Miami HeatHeat
Wed, Oct 287:00 PMETAtlanta
Atlanta HawksHawks
MIA2.30ATL1.77SpreadATL -2.5Total240.5via Polymarket

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks: Preview, Odds and Props

The Statz model for this game: win probability, spread, total and every player projection: Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, 28 October 2026. The written preview, odds and model sit on the main preview page.

Heat vs Hawks match projection

What the model expects: the score, the result, the totals and how both sides' numbers are likely to fall.

Projected result

Projected points, the result and the totals.

MIAHeat
118.5-122.5
Projected points
ATLHawks
Projected marginATL by 4.0
71%
Over 230.5 points
51%
Over 240.5 points
31%
Over 250.5 points
34%
Hawks by 10+
30%
Decided by 5 or fewer
30%
Decided by 15+

Points matrix

How both sides' points are likely to fall. Darker is likelier; gold is the most likely.

Hawks points
Heat points
<104104-111112-119120-127128-135136+
<1040.8%1.7%2.5%2.2%1.1%0.4%
104-1111.1%2.7%4.8%4.9%2.9%1.3%
112-1191.2%3.4%6.8%7.9%5.4%2.7%
120-1270.8%2.5%5.7%7.5%5.8%3.5%
128-1350.3%1.1%2.8%4.2%3.7%2.6%
136+0.1%0.3%0.9%1.7%1.7%1.5%

Projected team stats

Each market split between the sides, with the chance of clearing the lines either side of the projected total.

By teamHeatHawks
Points118.5122.5
Rebounds44.646.1
Assists28.629.7
Threes13.215.6
Steals7.98.9
Blocks4.94.4
Turnovers15.313.3
Game totalsBoth sides combined
Points241.0 projected
Over 236.5 59%Over 241.5 49%Over 246.5 39%
Rebounds90.7 projected
Over 87.5 64%Over 90.5 51%Over 93.5 38%
Assists58.3 projected
Over 56.5 59%Over 58.5 49%Over 60.5 39%
Threes28.8 projected
Over 26.5 66%Over 28.5 52%Over 30.5 38%
Steals16.8 projected
Over 15.5 63%Over 16.5 53%Over 17.5 43%
Blocks9.3 projected
Over 8.5 60%Over 9.5 48%Over 10.5 36%
Turnovers28.6 projected
Over 27.5 59%Over 28.5 51%Over 29.5 43%

Projected points

Projected points for every player, and the chance each one reaches 10+ and 20+.