Houston RocketsRockets
Wed, Oct 288:00 PMETMilwaukee
Milwaukee BucksBucks
HOU1.34MIL3.92SpreadMIL +8.5Total224.5via Polymarket

Houston Rockets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

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HOU

Statz pick

Houston Rockets to win

We give the Houston Rockets a 74% chance, against 26% for the Milwaukee Bucks. See the full projection →

74%
HOU to win
Polymarket1.34

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 74% to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, with a projected margin of 8.3 points against a market line of -8.5. The total leans over, 228.2 against 227.5. The injury that matters is Alperen Sengun, who is out with low back soreness.

The Houston Rockets visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Houston the favourite at 74%. The market agrees on the side and has the Rockets at -8.5, with the Bucks at +8.5. Our line is close to that number, so the question is how much Houston's absences matter.

How the teams arrive

Houston are 4-0 and have won every game by double digits or close to it. They beat Dallas 128-110 at home, edged San Antonio 114-110 away, won 121-114 in Atlanta and then took the return game 120-110 at home. They average 120.8 points for and 111.0 against. The Rockets are on the road tonight.

Milwaukee are 1-3. They lost 116-128 at Washington, 125-132 to Chicago at home and 116-127 at Philadelphia before beating Indiana 110-102 at home on 26 October. The Bucks average 116.8 points for and 122.3 against. That defensive number is the problem, and it is why the market sees a wide gap.

Team news and lineups

Milwaukee Bucks have nobody on the injury report. That is a clear edge in continuity tonight.

Houston are thinner. Alperen Sengun is out with low back soreness and will miss his first game of the season. His next chance to play is Friday at Dallas. Tari Eason and Clint Capela are both candidates to take on more minutes in his absence.

Steven Adams is also out with a right soleus strain. His return date is listed as 2 November, and he is considered week-to-week. With both bigs missing, Capela's role grows. Two-way players Quadir Copeland and Julian Phillips are also listed out. Even so, the model still has Houston clear, which says the gap in form and scoring is large.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is projected for 27.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists, with 2.4 threes. With Sengun out, he is the clearest source of Houston's scoring.

Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson projects at 19.7 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists. His rebounding matters most with the bigs missing.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. is projected for 17.9 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.4 threes. He gives Houston spacing and size on the glass.

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro leads Milwaukee at a projected 18.4 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists, with 2.3 threes. He is the Bucks' main scoring threat.

Kevin Porter Jr. projects at 17.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 6.4 assists. He is the main creator on a team that has leaked points.

Cormac Ryan is projected for 16.7 points and 2.8 threes. He is the top three-point threat in the Bucks' projection.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer4 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    Tari Eason
    Under 1.5 Threes · 5/5 last 5 · 81.9%
    BetMGM1.45
  • Player
    Myles Turner
    Under 16.5 Pts + Reb · 4/5 last 5 · 74.1%
    BetMGM1.80
  • HOU
    Houston Rockets
    Moneyline · 73.8%
    BetParx1.33
  • Player
    Fred VanVleet
    Under 6.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 69.2%
    BetMGM1.83
BetMGM6.16
Market 14.1%Statz 31%+16.9%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Kyle Kuzma
    Under 21.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 2/5 last 5 · 79.6%
    BetMGM1.95
  • Player
    Myles Turner
    Under 17.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 2/5 last 5 · 74.1%
    BetMGM1.91
  • Player
    Tari Eason
    Under 18.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 76.4%
    FanDuel1.85
  • Player
    Tyler Herro
    Under 26.5 Pts + Ast · 1/5 last 5 · 71.3%
    FanDuel1.85

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 12.75.

Market 6.4%Statz 32.1%+25.7%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    Jabari Smith Jr.
    Over 1.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 64.5%
    BetMGM1.57
  • Player
    Ryan Rollins
    Over 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 4/5 last 5 · 54.7%
    DraftKings1.90
  • Player
    Amen Thompson
    Over 26.5 Pts + Reb · 3/5 last 5 · 53.9%
    DraftKings1.95
  • Player
    Kevin Durant
    Over 36.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 2/5 last 5 · 52.8%
    DraftKings1.88
DraftKings10.45
Market 7.9%Statz 10%+2.1%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz Best Bets for this game

The props our model rates above their price, from the Best Bets board.

Every Best Bet →

Statz prediction

The model takes the Houston Rockets, with a 74% win probability and a projected margin of 8.3 points. Our line is Rockets -8.3 against the market at -8.5. The gap is 0.2 points, so the model leans to neither side of the spread. It supports the favourite winning, not a bet on the number.

The model total is 228.2 against a market total of 227.5. That is a 0.7 point gap and a lean to the over. The projected score is Houston 118.3 and Milwaukee 110.0. Sengun's absence is the risk to that scoring, but the Bucks' defence has allowed 122.3 a game.

Statz pick: Houston Rockets to win, with the over 227.5 as the total lean.

One same game parlay to look at is the Scoring slip: Jabari Smith Jr. Over 22.5 Pts + Reb, Ryan Rollins Over 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast, Amen Thompson Over 26.5 Pts + Reb and Kevin Durant Over 36.5 Pts + Reb + Ast, priced at 12.76 at DraftKings. See all Same Game Parlays for this game. Four legs at that price carry real risk.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds before you act.

HOU @ MIL questions

Who does the Statz model favour, Rockets or Bucks?
The model favours the Houston Rockets at 74% to win, with the Milwaukee Bucks at 26%. It projects Houston to win by 8.3 points. The market also has the Rockets as favourites, so the model and the books agree on the side.
What is the spread for Rockets at Bucks?
The market has the Houston Rockets at -8.5 and the Milwaukee Bucks at +8.5. The model line is Rockets -8.3, a gap of 0.2 points. That means the model leans to neither side of the spread.
What is the over/under for Rockets vs Bucks?
The market total is 227.5, and the model total is 228.2. That is a gap of 0.7 points and a lean to the over. The model projects Houston at 118.3 points and Milwaukee at 110.0.
Who is injured for the Houston Rockets?
Alperen Sengun is out with low back soreness and will miss his first game of the season. Steven Adams is also out with a right soleus strain. The Milwaukee Bucks have nobody on their injury report.
What time is Rockets vs Bucks on 28 October?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday 28 October in Milwaukee. The Houston Rockets are the visitors. Lines can move before tip, so check the latest odds close to the game.
How have the Rockets and Bucks started this season?
Houston are 4-0, averaging 120.8 points for and 111.0 against. Milwaukee are 1-3, averaging 116.8 points for and 122.3 against. The Bucks' latest result was a 110-102 home win over Indiana.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Houston Rockets or Milwaukee Bucks?

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets with a 74% win probability, leaving the Milwaukee Bucks at 26%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Houston Rockets as the favourite at -8.5 on the spread. The moneyline is +260 for the Milwaukee Bucks and -323 for the Houston Rockets.

What is the spread and total for Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks?

Bet365 lists the Milwaukee Bucks at +8.5 with the total at 228.5 for Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks?

The board's headline lines are Kevin Durant 49.5+ points at 51.00, Amen Thompson 14.5+ assists at 36.00 and Clint Capela 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00. For the Milwaukee Bucks the model projects Tyler Herro for 18.3 points and Kevin Porter Jr. for 17.0 points. For the Houston Rockets it projects Kevin Durant for 27.4 points and Amen Thompson for 19.7 points.