Philadelphia 76ers76ers
Wed, Oct 287:00 PMETIndiana
Indiana PacersPacers
PHI1.55IND2.82SpreadIND +5.5Total235.5via Polymarket

Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

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PHI

Statz pick

Philadelphia 76ers to win

We give the Philadelphia 76ers a 60% chance, against 40% for the Indiana Pacers. See the full projection →

60%
PHI to win
Polymarket1.55

The model favours the Philadelphia 76ers at 59% to beat the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday 28 October, with a model line of -3.0 against a market line of -1.5. Indiana are missing Ivica Zubac, which thins the middle. The model total of 237.0 sits just under the market 237.5, a small lean to the under.

The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the 76ers the favourite at 59% to win, and the market agrees on the side, with Philadelphia -1.5 and the total at 237.5. The model wants a slightly bigger number than the market is asking. Here is why.

How the teams arrive

The 76ers are 3-1 this season, with a sequence of L W W W, most recent first. They opened with a 106-100 win at New York, then beat Cleveland 114-106 and Milwaukee 127-116, both at home. The latest result was a 93-106 home loss to Detroit, which stands out as their weakest scoring night. They average 110.0 points for and 107.0 against, so their wins have come through control of the margin rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The Pacers are 2-2, with a sequence of L W L W. Their results swing hard. They beat Brooklyn 136-109 on the road, then dropped a 105-121 home game to Dallas, and they lost 102-110 at Milwaukee last time out. They also edged New Orleans 123-120 away. Indiana average 116.5 points for and 115.0 against. That is a team that scores freely and leaks plenty, and tonight it is at home.

Team news and lineups

Indiana carry the heavier list. Ivica Zubac is out with a left ankle sprain and is listed day-to-day, with 30 October as his return date. That removes the natural big from the middle, so centre minutes move toward Jay Huff and Obi Toppin, who is also managing a hand issue. Against Joel Embiid, that is a real rebounding and rim-protection question for the Pacers.

The guard rotation is thin as well. T.J. McConnell is out with a right hamstring strain and is still waiting on his season debut, with 30 October the target. Ben Sheppard is out after surgery on a torn left meniscus, with 1 December listed as his return date. Johnny Furphy is out with a torn right ACL. The backup guard minutes have to go somewhere, and it puts more load on the main ball handlers.

The 76ers are missing depth up front rather than stars. Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a ruptured right Achilles. Dominick Barlow has a low back stress reaction, with 2 November the earliest return. Tacko Fall is out with a left quadriceps strain and is viewed as week-to-week. Jabari Walker is out with left knee soreness and could return on 30 October. Embiid should absorb most of the big-man minutes, which is worth watching if the game turns physical.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam is projected for 23.5 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists. With Zubac out, he is the Pacers' best source of both scoring and rebounding, and the projection leans on him to carry that load.

Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton is projected for 17.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.8 assists, along with 2.5 threes. He runs the offence that has put up 136 on one night this season. With the backup guards out, his playmaking minutes matter more than his own scoring.

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard is projected for 14.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists. He is the second ball handler on a depleted guard group, so his assist figure is the one to watch.

Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey is projected for 23.4 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists, plus 2.4 threes. He leads the Philadelphia attack and tests an Indiana defence that has allowed 115.0 a game.

Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid is projected for 23.3 points, 10.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He is the clearest mismatch on the floor, facing a Pacers frontcourt without Zubac, and he has little backup behind him.

