Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors game simulator
Boston Celtics visit Toronto Raptors on Wednesday 11 November. Played 10,000 times from our projection, the Boston Celtics win 69% of games, the average score is BOS 112.1-105.5 TOR on a projected total of 217.6, and 4.6% of games go to overtime.
Celtics vs Raptors, played 10,000 times
Every game is drawn from our projection: a 48-minute margin and total, and overtime when it ends level.
Projected result
The model's exact chances: the average score, the result and the headline markets.
Celtics
RaptorsPoints matrix
How both sides' points fall across the games. Darker is likelier.
Raptors| 0-88 | 89-96 | 97-104 | 105-112 | 113-120 | 121-128 | 129+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-88 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 89-96 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 97-104 | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 105-112 | 2.1% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 113-120 | 1.4% | 3.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 121-128 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 129+ | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
Winning margin
The share of games won by each margin, overtime included. Bars are this run, the dark line is the model.
Each game is drawn from the model's own margin, total and overtime chances, so the run settles on its exact figures as it grows.
Market explorer
Pick a market and set any line: the chance of each side, from the simulation's full distribution.
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 207.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 212.5 | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| 217.5 | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 222.5 | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 227.5 | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Result and winning margin
The 48-minute result, and each side's winning margin as the books post the bands, overtime included.
| BOS | Win by | TOR |
|---|---|---|
15.3% | 1-5 | 11.7% |
14.8% | 6-10 | 8.5% |
12.7% | 11-15 | 5.2% |
10.1% | 16-20 | 3.0% |
7.1% | 21-25 | 1.6% |
4.5% | 26-30 | 0.7% |
4.5% | 31+ | 0.4% |
Related projections
Quick answers3 questions
How does the NBA game simulator work?
It starts from the Statz projection for the game: the expected margin, the expected total and the win chance. Each simulated game draws a 48-minute margin and total from the spread of results NBA games actually show around a line, settles a level game in overtime, and records the final score.
Why does the run finish on the model figures?
The simulated games come from the same model the page prices exactly, so after 10,000 games the counts are within a point or so of the exact chances, and the page then shows the exact figures. Run it again and the luck changes; the model does not.
How often does an NBA game go to overtime?
About one game in sixteen when the teams are even, and less the bigger the favourite. The simulator prices a level score after 48 minutes from the closeness of the projected margin, calibrated on how often games have actually finished level, then plays overtime out with the winning margins overtime games have produced.