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Fri, Nov 138:30 PMETHouston
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UTA11.76HOU1.09via Polymarket

Utah Jazz vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 13

Updated Nov 12, with the latest lineups and odds

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HOU

Statz pick

Houston Rockets to win

We give the Houston Rockets a 88% chance, against 12% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

88%
HOU to win
Polymarket1.09

The Statz model makes the Houston Rockets 88% favourites over the Utah Jazz, with a projected margin of 15.9 points and a total of 219.9. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Jaren Jackson Jr., out with a torn MCL, in a Utah frontcourt already missing Jusuf Nurkic.

The Utah Jazz visit the Houston Rockets on Friday 13 November, with tip at 8:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Houston the clear favourite at 88%, with a projected margin of 15.9 points. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a line for this game. This preview works from the model alone and explains why it sees such a wide gap.

How the teams arrive

Houston come in at 7-3 over their last 10, averaging 114.3 points for and 105.8 against. The sequence is W W L L W W L W W W. Recent wins include 115-108 over Golden State and 110-100 over Denver at home. The standout road result is the 132-100 win at Milwaukee. The losses were 99-102 at Phoenix and 107-117 to Minnesota. Even the defeats were mostly tight, and the Rockets are playing this one at home.

Utah arrive at 0-10 over their last 10, with an average of 105.6 points for and 117.5 against. They have lost by double digits several times: 108-123 to Orlando, 97-119 at San Antonio, 90-112 to Portland and 100-115 at Minnesota. Their closest results were 105-110 against Memphis and 109-115 against Miami. This is a road game for a team that has not found a way to win in 10 tries.

Team news and lineups

Utah carry the heavier list. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL in his right knee and a timeline of 6-to-8 weeks. Lauri Markkanen is out with a non-displaced fracture in his right hand and will miss at least a month. Jusuf Nurkic is still out with a right foot injury and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.

That is three frontcourt players gone at once. The minutes at big man go to a timeshare, with Jaxson Hayes positioned to benefit, along with Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba. The scoring burden shifts to the guards and wings. Keyonte George also carries an ankle sprain, and his status was described as unclear. Utah have little size, little shooting depth and few proven creators.

Houston are not at full strength either. Steven Adams (right soleus strain) and Clint Capela (right ankle sprain) are both out. Both have been talked about as possible returns on 15 November, so neither is expected tonight. Their absence means Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. should see more time at center. That costs Houston some size, but it matters far less against a Utah frontcourt in this state.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is projected for 21.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 threes. He is the top scorer on the Houston side, and Utah have few long, switchable defenders left to bother him.

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun is projected for 20.0 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.7 assists. With Adams and Capela out, he carries the interior and the passing hub. His rebounding and playmaking are the clearest edge against a thin Utah front line.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. is projected for 15.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 threes. Houston's injury report points to him taking more minutes at center, so his rebounding and floor spacing both matter tonight.

Keyonte George

Keyonte George is projected for 19.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.8 threes. He is Utah's top scorer in the model, and his ankle is the main thing to check before tip. If he sits, the Jazz offence loses its main creator.

Darryn Peterson

Darryn Peterson is projected for 14.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.8 threes. With Markkanen out, he is one of the guards asked to lead the offence. The usage is there, though the efficiency against Houston's defence is the question.

Airious Bailey

Airious Bailey is projected for 14.3 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.8 threes. He may spend more time at power forward with the big men out, which makes him Utah's most important forward.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Houston Rockets, with an 88% win probability and a line of -15.9. Utah project to 102.0 points against 117.9 for Houston, and the model total is 219.9. That total fits the shape of the game: Houston score comfortably, and Utah struggle to match them with so many frontcourt players out.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model line or the 219.9 total offers value. Wait for the market and check it against these figures. A posted spread well short of -15.9 would be the one to look at on the Houston side. A posted total well off 219.9 would point to the over or the under. Check the NBA odds page when lines appear.

Statz pick: Houston Rockets, 88% win probability, model line -15.9, model total 219.9.

Lines move before tip, and so can injury news, so recheck both before you act.

UTA @ HOU questions

Who does the model favour in Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets?
The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 88%, with a projected margin of 15.9 points. The model line is -15.9 for Houston and +15.9 for the Utah Jazz. Projected points are 117.9 for Houston and 102.0 for Utah.
What is the model total for Jazz at Rockets?
The model total is 219.9 points. That comes from 117.9 projected for the Houston Rockets and 102.0 for the Utah Jazz. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets as of this preview. Without a market number, we cannot compare the model against it. Check the Statz NBA odds page for updates before tip.
Which injuries matter most for the Utah Jazz?
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL and a 6-to-8 week timeline. Lauri Markkanen is out with a hand fracture for at least a month, and Jusuf Nurkic is out with a foot injury. Utah are very short in the frontcourt.
How have the Jazz and Rockets played lately?
The Houston Rockets are 7-3 over their last 10, averaging 114.3 points for and 105.8 against. The Utah Jazz are 0-10 over the same stretch, averaging 105.6 points for and 117.5 against. Houston are at home tonight.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Utah Jazz or Houston Rockets?

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets with a 88% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 12%. Over their last five games the Houston Rockets are 3-2 and the Utah Jazz are 0-5. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets?

No spread or total is posted yet for Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets?

For Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets, the model projects Kevin Durant for 21.4 points and Alperen Sengun for 20.0 points for the Houston Rockets. For the Utah Jazz it projects Keyonte George for 19.2 points and Darryn Peterson for 14.6 points.