Denver NuggetsNuggets
Wed, Nov 118:00 PMETMemphis
Memphis GrizzliesGrizzlies
DEN1.68MEM2.47via Polymarket

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

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DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 59% chance, against 41% for the Memphis Grizzlies. See the full projection →

59%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.68

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 59% to beat the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday 11 November, with a model line of -3.0 and a projected total of 230.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet. The injury to watch is Isaiah Stewart's knee, since Memphis is thin on big men with Quinten Post also day-to-day.

The Denver Nuggets visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 59%, with a model line of -3.0. The market has not posted a line yet, so there is no price to compare against. Here is what is driving the number.

How the teams arrive

Memphis is 7-3 over its last 10 and averages 117.9 points for and 110.8 against in that run. The Grizzlies have been swingy. They won six in a row before dropping three straight at home, including a 97-128 loss to OKC and a 134-135 loss to NOP. They reset with a 118-102 win at Toronto on Monday. Earlier results include a 136-105 win over SAC.

Denver is 5-4 over its last nine, averaging 113.6 points for and 112.8 against. The Nuggets arrive off a 100-110 loss at Houston, after a 114-102 win at Indiana. They also beat Toronto 128-109 at home and NOP 141-135. The weak spots are an 84-96 loss at OKC and a 114-134 home loss to GSW. Their margins are thin, and that is why the model edge is modest.

Team news and lineups

Memphis carries the longer list, and it is concentrated in the frontcourt and backcourt depth. Isaiah Stewart is day-to-day with a right knee bone bruise and has missed consecutive games. Wednesday is his next chance to return. Quinten Post is also day-to-day. He left Monday's win at Toronto with a head injury after two minutes and is questionable. If both sit, Memphis has little size to throw at a Denver frontcourt that lives on rebounds and passing.

Scotty Pippen Jr. is out with back soreness and has missed five straight, which leaves Cam Spencer in line for more minutes. Richie Saunders is out as he recovers from a torn right ACL, with a return date of 1 December.

For Denver, Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and will be re-evaluated in six weeks. His absence shifts minutes toward Tyus Jones and possibly Ryan Nembhard. It is a depth loss rather than a loss at the top of the rotation, and the Nuggets are the healthier side on the night.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome is projected for 21.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.7 threes. He is the top scorer on the Memphis side in this model. With Pippen out, he carries the ball-handling load.

Cameron Boozer

Cameron Boozer is projected for 14.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists. His rebounding matters most if Stewart and Post are unavailable.

Cedric Coward

Cedric Coward is projected for 12.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He gives Memphis rebounding from the wing, which becomes more important with the big men in doubt.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 24.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 8.0 assists. He is the centre of Denver's offence and the main reason the model leans their way.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 24.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 3.4 threes. That three-point volume is the highest of any player in this game.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon is projected for 13.3 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He is the Nuggets' third scoring option and a physical matchup for a thin Memphis frontline.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets at 59%, against 41% for the Memphis Grizzlies. It projects a Denver margin of 3.0 points, a model line of -3.0, with Denver at 116.6 points and Memphis at 113.5. The model total is 230.1.

No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no model-versus-market comparison yet. The market side is missing, and we will not guess at it. There is no total lean to give until a number appears. Check NBA odds once lines are up.

The case for Denver rests on Jokic and Murray against a Memphis frontcourt with two big men questionable. The case for Memphis is home court and a 7-3 run, but its recent results have swung wildly.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets, 59% win probability, model line -3.0. Lines move before tip, so compare any posted spread with the model line before acting.

DEN @ MEM questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Nuggets at Grizzlies?
The model favours the Denver Nuggets at 59%, with the Memphis Grizzlies at 41%. It projects a Denver margin of 3.0 points, which gives a model line of -3.0 for Denver and +3.0 for Memphis.
What is the projected total for Nuggets vs Grizzlies?
The model total is 230.1 points. It projects 116.6 for the Denver Nuggets and 113.5 for the Memphis Grizzlies. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a betting line been posted for this game?
No. As of the latest data, no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for Denver at Memphis. Statz will not quote a market price until one is available, and lines move before tip.
Which Memphis players are injured for this game?
Isaiah Stewart (knee) and Quinten Post (head) are day-to-day. Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) is out, and Richie Saunders (ACL) is out with a return date of 1 December.
Is anyone out for the Denver Nuggets?
Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Tyus Jones and possibly Ryan Nembhard are in line for more minutes in the meantime.
What time is Nuggets vs Grizzlies on Wednesday 11 November?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday 11 November, with the Denver Nuggets visiting the Memphis Grizzlies in Memphis.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or Memphis Grizzlies?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 59% win probability, leaving the Memphis Grizzlies at 41%. Over their last five games the Memphis Grizzlies are 2-3 and the Denver Nuggets are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies?

No spread or total is posted yet for Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies?

For Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, the model projects Ty Jerome for 21.0 points and Cameron Boozer for 14.4 points for the Memphis Grizzlies. For the Denver Nuggets it projects Nikola Jokic for 24.1 points and Jamal Murray for 24.1 points.