NBA Game Simulator
The Statz NBA game simulator plays a game 10,000 times from our projection and counts what happens: who wins, how often it goes to overtime, which side covers, whether the total goes over, and every team stat line. Pick a game to watch the run settle on the model.
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Quick answers3 questions
How does the NBA game simulator work?
It starts from the Statz projection for the game: the expected margin, the expected total and the win chance. Each simulated game draws a 48-minute margin and total from the spread of results NBA games actually show around a line, settles a level game in overtime, and records the final score.
Why does the run finish on the model figures?
The simulated games come from the same model the page prices exactly, so after 10,000 games the counts are within a point or so of the exact chances, and the page then shows the exact figures. Run it again and the luck changes; the model does not.
How often does an NBA game go to overtime?
About one game in sixteen when the teams are even, and less the bigger the favourite. The simulator prices a level score after 48 minutes from the closeness of the projected margin, calibrated on how often games have actually finished level, then plays overtime out with the winning margins overtime games have produced.