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown is projected for 22.9 points, 7.8 rebounds and 4.2 assists. His rebounding number stands out for a guard, and it adds to the 76ers' edge on the glass.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer3 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    VJ Edgecombe
    Over 8.5 Reb + Ast · 4/5 last 5 · 65.7%
    PP2.10
  • Player
    Anfernee Simons
    Under 8.5 Points · 4/5 last 5 · 64.7%
    Caesars1.78
  • Player
    Pascal Siakam
    Over 6.5 Rebounds · 4/5 last 5 · 64.6%
    Bet3651.80
FanDuel6.14
Market 13.6%Statz 27.5%+13.9%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Tyrese Haliburton
    Under 9.5 Assists · 2/5 last 5 · 79.7%
    Caesars1.83
  • Player
    Jay Huff
    Under 15.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 73.8%
    BetParx1.83
  • Player
    Pascal Siakam
    Under 3.5 Assists · 3/5 last 5 · 63.8%
    DraftKings2.23
  • Player
    VJ Edgecombe
    Over 8.5 Reb + Ast · 4/5 last 5 · 65.7%
    PP2.10
PP13.83
Market 5.6%Statz 24.7%+19.1%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    VJ Edgecombe
    Over 20.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 4/5 last 5 · 63%
    BetParx1.92
  • Player
    Jaylen Brown
    Over 27.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 55.2%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Pascal Siakam
    Over 29.5 Pts + Reb · 3/5 last 5 · 52.4%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Andrew Nembhard
    Over 16.5 Pts + Reb · 3/5 last 5 · 50.4%
    BetMGM1.95
BetRivers14.08
Market 5.8%Statz 9.2%+3.4%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz prediction

The model takes the 76ers. It gives them a 59% win probability and a model line of -3.0, against a market spread of -1.5. That is a gap of 1.5 points in the model's favour, and both sides agree on the favourite. Indiana's injuries at centre and guard are the main reason the model sits above the market, and the head-to-head record this season has not been a factor in the numbers.

On the total, the model projects 237.0 against a market number of 237.5. The gap is 0.5 points and the lean is the under. It is a small lean, not a strong one. Both teams give up plenty of points, but the 76ers' recent scores have been more modest, at 110.0 a game.

Statz pick: Philadelphia 76ers -1.5 at 1.87 with DraftKings.

For a same game parlay to look at, the "Safer" slip pairs LeBron James Under 1.5 Threes, VJ Edgecombe Over 8.5 Reb + Ast, Anfernee Simons Under 8.5 Points and Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds. It is priced at 8.49 with Paddy Power. See all the slips on the Same Game Parlays page.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest prices and injury news before you act.

PHI @ IND questions

Who does the model favour in 76ers at Pacers?
The Statz model favours the Philadelphia 76ers at 59%, which leaves the Indiana Pacers at 41%. The model line is 76ers -3.0, so it is a little more confident in Philadelphia than the market, which has them at -1.5.
What is the market line for 76ers vs Pacers?
The market has the Philadelphia 76ers as 1.5-point favourites, with the Indiana Pacers at +1.5. The total is 237.5. The best price on the 76ers spread is 1.87 at DraftKings, and the best home price is 2.3 at BetMGM.
Is the model leaning over or under 237.5?
The model projects a total of 237.0, which is 0.5 points below the market total of 237.5. That makes the lean the under, but the gap is small, so it is a light lean rather than a strong one.
Which Pacers are out against the 76ers?
Indiana are without Ivica Zubac (ankle), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ben Sheppard (meniscus) and Johnny Furphy (ACL). Zubac matters most, because his absence removes the starting-calibre big man from the middle against Joel Embiid.
How have the 76ers and Pacers started this season?
The 76ers are 3-1, with wins over New York, Cleveland and Milwaukee and a 93-106 loss to Detroit. The Pacers are 2-2, with a 136-109 win at Brooklyn and a 105-121 home loss to Dallas.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Philadelphia 76ers or Indiana Pacers?

The Statz model favours the Philadelphia 76ers with a 60% win probability, leaving the Indiana Pacers at 40%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Philadelphia 76ers as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is +159 for the Indiana Pacers and -192 for the Philadelphia 76ers.

What is the spread and total for Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers?

Bet365 lists the Indiana Pacers at +1.0 with the total at 237.0 for Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers?

The board's headline lines are Tyrese Maxey 49.5+ points at 51.00, Tyrese Haliburton 17.5+ assists at 28.00 and Joel Embiid 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00. For the Indiana Pacers the model projects Pascal Siakam for 23.4 points and Tyrese Haliburton for 17.4 points. For the Philadelphia 76ers it projects Joel Embiid for 23.4 points and Tyrese Maxey for 23.4 points.