NBA Game Projections
Projected score, win probability and our spread and total for every upcoming game.
Tuesday 20 October
Wednesday 21 October
Thursday 22 October
Friday 23 October
Saturday 24 October
Sunday 25 October
Monday 26 October
Tuesday 27 October
Every game on the schedule, priced by the model before tip-off. Each card carries a projected scoreline, a win probability for both sides, and the spread and total those imply — shown against the book's number wherever one has been posted, so the disagreement is visible rather than buried. Projections are forward-only: once a game is final it moves to Model Accuracy, because a graded result is a track record question, not a projection.
Frequently asked
The margin the model expects, expressed the way a book would quote it. A projected spread of -4.5 for the home team means the model has them winning by four and a half points on average across the outcomes it simulates.
Usually because they weight recent form, rest and injuries differently. A gap is not automatically an edge — books move on money as well as on merit — but a persistent gap in one direction is where the model thinks value sits.
As far as the schedule and the data allow. Games close to tip-off carry the most reliable numbers because injury and rest news is in; a projection a fortnight out is a starting point, not a finished price.