Miami HeatHeat
Wed, Oct 287:00 PMETAtlanta
Atlanta HawksHawks
MIA2.25ATL1.80SpreadATL -2.5Total240.5via Polymarket

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

By · Published · Updated

ATL

Statz pick

Atlanta Hawks to win

We give the Atlanta Hawks a 62% chance, against 38% for the Miami Heat. Our line is ATL -4.0. See the full projection →

62%
ATL to win
Polymarket1.80

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 62% to beat the Miami Heat, with a model line of -4.0 against a market spread of -3.5. The total is 240.5 and the model sits almost exactly on it. The injury that matters is Mouhamed Gueye, out for Atlanta with a foot fracture. Miami are fully healthy.

The Miami Heat visit the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Atlanta the favourite at 62%, and the market agrees on the side, with the Hawks at -3.5. The model line is -4.0, so the gap is small but it points the same way.

How the teams arrive

Atlanta are 2-2 and arrive on a two-game losing run. They lost 120-110 at Houston and 121-114 at home to the same team. Before that came a 128-81 win at Charlotte, the score that stands out, and a 132-125 win at Orlando. They average 121.0 points for and 111.8 against. The offence is working. Defence has been uneven against better opposition.

Miami are 0-4 and travel in poor form. They lost 113-109 to Dallas at home and 115-110 at Charlotte, so two of the losses were close. The other two were not: 128-111 against Detroit and 131-106 against Minnesota. They average 109.0 points for and 121.8 against. That is a scoring gap of nearly 13 points a game, and the defence is the problem.

Team news and lineups

Atlanta are without two big men. Henri Veesaar is out with a torn right ACL and is expected to miss the whole season. He was a late draft pick expected to spend much of his time in the G League, so the effect on tonight's rotation is minimal.

Mouhamed Gueye matters more. He is out after surgery on a fractured left foot, with a listed return date of 20 November. His absence thins the frontcourt depth behind Onyeka Okongwu. Rookie Zuby Ejiofor is in line for a bigger bench role, and Jock Landale is the projected backup centre but is dealing with an ankle issue. Expect Okongwu to carry heavy minutes and the reserve bigs to be a weak spot if the game gets physical.

Miami have nobody on the injury report. That is a clean bill of health for a team that has still lost every game so far, which says the issue is performance, not availability.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson is projected for 22.7 points, 11.0 rebounds and 7.3 assists. He is the hub of Atlanta's offence, and the short frontcourt rotation makes his rebounding more important tonight.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected for 21.3 points and 3.7 threes. That three-point number is the highest on either roster. Miami's defence has given up plenty, and he is the most direct way Atlanta can stretch it.

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum projects at 19.5 points and 3.8 assists. He adds scoring and creation when Johnson sits, which helps Atlanta keep a steady rhythm through the rotation.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected for 27.9 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He is the best player on the floor and Miami's main source of offence. With the Heat averaging 109.0 points, they rely on him heavily.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo projects at 19.6 points and 10.2 rebounds. With Atlanta short on big men, his work on the glass could swing possessions, and he is Miami's best route to second-chance points.

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell is projected for 12.8 points and 6.1 assists. He sets the pace for Miami. If he gets them into the open floor, they can keep the game closer than the form suggests.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Aaron Wiggins
    Under 17.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 1/5 last 5 · 78.5%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    Bobby Portis
    Under 7.5 Rebounds · 2/5 last 5 · 80.9%
    BetRivers1.68
  • Player
    Giannis Antetokounmpo
    Under 48.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 2/5 last 5 · 70.9%
    BetMGM1.91
  • Player
    Pelle Larsson
    Under 0.5 Threes · 2/5 last 5 · 55.7%
    BetRivers2.63

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 15.78.

Market 5.1%Statz 25.1%+20.0%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    Nickeil Alexander-Walker
    Over 2.5 Threes · 3/5 last 5 · 68%
    BetParx1.64
  • Player
    Onyeka Okongwu
    Over 18.5 Pts + Reb · 1/5 last 5 · 60.4%
    BetRivers1.89
  • Player
    Tim Hardaway Jr.
    Over 1.5 Threes · 2/5 last 5 · 59.2%
    Betway1.74
  • Player
    CJ McCollum
    Over 19.5 Pts + Reb · 3/5 last 5 · 57.6%
    BetMGM1.91
BetParx9.81
Market 8.4%Statz 14%+5.6%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them 62% and a line of -4.0, against a market spread of -3.5. That half-point gap leans to Atlanta, but it is a thin edge. The Hawks are at home, they score freely, and Miami have conceded heavily in all four games. The counterpoint is that Atlanta have lost their last two and are short of big men.

On the total, the model projects 240.6 against a market line of 240.5. The gap is 0.1 points, so the model leans to neither side. The total is a pass on the numbers.

Statz pick: Atlanta Hawks -3.5 at 1.95 (Fanatics).

For a same game parlay to look at, the Scoring slip pairs Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 2.5 Threes, Onyeka Okongwu Over 18.5 Pts + Reb, CJ McCollum Over 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast and Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 1.5 Threes at 9.29 with DraftKings. See all slips on the Same Game Parlays page. No price is certain to win, and parlays carry more risk than single bets.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds before you bet.

MIA @ ATL questions

Who does the model favour in Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks?
The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 62%, with the Miami Heat at 38%. The model line is Hawks -4.0, which compares with a market spread of -3.5. The model and the market agree on the side.
What is the spread for Heat vs Hawks on 28 October?
The market spread is Atlanta Hawks -3.5 and Miami Heat +3.5. The best price on the Hawks is 1.95 at Fanatics, and the best price on the Heat is 1.91 at FanDuel. Some books post different lines, so compare before betting.
What is the total and which way does the model lean?
The market total is 240.5, and the Statz model projects 240.6. That is a gap of 0.1 points, so the model leans to neither the over nor the under. On the numbers, the total is a pass.
Who is injured for the Hawks and Heat?
Atlanta are without Henri Veesaar, who has a torn right ACL, and Mouhamed Gueye, who has a fractured left foot and a listed return date of 20 November. The Miami Heat have nobody on the injury report.
How are the Heat and Hawks playing this season?
The Hawks are 2-2, beating Charlotte 128-81 and Orlando 132-125 before losing twice to Houston. The Heat are 0-4, with defeats to Dallas, Charlotte, Detroit and Minnesota. Miami average 109.0 points for and 121.8 against.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Miami Heat or Atlanta Hawks?

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks with a 62% win probability, leaving the Miami Heat at 38%. Bet365 leans the other way, pricing the Miami Heat as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is -159 for the Atlanta Hawks and +133 for the Miami Heat.

What is the spread and total for Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks?

Bet365 lists the Atlanta Hawks at +1.0 with the total at 241.0 for Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks. The Statz model makes the Atlanta Hawks 4.0-point favourites and projects a 240.9 total. That total is 0.1 points below the market number, so the model leans to the under.

Which player props stand out for Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks?

The board's headline lines are Giannis Antetokounmpo 59.5+ points at 36.00, Davion Mitchell 14.5+ assists at 29.00 and Bam Adebayo 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00. For the Atlanta Hawks the model projects Jalen Johnson for 22.7 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker for 21.4 points. For the Miami Heat it projects Giannis Antetokounmpo for 27.9 points and Bam Adebayo for 19.6 points.