Detroit PistonsPistons
Thu, Nov 127:00 PMETWashington
Washington WizardsWizards
DET1.29WAS4.44via Polymarket

Detroit Pistons vs Washington Wizards Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 12

Updated Nov 11, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

DET

Statz pick

Detroit Pistons to win

We give the Detroit Pistons a 75% chance, against 25% for the Washington Wizards. See the full projection →

75%
DET to win
Polymarket1.29

Statz favours the Detroit Pistons at 75% to beat the Washington Wizards, with a model line of -8.9 and a projected total of 220.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Jalen Duren, out for Detroit with a hamstring strain.

The Detroit Pistons visit the Washington Wizards on Thursday 12 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Detroit the favourite at 75%, with a model line of -8.9. The market has no line to set against that yet, because no bookmaker has posted one. Here is what drives the number.

How the teams arrive

Washington is 3-7 over its last 10, and the sequence reads L L L L W W L L W L, most recent first. The Wizards average 106.1 points for and 113.1 against over that run. The scores that stand out are heavy losses: 75-114 at OKC and 111-122 at Detroit on 9 November. They also lost 132-139 at ATL, so the defence has been the problem. The best results were 95-79 at home against CHA and 103-94 at ORL. Tonight they are at home.

Detroit is 7-3 over its last 10, with a sequence of W L L W W W L W W W. The Pistons average 112.7 points for and 104.6 against, a healthy gap. Their best results were 124-91 at CHA, 110-94 at BKN and the 122-111 win over Washington on 9 November. The losses were close: 116-121 against LAL and 106-112 against PHI. This is a road game for them.

Team news and lineups

Washington is short of bodies. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a left hip impingement and has yet to make his season debut. His return date is listed as 16 November. Justin Champagnie is out after surgery on a fractured foot, with a return around the All-Star break in February. Reece Beekman is out with a right AC joint injury and a return date of 3 December. Jamir Watkins is out after ACL surgery and is unlikely to play much this season.

The effect is thin depth at guard and on the wing. Minutes pile onto the main rotation, and the club's own reporting says Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington must pick up the slack. A team already giving up 113.1 points a game over its last 10 cannot easily afford that.

Detroit has two absences. Jalen Duren is out with a right hamstring strain. He has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, with a listed return of 24 November. Isaiah Joe is out with a bruised hip, his seventh consecutive missed game, and his listed return date is 17 November. Duren's absence is the one that matters. Paul Reed should keep a sizable role in the frontcourt, and the model has him at 6.4 rebounds.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is projected at 19.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.9 assists. He is Washington's best route to staying in this game, and with the frontcourt thinned by injury he carries the interior on both ends.

Trae Young

Trae Young is projected at 17.6 points, 6.8 assists and 2.1 threes. With the guard depth reduced, he runs the offence almost alone, and his playmaking sets the Wizards' ceiling.

KyShawn George

KyShawn George is projected at 14.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.0 threes. He is the third scoring option, and Washington needs his shooting to stretch a Detroit defence that has allowed 104.6 points a game.

Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham is projected at 21.5 points, 5.6 rebounds and 8.5 assists, the highest points and assists lines on the board. He drives Detroit's projected 114.5 points and is the main reason the model sees a clear gap.

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson is projected at 15.7 points and 3.2 threes, the highest three-point figure in the game. Against a Washington defence that has conceded heavily, his spacing matters.

Paul Reed

Paul Reed is projected at 10.2 points and 6.4 rebounds. He steps into the minutes left by Duren's absence, and his work on the glass keeps Detroit solid inside.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Detroit Pistons. It gives them a 75% win probability and projects them to win by 8.9, which is the -8.9 model line, with the Washington Wizards at +8.9. The projected score is 114.5 to 105.6, with a model total of 220.1.

There is no market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game, so there is no edge to measure and no total lean to give. Treat 220.1 as the model's number only, and compare it with the posted total once it appears on the NBA odds page.

The case for Detroit rests on the form gap, 7-3 against 3-7 over the last 10, and on the 122-111 win over Washington on 9 November. Washington's injury list adds to its problems, and Detroit is missing only Duren and Joe.

Statz pick: Detroit Pistons -8.9 (model line), 75% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the number again once a book posts it. See the full preview for the model, form and recent meetings.

DET @ WAS questions

Who does the model favour in Pistons vs Wizards?
The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons at 75% to win. It projects them to win by 8.9, a model line of -8.9, with the Washington Wizards at +8.9. The projected score is 114.5 to 105.6.
What is the projected total for Pistons vs Wizards?
The Statz model projects a total of 220.1 points, with Detroit at 114.5 and Washington at 105.6. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it against.
Has a bookmaker posted odds for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make. Lines move before tip, and the NBA odds page will show them once they are posted.
Which injury matters most for Detroit?
Jalen Duren is out with a right hamstring strain. He has begun on-court activity and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, with a listed return of 24 November. Paul Reed should keep a sizable role in his place. Isaiah Joe is also out.
Who is out for the Washington Wizards?
Tristan Vukcevic (left hip), Justin Champagnie (foot surgery), Reece Beekman (AC joint) and Jamir Watkins (ACL surgery) are all listed as out. Vukcevic has a return date of 16 November, and Beekman's is 3 December.
How did Detroit and Washington meet this season?
They met on 9 November, and the Detroit Pistons won 122-111 at home. Washington has gone 3-7 over its last 10, while Detroit is 7-3. Tonight the game moves to Washington.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Detroit Pistons or Washington Wizards?

The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons with a 75% win probability, leaving the Washington Wizards at 25%. Over their last five games the Washington Wizards are 1-4 and the Detroit Pistons are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards?

No spread or total is posted yet for Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards?

For Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, the model projects Anthony Davis for 19.3 points and Trae Young for 17.6 points for the Washington Wizards. For the Detroit Pistons it projects Cade Cunningham for 21.5 points and Duncan Robinson for 15.7 points.