.

The Orlando Magic visit the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Raptors the favourite at 64%, and the market agrees on the side with Toronto laid -4.5. Both teams are short-handed, and the total is where the model sees a small gap.

How the teams arrive

Toronto are 2-1 this season, with a run of L W W. They opened with a 135-92 home win over CHI, then won 112-102 at WAS. The most recent game was a 94-117 loss at MIN. Across three games they average 113.7 points for and 103.7 against, so the defence has been the stronger side of the ledger.

Orlando are 1-2, running W L L. They lost 125-132 at home to ATL, then 93-115 at home to MIN. The Magic bounced back with a 111-102 win at NYK. They average 109.7 points for and concede 116.3, and this is their first road trip of the week to Toronto after two home defeats.

Team news and lineups

Orlando carry the longer list. Paolo Banchero is out with a high ankle sprain and is not expected back until around 22 November. That removes a primary scorer and pushes more offensive load onto Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane. Jalen Suggs is also out with a knee bone bruise and is due to be re-evaluated around 10 November. Backcourt minutes open up, and Anthony Black is the obvious beneficiary.

The Magic are also without Jonathan Isaac, who is not ready for his season debut. His next chance comes on 30 October in Toronto. Noah Penda (hamstring) and Izaiyah Nelson (ankle) are out as well. Penda's absence could open a few minutes for Tristan Da Silva.

Toronto's big loss is Kawhi Leonard. Swelling in his left knee is expected to keep him out for multiple weeks, with a return date of 23 November. An MRI showed no structural damage, but the Raptors are being cautious. Nate Bittle is out with a foot avulsion fracture and is week-to-week. Malachi Smith is on a two-way deal and is out. The key effect is on shot volume: Leonard's touches get spread across the wings, which keeps Toronto's offence perimeter-heavy.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

RJ Barrett

RJ Barrett is projected for 22.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.8 threes. With Leonard out, he is the clearest candidate to lead Toronto in scoring and shot attempts.

Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes projects at 18.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists. The assist number is the one to note, as he is likely to run more of the offence in a thinner rotation.

Immanuel Quickley

Immanuel Quickley is projected for 17.5 points, 5.1 assists and 3.0 threes. His three-point volume is the highest on the Toronto side, and it matters for the total.

Franz Wagner

Franz Wagner leads Orlando at 22.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists. With Banchero out, Orlando's shot creation runs through him.

Desmond Bane

Desmond Bane is projected for 19.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.3 threes. He is the Magic's main perimeter shooter and the second option on the night.

Anthony Black

Anthony Black projects at 16.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists. That is a big role with Suggs out, and the model expects him to use it.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer4 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    Jamal Shead
    Under 2.5 Rebounds · 5/5 last 5 · 85.6%
    DraftKings1.53
  • Player
    Franz Wagner
    Under 6.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 81.6%
    BetMGM1.65
  • Player
    Scottie Barnes
    Under 1.5 Threes · 5/5 last 5 · 79.3%
    PP1.50
  • Player
    Wendell Carter Jr.
    Under 2.5 Assists · 5/5 last 5 · 74.3%
    BetRivers1.68

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 6.36.

Market 12.6%Statz 41.2%+28.6%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Jamal Shead
    Under 0.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 65.9%
    BetRivers2.55
  • Player
    Collin Murray-Boyles
    Under 1.5 Assists · 2/5 last 5 · 68.8%
    BetParx2.20
  • Player
    Franz Wagner
    Under 6.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 81.6%
    BetMGM1.65
  • Player
    Wendell Carter Jr.
    Under 2.5 Assists · 5/5 last 5 · 74.3%
    BetRivers1.68

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 15.55.

Market 4.6%Statz 27.5%+22.9%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    Jakob Poeltl
    Over 7.5 Points · 1/5 last 5 · 66.7%
    PP1.91
  • Player
    Anthony Black
    Over 17.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 60.2%
    BetMGM1.83
  • Player
    Wendell Carter Jr.
    Over 18.5 Pts + Reb · 4/5 last 5 · 55.9%
    FanDuel1.88
  • Player
    Immanuel Quickley
    Over 2.5 Threes · 3/5 last 5 · 53.9%
    PP2.10
FanDuel13.33
Market 6.1%Statz 12.1%+6.0%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz Best Bets for this game

The props our model rates above their price, from the Best Bets board.

Every Best Bet →

Statz prediction

The model takes the Toronto Raptors. It gives them a 64% win probability and a projected home margin of 4.6, which makes its line -4.6 against a market spread of -4.5. The gap is 0.1 points, so the model leans to neither side of the spread. The agreement on the favourite is the useful part: the market and the model see the same game, and there is no spread edge to chase.

The total is different. The model projects 225.0 points, with 114.8 for Toronto and 110.2 for Orlando. The market total is 223.5, a gap of 1.5 points, and the model leans to the over. Both teams are missing key creators, but the projection still points to a score slightly above the number. The best over price is 1.95 at FanDuel.

Statz pick: Over 223.5 at 1.95 (FanDuel). Toronto Raptors to win, model 64%.

If you want a same game parlay to look at, the Scoring slip combines Jakob Poeltl Over 7.5 Points, Anthony Black Over 17.5 Pts + Reb, Immanuel Quickley Over 2.5 Threes and Ja'Kobe Walter Over 2.5 Threes. It is priced at 18.35 at Paddy Power. Compare prices on the NBA odds page. Lines move before tip, so check the number before you act.

ORL @ TOR questions

Who is favoured in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors?
The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors at 64%, with the Orlando Magic at 36%. The market also makes Toronto the favourite, so the model and the books agree on the side for this game on Wednesday 28 October.
What is the spread for Magic vs Raptors?
The market spread is Raptors -4.5 and Magic +4.5. The model line is Raptors -4.6, a gap of 0.1 points, so the model leans to neither side of the spread. The best Raptors price is 1.91 at Caesars.
What is the total for Magic vs Raptors and which way does the model lean?
The market total is 223.5, and the model projects 225.0. That is a gap of 1.5 points, so the model leans to the over. The best over price is 1.95 at FanDuel.
Who is out for the Orlando Magic?
The Magic are without Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson. Banchero's high ankle sprain is the biggest loss, and it puts more scoring responsibility on Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane.
Is Kawhi Leonard playing for the Raptors?
No. Kawhi Leonard is out with left knee swelling and is expected to miss multiple weeks, with a return date of 23 November. Nate Bittle is also out with a foot fracture. Toronto also lists Malachi Smith as out.
What time is Magic vs Raptors?
Tip is at 7:30 PM ET on Wednesday 28 October in Toronto. The Raptors are the home side, and the Magic are visiting for the first of two meetings this week, with the second on 30 October.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Orlando Magic or Toronto Raptors?

The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors with a 64% win probability, leaving the Orlando Magic at 36%. Bet365 leans the other way, pricing the Orlando Magic as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is -192 for the Toronto Raptors and +160 for the Orlando Magic.

What is the spread and total for Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors?

Bet365 lists the Toronto Raptors at +1.0 with the total at 223.5 for Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors?

The board's headline lines are Scottie Barnes 49.5+ points at 51.00, Scottie Barnes 14.5+ assists at 36.00 and Wendell Carter Jr. 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00. For the Toronto Raptors the model projects RJ Barrett for 21.9 points and Scottie Barnes for 18.7 points. For the Orlando Magic it projects Franz Wagner for 22.2 points and Desmond Bane for 19.7 points.